In the era of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed to make the CFP.
That team will need to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chances of appearing in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship.
2025 G5 CFP Bracket Predictions
I predict James Madison will make the College Football Playoff as of right now. But Tulane and North Texas could also make the field.
The Case For Tulane
Tulane’s CFP candidacy hinges on its strength of schedule. If you’re someone who values SOS, even if records aren’t the same, then the Green Wave are probably your No. 1 team in the G5.
It’s tough to argue against what Tulane has done this year, especially in the non-conference portion of its schedule. The Green Wave beat Northwestern 23-3 and Duke 34-27 earlier this year.
But Tulane also has two losses. For the sake of this discussion, it would be easy to excuse the Green Wave’s first loss of the year, a 45-10 defeat at Ole Miss, which is arguably a top-five team in the country.
But you can’t ignore Tulane losing 48-26 to UTSA, which is 5-5 right now and fighting for bowl-eligibility. That performance is a massive blemish on an otherwise solid resume.
However, it also can’t be ignored how Tulane has won. The Green Wave have beat teams like East Carolina, Army, and South Alabama all in one-possession games. Where JMU and North Texas have dominated in games they were favored in, Tulane has often barely survived.
Tulane is also outside of the top 40 in the FBS in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. There’s no one aspect of the Green Wave’s roster that would be a clear mismatch for a team in the CFP.
Still, Tulane has eight wins against a better collection of teams compared to James Madison and North Texas, and that needs to be taken into account.
The Case For JMU
James Madison hasn’t had a strong strength of schedule – though it looked good going into the season. Nonetheless, the Dukes have been mostly dominant all year.
After beating Weber State to start, the Dukes were competitive with a good Louisville team and were leading at halftime before eventually falling 28-14. But that Week 2 loss is JMU’s last and only loss of the year thus far.
The Dukes have won eight straight games, and all but one of those contests has been decided by double digits. That one close game, a 14-7 win at Georgia State which is now 1-9 overall, is a game some JMU critics will surely point to.
JMU couldn’t control how some of its opponents, like Texas State and Liberty, haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. But the Dukes can control how they win. They’re seventh in the country in average scoring margin (plus-19.3 points per game).
Led by running back Wayne Knight and linebacker Trent Hendrick, JMU is arguably the most well-rounded G5 team in contention for a CFP spot. The Dukes are 14th in the country in scoring offense (37.2 points per game) and 19th in total offense (458.2 yards per game) while ranking fifth in total defense (257.1 YPG allowed) and 11th in scoring defense (16.2 PPG allowed).
The Case For North Texas
North Texas doesn’t have a strong strength of schedule, but the Mean Green have been mostly dominant, especially in recent weeks.
UNT started the year with five straight wins. Three of those were decided by double digits. But then the Mean Green, in a massively anticipated matchup, lost 63-36 at home to South Florida.
USF is undoubtedly a good team. But the perception of that result has changed since USF lost two conference games and is now out of the CFP picture. And while JMU’s resume is similar to UNT’s, JMU hasn’t been blown out yet.
Still, the Mean Green have been statistically impressive, especially in their last four games since the USF loss. For the season, they’re eighth in the country in average scoring margin at plus-17.9 points per game.
And that’s in large part because of their offense. Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker is fourth in the nation in passing yards (3,000) and seventh in touchdown passes (23). Running back Caleb Hawkins is second in the FBS with 16 rushing TDs and is 15th with 933 rushing yards.
UNT leads the FBS with 45.3 points per game and is fifth with 489.6 yards per game.
UNT’s defense hasn’t been as phenomenal, though. The Mean Green are 70th in the country in points allowed (24.1 per game) and 76th in yards allowed (375.8 per game).
The argument for Tulane compared to James Madison is that Tulane is playing in the American and therefore has a tougher schedule. Even though North Texas is also in the American, UNT can’t necessarily rely on that argument as they won’t have to play teams like Tulane or Memphis – at least until the conference title game. The Mean Green have a weaker strength of schedule and strength of record than JMU, according to ESPN.
2025 CFP Betting Odds For G5 Teams
Here are the college football betting odds for G5 teams to appear in the CFP, via BetMGM:
- North Texas -115
- James Madison +185
- Tulane +500
- South Florida +2500
- Navy +3000
- East Carolina +4000
2025 College Football Championship Predictions
I predict Indiana will play Oregon in the College Football Playoff national championship with Oregon winning.
Right now, I think the Ducks, led by quarterback Dante Moore, have a good shot of dominating in the postseason.
I really like how Indiana has played, and I think the Hoosiers have a good chance to make a deep run considering what QB Fernando Mendoza has done. But I think Oregon is capable of playing at the highest level in the CFP.
College CFP Rankings Projections
I predict Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia will be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
I also predict the Group of Five conference championship winner ranked the next highest will be James Madison, and I believe the CFP Selection Committee will put the Dukes in the 12th spot.
From there, I’m projecting Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Miami, and Ole Miss will be in the CFP.
CFP 2025 Schedule
The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, Dec. 19, and Saturday, Dec. 20. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1. The CFP semifinals will occur on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9.
In the first round, the No. 12-seeded team will play at the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to take on the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will compete at the No. 7 team.
The winner of the 5/12 matchup will play the No. 4-seeded team in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 contest will go against the top-seeded team. The victor in the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 team. And whoever is triumphant in the 7/10 bout will compete against the No. 2-seeded team.
The winners of the games involving the No. 1-seeded team and the No. 4-seeded team will square off in the semifinals, and the winner of the games involving the No. 3-seeded team and the No. 2-seeded team will also play in the semifinals.
The victor of those two contests will see each other in the national championship.
CFP Football Rankings
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee releases its next ranks tonight. If we’re going off of the most recent rankings, the teams in the CFP right now would be:
- No. 1 Ohio State
- No. 2 Indiana
- No. 3 Texas A&M
- No. 4 Alabama
- No. 5 Georgia
- No. 6 Texas Tech
- No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 8 Oregon
- No. 9 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Texas
- No. 11 Miami
- No. 12 South Florida
College Football Playoff Format
The College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams, just like it did last season.
The five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS – decided by the CFP Selection Committee – will make the field, as well as the seven highest-ranked teams that didn’t win a conference title.
Unlike last year, where the four conference title winners ranked the highest earned a bye, the four highest-ranked teams will have a bye and the remaining squads will compete in the first round.
The higher seeds in those matchups will host in the first round. The top four teams with the bye will be given a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and the four teams playing in the two semifinal games will also be assigned to another bowl.
Re-seeding will not occur, nor will alterations be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or contests between teams in the same conference.
CFP Show Schedule
| Time | Date | TV |
| 8:30-9 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Nov. 18 | ESPN |
| 7-8 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Nov. 25 | ESPN |
| 7-7:30 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Dec. 2 | ESPN |
| Noon-3 p.m. ET | Sunday, Dec. 7 | ESPN |
