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Fresno State vs. Boise State Prediction, Betting Odds & How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
October 31, 2025
Boise State running back Dylan Riley and quarterback Maddux Madsen

AP Photo/Steve Conner

Fresno State head coach Matt Entz played a change at quarterback close to the vest heading into last week’s rivalry game. San Diego State was not fooled.

Sacramento State transfer Carson Conklin made his first career FBS start last week against one of the best defenses in the country. The results were as expected. The Aztecs intercepted two of Conklin’s 42 pass attempts, pressured him out of the pocket, and negated his ability to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball six times for minus-14 yards, and Fresno State was shut out 23-0.

Former Fresno State starter EJ Warner has been turnover prone his whole career, and this season is no different. The senior has thrown at least 12 interceptions in each of his past three seasons, which included stops at Temple and Rice. He has thrown nine interceptions and lost three fumbles this season.

Entz said Monday that Conklin will once again be the starter when Fresno State (5-3, 2-2 Mountain West) hits the road to face Boise State on Saturday. The Bulldogs are one win shy of earning bowl-eligibility for a fifth-straight season.


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Entz said the decision to start Conklin instead of Warner was based on evaluations that began during the bye week and continued during the week leading up to the San Diego State game. He said both quarterbacks got equal reps in practice, and he felt like Conklin better embodied the qualities he values in a quarterback on and off the field. 

“You see the way he handles himself and the way he pours himself into his teammates,” Entz told reporters during his weekly press conference. “I’ve been fortunate to be around some very talented quarterbacks in my coaching career, four of whom are in the NFL right now. All of them were servant leaders. All of them were professionals about how they approached the game and the mental side of it. … Not that EJ didn’t do those things, but you see it’s on a different level (with Conklin), especially the interactions with his teammates.”

Boise State (6-2, 4-0) is coming off a game at Nevada in which the Broncos underperformed but still beat the Wolf Pack by three touchdowns. 

Boise State Will Be Without Its Top Receiver

The Broncos’ passing game took a hit this week when head coach Spencer Danielson announced Monday that wide receiver Chris Marshall is suspended for a week and will not play on Saturday. The former five-star recruit leads Boise State with 467 receiving yards and is No. 2 on the team with 24 catches. 

Danielson didn’t go into specifics about Marshall’s suspension, but he said it stemmed from something that happened either late in the first half or at halftime of the Nevada game.

“The standards that we have here about how you act and how you interact with coaches and players matters,” Danielson said on Monday. “I hope he uses this time to learn and grow.”

Marshall transferred to Boise State with a history of disciplinary issues. He was suspended at Texas A&M as a freshman and was dismissed from Ole Miss after he only spent spring ball with the Rebels.

Boise State also lost wide receiver Ben Ford to a season-ending injury last week. The fifth-year senior set career highs this season with 21 catches, 325 yards, and a team-high five touchdowns.  

Fresno State vs. Boise State Betting Odds

Boise State is a 17.5-point college football betting odds favorite at BetMGM as of the time of this writing, and the Over/Under is 50.5 points. The moneyline is at -1000 for Boise State and +650 for Fresno State.

Boise State leads the all-time series 17-9, but Fresno State has won their past two meetings, including a 28-16 win in the 2022 Mountain West Championship. The Broncos and Bulldogs have played in the conference title game four times since 2014 with each program going 2-2.

Fresno State vs. Boise State On TV

The Mountain West football game between Boise State and Fresno State at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, will be televised on FS1. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.

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Fresno State at Boise State Prediction

I predict Boise State wins 33-17.

Fresno State has some playmakers on defense who may be able to pressure Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen into some mistakes, especially since he’ll be without two of his top receivers. But I expect Conklin is going to make mistakes of his own, and the Bulldogs’ defensive front isn’t going to be able to handle the Broncos’ rushing attack. 

I anticipate Boise State will have a big day on the ground. Former Fresno State running back Malik Sherrod might even get a few extra touches against his old squad. 

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