A big third quarter propelled Western Kentucky over Delaware last week in a Friday night Conference USA tilt.
The Hilltoppers improved to 5-1 and 3-0 in conference play and covered the spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week. College football betting odds had the Hilltoppers as a 2.5-point underdog.
For this week’s selection, we go to an American Conference matchup.
Rice (Spread +12.5, Moneyline +340) vs. UTSA
The Owls didn’t look all that sharp in last week’s loss to Florida Atlantic. They fell behind early and were never able to recover in the 27-21 defeat.
It also wasn’t a great showing for the Roadrunners, who lost by six to Temple as a 6.5-point favorite. It was the second week in a row UTSA had an underwhelming outing. All in all, I don’t think the Roadrunners have played to expectations this season, and I don’t know if that’ll change this week against a tough in-state conference opponent.
Rice is 3-3 and hasn’t had any impressive wins, but the Owls have hung around in each of their losses. One reason they’re able to keep the game within reach is because they’ve been solid defensively in the red zone, allowing just 12 trips and forcing five field goals on those attempts. Rice is allowing 21.5 points per game.
While only 12 trips to the red zone from its opponents means Rice has given up a handful of long TDs, having UTSA running back Robert Henry Jr. on the other side worries me. He’s arguably the most explosive player in the conference. However, Rice is allowing a modest 4.3 yards per carry and has surrendered eight rushing TDs. They have the potential to at least slow Henry down, and we saw Temple do that last week when he was held to 42 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Rice utilizes an option offense that averages 220 rushing YPG and can maintain long possessions. UTSA ranks fourth in the league in rush defense (118 YPG) but hasn’t faced any premier rushing attacks. Their last three opponents all rank in the bottom third in their respective leagues in rushing.
I also like that Rice has played until the final whistle and has scored late in the fourth quarter in its last two games.
UTSA will be eager to get past last week’s disappointing loss that came to a different Owls squad, but I think Rice can keep this game within two possessions.
The Owls are 3-0 against the spread on the road this season and 2-1 as an underdog. UTSA is 1-3 ATS as a favorite.
Honorable Mentions
Air Force (+6.5, +195) vs. UNLV
The Falcons have now lost four games in a row but have given themselves a chance in each of them, mainly behind their offense.
Air Force is scoring at a high clip and is tied with Utah State for the top scoring offense in the Mountain West at 36.4 PPG. However, the Falcons also haven’t been great on defense and are allowing 37.8 PPG.
Not a good sign against a potent UNLV offense.
I think Air Force finds a way to buckle down defensively this week and bounces back from last week’s close loss to Navy. We’ve also seen UNLV take the foot off the gas late in its wins, which could allow a backdoor cover.
The visiting team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven matchups.
Temple (+10, +270) vs. Navy
As mentioned above, the Owls knocked off UTSA last week for their first conference win of the season. Temple was able to stymie Robert Henry Jr. and picked off Owen McCown twice in the upset.
Now the Owls face quarterback Blake Horvath and Navy’s high-powered offense. Temple’s defense has been steady this season, though, and is surrendering 25 points and 342 yards per game.
The Owls faced Georgia Tech and QB Haynes King two weeks ago, which is another run-heavy offense with a QB who runs often. I think it will have helped prepare Temple for this matchup.
The Owls are 4-1 ATS and Navy is 1-3 ATS as a favorite.
Georgia State (+2.5, +105) vs. App State
Neither of these programs have looked great this year, but I liked the fight from Georgia State against James Madison last week off a bye after giving up 70 points to Vanderbilt three weeks ago. The Panthers lost to JMU 14-7.
I’ll take the Panthers to come out with another strong showing for homecoming.
