College football has returned, and there’s important games being played between Group of Five teams this week.
There’s a ton of great G5 programs this year, and all will be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s my predictions for G5 games in Week 3.
USF vs. Miami Prediction
I predict Miami will win but USF will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 56.5 total points.
I think USF absolutely has what it takes to win this game, even on the road. Which is why I believe the Bulls will keep this game to within two touchdowns.
But I also don’t know if the Bulls can pull off a third consecutive win over a ranked opponent, especially on the road again (not that USF has had to travel very far this month).
And this Miami team is likely the best one the Bulls have faced so far this year. One could make an argument that Boise State and Florida were ranked like they were because of past seasons and preseason hype. But the Hurricanes have already beaten Notre Dame, so they’re tested and could very well be the best program in the ACC this season.
But I believe this will still be an exciting game. And that’s especially because of what both teams are capable of on defense.
Miami has allowed just 27 points so far this year. Against two ranked teams, USF has given up just 23.
As for USF’s offense, I think quarterback Byrum Brown will make some important plays through the air and on the ground as he has already this year. He’s completed 65% of his throws for 473 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions while leading the team with 109 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. But I also don’t know if USF’s offense will be explosive enough to win again.
The Bulls are a team that deserve to be ranked as highly as they are. But I think Miami, led by experienced quarterback Carson Beck, is going to be better.
Duke vs. Tulane Prediction
I predict Tulane will win and cover the 1.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 52.5 total points.
Both teams are going to be highly motivated for this one. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is going to try and prove he made a good decision to transfer away from Tulane after he threw for 2,723 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions on a 66% completion rate last year.
The Green Wave are going to want to prove they are just fine without him. And so far, they have been. Having beat Northwestern so convincingly in Week 1, and to come back and beat South Alabama on the road in Week 2, I think this Tulane team has as good of a chance as anyone in the American to make it to the College Football Playoff. Maybe that G5 CFP berth will even be decided in the American Conference Championship.
But until then, I think Tulane has the defense to keep on winning. I expect the Green Wave will frustrate Mensah, and that Tulane’s offense will control the game on the ground and will make just enough plays to win by a touchdown.
Texas State vs. Arizona State Prediction
I predict Arizona State will win but Texas State will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 60.5 total points.
Arizona State is coming off a 24-20 loss at Mississippi State, so I could see why some people might even think the Sun Devils will also lose this game this week. But I think they will be desperate to win their matchup with a Group of Five team with the hopes of eventually getting back into the College Football Playoff discussion.
That said, I think Texas State has what it takes to keep this one close. The Bobcats should especially have fans optimistic after they won at UTSA a week ago.
With quarterback Brad Jackson, running back Lincoln Pare, and wide receiver Beau Sparks, the Bobcats have plenty of offensive firepower. They’re capable, in my opinion, of putting up more than 30 points in this clash.
I expect this to be an exciting game with plenty of points scored on both sides, but I think Arizona State ultimately will win at home.
Utah vs. Wyoming Prediction
I predict Utah will win and cover the 23.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 46.5 total points.
Wyoming is 2-0, which is exactly what the Cowboys were hoping for at this point. But that was against Akron, expected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC, and an FCS team. This Utah squad that Wyoming is going to play is much different.
Devon Dampier, who played for New Mexico last season, is now leading Utah. And the dual-threat quarterback ran for 207 yards and three touchdowns while passing for 164 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against Wyoming last year. Through two games this year, he’s thrown for 398 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions while rushing for 112 yards and one score.
I don’t know if Wyoming’s offense is going to be capable of keeping up with Utah’s. Ultimately, I expect the Utes will score early and often and will win by four touchdowns.
Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky Prediction
I predict Kentucky will win and cover the 25.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 48.5 total points.
Yes, Toledo was competitive with this Kentucky squad just a few weeks ago. The Rockets lost by just one possession.
So could another MAC squad keep it close against the Wildcats? I don’t think so.
Eastern Michigan isn’t the same team that Toledo is. The Eagles just lost to an FCS team at home.
And now they have to compete with an SEC program that just lost to Ole Miss by a single touchdown.
I think Kentucky is going to be motivated to respond after a loss like that and that the Wildcats will be aggressive on offense early. If they do put up a good number of points before intermission, I don’t think EMU will be able to keep up.
UMass vs. Iowa Prediction
I predict Iowa will win and cover the 35.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 43.5 total points.
UMass may end up being a solid squad in the MAC. But considering it’s Joe Harasymiak’s first year, and the Minutemen haven’t been competitive in a while, I don’t know if they’ll keep this contest close.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 16-13 loss at Iowa State, and I anticipate they’ll be eager to rebound and get a win against a team like UMass at home. Iowa isn’t known for having an explosive offense, but I think the Hawkeyes will be better than UMass in almost every facet of the game and will win by 40 points or more.
Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech Prediction
I predict Old Dominion will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 51.5 total points.
The Monarchs will be without former All-American linebacker Jason Henderson on the field, but this ODU defense is still one to be taken seriously. The Monarchs limited Indiana to 27 points and then held North Carolina Central to just six points.
And now they take on a Virginia Tech offense that’s scored 31 points over its last two games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, both losses for the Hokies.
I’m not saying ODU is going to shut out Virginia Tech. But I do think the Monarchs have the talent on that side of the ball to give the Hokies some issues.
And I’m picking the Over because I think ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is going to be fantastic. He’s thrown for 353 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 65% completion rate while leading the team with 228 yards and three touchdowns rushing.
I believe both offenses will have slow starts in this matchup. But as the game gets into the second half, I expect the score to be close and for both offenses to become a little more urgent.
And in the end, I believe Joseph and the Monarchs will find a way to win.
Western Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction
I predict Illinois will win and cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 50.5 total points.
Illinois entered the 2025 season with some preseason hype, and the Fighting Illini haven’t done much on the field to disappoint their fans so far. They’ve beaten Western Illinois 52-3 and Duke 45-19.
I don’t know if Western Michigan has enough to slow down Illinois’ momentum at this point. The Broncos scored six points on the road at Michigan State to begin the year in a 23-6 loss, and then lost to North Texas 33-30 at home last week.
Now, I do believe in WMU’s defense, which is why I anticipate this will be a low-scoring contest early on. But I think Illinois will pull away in the second half to win in convincing fashion.
Ohio vs. Ohio State Prediction
I predict Ohio State will win but Ohio will cover the 28.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 50.5 total points.
I expect this contest between in-state opponents will be a lot more interesting than some people are anticipating. It’s a matchup between a program in the MAC with a first-year head coach and the No. 1-ranked team in the country.
But I think the Bobcats have the makings of a squad that’s going to give Ohio State fans some worries.
First, they’ve already been competitive against two Power Four opponents. They lost to Rutgers by three points, 34-31, and then defeated West Virginia 17-10 at home.
Ohio’s defense has looked pretty solid, particularly last week. Ohio gave up just 10 points against WVU.
But I also think Ohio has the offense to keep up with the Buckeyes, at least in the first half. Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro is a star in the Group of Five. He’s thrown for 486 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 69% completion rate while leading the team with 180 yards and one touchdown rushing. Ohio’s rushing attack, which can also lean on Sieh Bangura who has 152 yards and one score through two games, could affect time of possession and keep Ohio State’s offense off the field more than expected.
I believe Ohio State will win this game, but I don’t think it’ll be by more than four touchdowns.
UTEP vs. Texas Prediction
I predict Texas will win but UTEP will cover the 40.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 51.5 total points.
Look, I think Texas is clearly the better team. The Longhorns nearly beat Ohio State to start the year and then defeated San Jose State, which is one of the better squads in the Mountain West, 38-7.
But I also don’t believe Texas will need to win by 41 points, similar to the SJSU game, before backups and third-stringers start entering the game. I also think UTEP is capable of putting up some points.
Miners quarterback Malachi Nelson threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns on 14-of-26 passing last week in a win over UT Martin, and Hahsaun Wilson ran for 117 yards and a TD. Wide receivers Kenny Odom (five catches, 124 yards, and a touchdown) and Toric Goins Jr. (three receptions, 105 yards, and a TD) could also make an impact after they each went over the 100-yard mark a week ago.
I expect Texas will win by about four touchdowns, but I don’t anticipate the final margin to be much more than that.
Iowa State vs. Arkansas State Prediction
I predict Iowa State will win but Arkansas State will cover the 21-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 55.5 total points.
On paper, Iowa State is the better team with the better roster. And the Cyclones are 3-0 for a reason. But their two games against FBS opponents haven’t been smooth. They beat Kansas State and Iowa each by just three points.
And now they go on the road to take on Arkansas State, which should have a pretty solid offense this year. Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor is an experienced signal caller at this point, and I think he may prove to be tough to stop for Iowa State defensively. He’s completed 72% of his passes for 470 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions with 55 rushing yards.
Iowa State may end up winning, but considering this game is at home for Arkansas State, I think this matchup could also be decided by two touchdowns or less.
SMU vs. Missouri State Prediction
I predict SMU will win and cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project this game will go Under 60.5 total points.
Missouri State just had a gutsy performance in its win over Marshall. To win like that over a storied program in their first season in the FBS, I think the Bears will cause some problems for CUSA teams.
But I don’t expect this will be a problem for SMU. The Mustangs just barely lost to Baylor last week, and they should be motivated to bounce back if they want any chance of getting back to the College Football Playoff this season.
