It’s going to be disappointing, disheartening, and all-around tragic. It’s overwhelmingly easy to foresee.
Ball State is going to play Sacramento State in a massive MAC matchup, and the teams’ names won’t be abbreviated in the score bug in a way we all know they should be.
As I said, tragic.
But here’s what I don’t think will be as disappointing: Sacramento State moving up to the FBS with a five-year deal with the MAC.
Now, that stance depends on one major condition, so maybe this isn’t that controversial. But it’s one that goes without saying.
Sac State’s move up will only work if the money works.
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Sacramento State will pay the most money a team ever has to move up to the FBS. It will pay more than $23 million to become a member of the MAC and FBS, and it’ll likely be closer to $25-27 million.
The Hornets are reportedly paying the MAC $18 million to join the league, with $6 million due in Year 1. And then there’s the FCS-to-FBS entry fee of $5 million that goes to the NCAA.
Sac State also agreed to cover travel for visiting conference programs for five years, which is estimated to cost $2-4 million.
The program also won’t accept conference distribution during the five-year period that the MAC agreed to let Sac State be a member for.
And a lot of people are wondering where this money will come from. Rightfully so.
Per the university, the athletic economic impact over the next five years is estimated to increase by $975 million, economic revenue from game days goes up $46 million, and money will increase in other ways in the university’s and community’s economy. But CBS Sports recently wrote about how those numbers may be a “mischaracterization” of a study about the overall impact the FBS jump will make.
But there is money at Sac State. Athletic director Mark Orr told CBS Sports that the football team had a $1.7 million revenue share budget last year and that it’s expected to pick up to $3 million the upcoming year. Also, the Hornets’ football budget is expected to go up to $13 million from around $10 million.
That money Sac State is coughing up is a very obvious reason to doubt this will work. But if the university digs in its couch cushions and finds a few million bucks, I think taking up this offer from the MAC might’ve been the right choice in the long run.
For one, Sac State kind of ran out of options. It backed itself into a corner on this in some ways, unfortunately.
The Hornets were overly vocal about their intent to move up. And I appreciate that “speak it into existence” mentality. But by leaving the Big Sky and even speaking ill about the FCS, Sac State president Dr. J Luke Wood and the program also spoke into existence an expedited timeline that may have come with unnecessary risk, both on the field and financially.
Sac State badly wanted an invite from the Pac-12 and was reportedly promised $50 million from outside sources if it happened.
(By the way, Wood told Front Office Sports that if Sac State were to receive an invite to the Pac-12, that he still expects the “Sac-12” $50 million commitment to come in.)
But that invite didn’t arrive. And the Hornets likely would’ve preferred an invite from just about any other conference than the MAC for several reasons.
When the conference invite wasn’t there, Sac State tried to move up to the FBS as an independent program. But the NCAA decision-makers said no – the team could only make the move with a conference home.
The Pac-12 obviously didn’t want Sacramento State. The league preferred to take five teams from the Mountain West and risk the legal battles and potentially millions of dollars in payouts for poaching those teams.
Even the Mountain West, when it was looking to backfill with teams, went with Northern Illinois and UTEP before FCS dynasty North Dakota State.
But that right there is why I think this could prove to be a good move when so many in the college football world are criticizing this. I think this positions Sac State better than before. Being in the MAC could prove to be critical when more conference realignment inevitably unfolds.
It seems obvious that FBS conferences would rather take teams from other FBS conferences before inviting an FCS team, as we saw with the Mountain West. And even if Sac State is remotely competitive, the Hornets could be the preferred option over some of the top-tier FCS teams like South Dakota State or Montana State/Montana.
And don’t forget the market Sac State is in. That is absolutely a huge positive for any conference that would think about adding the Hornets.
Who knows when Boise State will leave the Pac-12 if the Big 12 needs more teams. Who knows if Memphis is the team that goes to the Big 12, the American Conference looks for another member, and that leads to a domino effect that positively impacts Sac State.
And who knows if the Power Four conferences break off to create their own division, and then the Group of Six is left to figure things out. But if that did happen, Sac State is guaranteed a seat at the G6 table.
Not to mention all the benefits the FBS will bring Sac State from a visibility and student recruitment perspective as the university seeks to grow enrollment.
Not every FCS-to-FBS move is going to be easy, smooth, or cheap. There’s inherent risk.
So maybe, right now, Sac State’s decision to pay so much money to play Toledo on a Tuesday doesn’t appear worthwhile. But five-plus years from now, I expect we could end up looking at all of this a bit differently.
