Arkansas State made a bowl game every season from 2011-19. The Red Wolves won games under several head coaches, including Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin, and Blake Anderson.
There was a hope that the bowl appearances would flood in under Butch Jones, but that hasn’t been the case through a pair of lackluster seasons with the former Tennessee head coach leading the way. Arkansas State went 2-10 in Jones’ first season, and the Red Wolves followed that up with a rocky 3-9 campaign in 2022. They’re just 2-14 in Sun Belt games under Jones.
Jones likely enters 2023 with a warm-ish seat. He won’t need to go 10-2 to keep his job, but if he wins four games or fewer this season, it’s fair to wonder how the Arkansas State fan base and administration will view Jones’ long-term future as the head coach.
With the College Football Playoff soon to expand to 12 teams, the Sun Belt champion will have a chance to break into the event in future seasons. Currently, Arkansas State doesn’t look close to even contending for the Sun Belt West title.
Daunting Schedule Ahead
Unfortunately for Jones, Arkansas State’s 2023 schedule isn’t easy. Non-conference games with Oklahoma and Memphis are tough matchups, and conference road games against Troy, South Alabama, and Marshall are brutal. A home game with Coastal Carolina, which is expected to contend for the Sun Belt East crown, isn’t a cakewalk either.
The Red Wolves’ bowl prospects entering 2023 aren’t overly promising, given the challenging schedule, but ESPN’s Football Power Index does (perhaps surprisingly) give the team a 51% chance of reaching six wins. The program needs to take advantage of non-conference matchups with Stony Brook and UMass, but conference improvement is desperately needed, as the team is 1-7 in league play in each of Jones’ two seasons.
Arkansas State needs to snag 3-5 league wins in 2023 for program supporters to feel confident in the direction Jones is leading the program.
That’s really the key to Jones’ hot-seat status. In 2023, Arkansas State needs to show signs of life. The Red Wolves want to contend for the Sun Belt West title, but nobody expects that to occur in 2023. Making a bowl game – or at least winning five games – would show the program is trending forward.
The Grass Isn’t Always Greener
While Jones hasn’t exactly thrilled Arkansas State fans through a pair of seasons in Jonesboro, his track record of winning is evident. Jones has posted at least one, nine-win season at three different schools, including Tennessee.
Even if Arkansas State stinks in 2023, it might be hard to move on from Jones. Is there a better option out there? Should the program trust Jones’ recent recruiting successes and wait another 1-3 years before judging the head coach?
Arkansas State has loaded up on three-star recruits in recent seasons, consistently competing atop the Sun Belt’s recruiting rankings. Certainly, Jones needs to turn those commitments into on-field wins, but there’s an argument to be made that Arkansas State’s best long-term move is to wait patiently for Jones to build a winner.
It’s hard to win in the Sun Belt, but Jones is at least stockpiling quality talent to help the cause. Maybe a couple of years of adding well-regarded talent leads to a bowl appearance in 2023.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