I’m expecting SMU’s offense will score early and often on the road. I’m also anticipating SMU’s defense will rebound after giving up 48 points to Baylor a week ago.
And ultimately I believe SMU will have an insurmountable lead by intermission.
Washington State vs. North Texas Prediction
I predict Washington State will win and cover the 5.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 56.5 total points.
North Texas may be playing at home. And the Mean Green may even have one of the best offenses in the American. But I also think Washington State has a solid squad as well.
It’s easy to look at Wazzu’s 13-10 win over FCS Idaho and think this team will struggle against better competition. But after the Cougars won like they did against San Diego State last week, I expect this squad will only continue to improve.
Washington State quarterback Jaxon Potter has thrown for 465 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions and a 71% completion percentage. If he can play at a high level and keep up with UNT’s offensive production, this game should be close.
And I think I like WSU’s defense just a little bit more than the Mean Green’s. This should be a fun one to watch, and I think the Cougars end up staying undefeated this season after this one.
Oregon State vs. Texas Tech Prediction
I predict Texas Tech will win and cover the 23.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 62.5 total points.
Based on their last two games, I don’t think Oregon State is going to slow down this Texas Tech offense. The Red Raiders have put up 129 points in their last two outings. And while I don’t think they’ll be scoring in the 60s in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re not far off from that.
They’ve also given up just 21 points in those previous two contests. Granted, it was against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State. But I think Texas Tech’s defense has some talent as well.
The Beavers may have some highlights in this game, especially on offense which is why I think this game will hit the Over. But ultimately I think Texas Tech will win in a blowout.
South Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction
I predict Auburn wins and covers the 24.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
I simply think the Tigers are going to be too difficult to beat for South Alabama. The Jaguars do have talent, and they could very well end up being in the mix for a Sun Belt title in a couple months.
But based on what we’ve seen from both teams, I think Auburn is going to thrive. Former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold has thrown for 359 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions while completing 79% of his passes and rushing for 142 yards and two TDs. I think he continues to excel for Auburn – both through the air and on the ground – in this matchup.
Buffalo vs. Kent State Prediction
I predict Buffalo wins and covers the 22.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 48.5 total points.
It was huge for Kent State to break its 21-game losing streak over Merrimack to start the season. But after what I saw in the Golden Flashes’ 62-14 loss at Texas Tech last week, I don’t know how many more times they’re going to be competitive this season.
I certainly anticipate Buffalo will win by four touchdowns. Led by running back Al-Jay Henderson and quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, the Bulls have a potent rushing attack. And Buffalo’s defense, led by linebackers Red Murdock and Dion Crawford, is stout.
I think Buffalo ends up winning decisively here.
Memphis vs. Troy Prediction
I predict Memphis will win and cover the four-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 51.5 total points.
Memphis was my preseason pick to win the American this year, and I’m not backing off of that pick yet. The Tigers have given up just 26 points in their first two games, even if it was against Chattanooga and Georgia State.
And offensively, I think Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis will have a great performance in this one. He’s thrown for 395 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while completing 79% of his throws. He’s also rushed for a team-best 149 yards and two touchdowns.
But I don’t think we’ve seen the best from him yet. And this would be a good time for him to step up.
Troy is a solid program and in that close loss to Clemson showed it has the talent to win this game. But I think Memphis plays well enough on both sides of the ball to win by a touchdown.
Central Michigan vs. Michigan Prediction
I predict Michigan will win but Central Michigan will cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 42.5 total points.
I like what I’ve seen from the Chippewas so far, even if Pitt ended up winning in a lopsided fashion last week. CMU is a tough team, and I think that is going to be especially evident in this matchup against an in-state Power Four program like Michigan.
Also, Michigan is going to be without head coach Sherrone Moore in this game. Biff Poggi, current Wolverines assistant and former Charlotte coach, will be in charge for this CMU game.
And I think that ends up impacting Michigan a little bit. The Wolverines are at home, and I expect they will ultimately prevail with that home-field advantage.
But I also could see Michigan’s offense struggling at times against CMU’s defense. I expect this will be a low-scoring contest – and it may even be ugly at times – but I think Michigan will win by less than three touchdowns.
Oklahoma vs. Temple Prediction
I predict Oklahoma will win but Temple will cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 51.5 total points.
I really like what Temple has done so far. This is already a step forward for a program that hasn’t seen a lot of winning the past couple of years. I think there’s even a chance the Owls make it to a bowl game in 2025.
But I don’t think Temple will win this matchup with Oklahoma. With John Mateer at quarterback, the Sooners’ offense is going to be dynamic. I think they ultimately get a road win here.
However, I also think Temple will play well enough defensively to keep this close in the first half. The Owls’ defense has only allowed 17 points over the past two weeks. And while I think Oklahoma is better, I expect the Owls will make enough plays on defense to make this interesting until the Sooners eventually win by two touchdowns.
