Navy is among three American Conference teams tied for first place at 6-1 in the league standings as teams enter this weekend playing their final conference game.
In order to stay in contention, Navy must win today, on Thanksgiving, when the Midshipmen visit Memphis and then hope for an upset loss among at least one of the other remaining teams.
Tulane and North Texas are also 6-1. Two of those three will almost assuredly play in the conference title game.
American Conference Championship Tiebreaker Scenarios
In this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, Tulane was the highest ranked American Conference team. The Green Wave are No. 24 this week and were the only G5 team in the Top 25.
As the highest ranked CFP ranked American team, Tulane would host the American Conference Championship if it wins on Saturday at home against Charlotte (1-10, 0-7).
It would then go to a two-team tiebreaker between North Texas and Navy for the other spot. If both teams win this week, North Texas would win the tiebreaker based on its earlier 31-17 home win over Navy on Nov. 1.
North Texas closes out the conference schedule at home on Friday against Temple (5-6, 3-4).
Navy has to hope for an upset, but the Midshipmen must take care of business first by beating Memphis.
Navy and Memphis were idle this past weekend, so they will be well-rested for this holiday matchup.
How to Watch Navy-Memphis
The Navy-Memphis game will be at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 27, and will be televised by ESPN.
Navy-Memphis Betting Odds
As of this writing Memphis is a 3.5-point college football betting favorite via BetMGM. The Over/Under is 58.5.
Navy-Memphis Records
Navy (8-2, 6-1 American Conference)
Memphis (8-3, 4-3)
Navy-Memphis Coaches
Navy: Brian Newberry (23-12)
Memphis: Ryan Silverfield (50-23)
Navy-Memphis Last Meeting
Sept. 21, 2024, Navy won, 56-44, at home.
Navy-Memphis Preview
For Navy
The Midshipmen are coming off their most impressive game of the season when they defeated South Florida 41-38 at home on Nov. 15. Quarterback Blake Horvath, who missed the previous loss at Notre Dame due to injury, returned to action. Both Horvath and backup Braxton Woodson contributed to the win.
Horvath completed 8 of 15 passes for 147 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. He came out of the game twice but was able to finish the contest. Horvath also rushed for 60 yards on 21 attempts. Newberry and Horvath said after the game that he was suffering from cramping.
Woodson was a spark plug. He completed 2 of 3 passes for 39 yards and really hurt the Bulls with his legs, rushing for 103 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries. Woodson scored on runs of 20 and 64 yards.
Regardless of injury status, don’t be surprised if both quarterbacks see action against Memphis.
Also in that South Florida game, Eli Heidenreich caught five passes for 146 yards and became Navy’s all-time receiving yards leader. He has 1,794 career receiving yards and moved past Rob Taylor who had 1,736 from 1965-67.
Navy leads the nation in rushing, averaging 308.2 yards per game. Horvath has rushed for 986 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Midshipmen average 32.9 points per game and allow 27.9 PPG. Standout defensive lineman Landon Robinson leads Navy in both tackles for loss (7.5) and sacks (5.5).
For Memphis
Memphis and Navy own the distinction as being the two American Conference teams that have defeated South Florida. On Oct. 25, Memphis won 34-31 at home against the Bulls. Now, Memphis is looking to bounce back from its last game, a 31-27 loss at East Carolina on Nov. 15.
Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis has been playing through an ankle injury. Silverfield said the expectation is that Lewis will be the starter for the game.
Lewis, who began his career at Colorado and played the previous two seasons at Nevada, has completed 71.6% of his passes for 2,395 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has rushed for 577 yards and nine touchdowns.
While not as proficient as Navy, Memphis has a strong rushing attack, averaging 192.5 yards per game.
Sutton Smith has rushed for a team-high 644 yards and seven touchdowns. Greg Desrosiers Jr., who missed two earlier games, has rushed for 538 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games.
Cortez Braham Jr. is Memphis’ leading receiver with 59 receptions for 824 yards and seven touchdowns.
Memphis averages 36.2 points per game and allows 22 PPG. Linebacker Sam Brumfield leads the Tigers in tackles (89), tackles for loss (13), and sacks (4.5).
Navy-Memphis Prediction
I predict Navy will cover the 5.5-point spread.
A key statistic is that Memphis has the American’s best rushing defense, allowing 127.4 yards per game. I think the Tigers will be challenged by the nation’s leading rushing team.
In last year’s 56-44 win over Memphis, Navy rushed for 361 yards and five touchdowns. So Memphis must prove it can stop the Navy rushing attack.
On the other side, Navy is 12th in the American in passing defense, allowing 263.9 passing yards per game. I believe Lewis and company will have to enjoy a big game through the air.
Quite simply, Navy has much more to play for. Memphis is out of the conference race, although Silverfield said the team has a goal of winning 10 games for the third straight year. The Tigers would need to beat Navy and win a bowl game to accomplish that feat.
That said, Navy is in a must-win situation, and that urgency that the Midshipmen face could be the difference.
