Expectations were high for Boise State going into the 2024 season. And the Broncos delivered.
Boise State went 11-1 during the regular season, only losing to Oregon by three points on the road. Then they won the Mountain West Championship over UNLV and earned a bye in the College Football Playoff. Their season ended with a loss against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Some star players like Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman Trophy finalist who nearly broke the FBS single-season rushing record, are gone. But some standout players are also back for the Broncos, which makes some people believe they could be back in the CFP in 2025.
Boise State Football’s Mountain West Title Betting Odds
Boise State’s odds to win the Mountain West are -150, via BetMGM. The Broncos’ odds of making the conference championship are -425.
Boise State’s odds of returning to the College Football Playoff are +175, and the Broncos’ odds of missing the CFP are -220.
Boise State Football’s Win Total Over/Under
Boise State’s win total Over/Under is 9.5, with Under 9.5 at +175 and Over 9.5 at -210.
Boise State Football’s 2025 Schedule
Aug. 28 @ USF
Sept. 5 vs. Eastern Washington
Sept. 20 @ Air Force
Sept. 27 vs. App State
Oct. 4 @ Notre Dame
Oct. 11 vs. New Mexico
Oct. 18 vs. UNLV
Oct. 24 @ Nevada
Nov. 1 vs. Fresno State
Nov. 15 @ San Diego State
Nov. 22 vs. Colorado State
Nov. 28 @ Utah State
Dec. 5 Mountain West Championship
Bold indicates Mountain West contests
For more Group of Five coverage, follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
Key Boise State Football Returners
2024 All-Mountain West 1st Team
TE Matt Lauter
OL Kage Casey
EDGE Jayden Virgin-Morgan
LB Marco Notarainni
2nd Team
DL Braxton Fely
Honorable Mention
DB Ty Benefield
QB Maddux Madsen
Boise State Football Favored To Return To The College Football Playoff
Jeanty is now in the NFL, as are some of Boise State’s other outstanding players from last year like defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein. But the Broncos are still the favorite among Group of Five teams to make a College Football Playoff appearance in 2025.
Boise State has just too much talent on both sides of the ball to doubt that the Broncos will contend for another Mountain West title.
Beginning at quarterback, Maddux Madsen is returning after a full year as Boise State’s starter. The all-conference honorable mention threw for 3,018 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 62% of his passes. He was also second on the team with 221 yards and five touchdowns rushing.
Boise State’s running back room is loaded, even without Jeanty. Expectations are high for Sire Gaines if he can stay healthy. He ran for 156 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes for 44 yards and another score in three games. Fresno State transfer and former All-Mountain West honorable mention running back Malik Sherrod is expected to make an impact, and Jambres Dubar and Dylan Riley also showed they have some potential last year.
The Broncos’ leading receiver last year, Cam Camper, is gone. But G5 All-American tight end Matt Lauter turns after catching 47 passes for 619 yards and seven touchdowns. Wide receiver Latrell Caples is also back after adding 473 yards and five touchdowns on 38 catches.
G5 All-American left tackle Kage Casey will lead the Broncos up front. Hall Schmidt is back after starting 12 games at right tackle, as are Kyle Cox and Daylon Metoyer who both started at that position as well. Interior offensive linemen Roger Carreon, Tyler Keinath, Mason Randolph, Zach Holmes, and Jason Steele are also all back after starting multiple games in 2024.
The Broncos have stars on the defensive side of the ball as well. Jayden Virgin-Morgan, a G5 All-American EDGE, is back after ranking in the top 20 in the FBS with 10 sacks. He also recorded 40 tackles, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. First-team all-conference linebacker Marco Notarainni is also back after tallying 60 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three passes defended, and two fumble recoveries.
All-conference honorable mention defensive back Ty Benefield is returning after leading Boise State with 82 tackles to go with two interceptions, three passes defended, two fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble. Defensive lineman Braxton Fely, who made the All-Mountain West second team, is also returning after tallying 24 tackles and 5.5 sacks in 2024. A’Marion McCoy will be another stable presence in the secondary after breaking up 13 passes, totaling 60 tackles, and intercepting a pass that he returned for a touchdown.
In fact, eight of Boise State’s top 13 tacklers from last season are back. So this Broncos defense should be solid once again.
Boise State Football Season Prediction
I predict Boise State will win the Mountain West, will make it back to the College Football Playoff, and will go Over 9.5 wins.
There’s no doubt the Broncos face a tough schedule this year. They obviously also lost some talent after last season. But they have so many standout players coming back that I think head coach Spencer Danielson will lead Boise State back to the CFP.
Games at South Florida and Notre Dame, as well as a home clash against App State, in Boise State’s non-conference slate will not be easy. But I still think the Broncos will win two of those three contests and will be 5-1 going into the second half of their regular season.
And from there, I don’t see another loss before the Mountain West Championship. UNLV will undoubtedly be strong, even if the Rebels have a new coach, but even that game is at home for the Broncos.
I think an 11-1 regular season record, a Mountain West title, and a CFP berth should be the expectation for the 2025 Boise State team.
