Which G5 Team Is Most Likely To Make The College Football Playoff?

The newest changes to the College Football Playoff mean a Group of Five team will automatically qualify for a chance to become the national champion. 

It’s certain a conference champion will be the G5 team selected to the CFP. So, which conference is most likely to produce the first G5 team to play in this new format? 

It’ll also only be the second G5 team to ever make the CFP in its 10-year history, with the first being Cincinnati in 2022. Historically, the AAC has been the league with the highest-ranked G5 program at the end of the season.

ESPN’s latest CFB Power Index predicts that to change this year, though. Out of the Mountain West, Boise State has the highest chance to make the CFP at 16.4%. UTSA is second at 15.6%, followed by Liberty and Memphis.

The top 10 teams in this list consist of four programs from the AAC, three from the Sun Belt, two from the MW, and one from Conference USA. 

Boise State In The College Football Playoff

If Boise State were to be the team to represent the G5 in the CFP, it’s likely the Broncos will need to not only win the league, but win two of the three games against Washington State, Oregon State, and Oregon. As of right now, their conference slate doesn’t seem too difficult.

With what the Broncos are bringing back from last year — especially in running back Ashton Jeanty, who is one of the most dynamic players in all of college football — it’s not surprising they’re considered the most likely G5 team to make the CFP.

Liberty In The College Football Playoff

The Flames should be riding high coming off a historic season under first-year head coach Jamey Chadwell and CUSA Player of the Year Kaidon Salter returning, along with plenty of firepower.

But can Liberty prove itself as the top G5 team for the second consecutive season? Some argued the Flames didn’t even deserve that New Year’s Six spot in last year’s Fiesta Bowl. The 45-6 defeat may have added some assurance to those claims.

The only knock on Liberty will be its schedule. It will surely need to win out, and that includes winning at App State in Week 5 in what should be the Flames’ toughest game of the season.

UTSA, Memphis, Or Tulane In The College Football Playoff

What might be a little surprising is where UTSA lands on this list. The Roadrunners lost longtime quarterback Frank Harris but are still predicted to be the best team in the AAC, according to the FPI. Their schedule is also relatively light.

Memphis has the fourth-highest percentage at 7.9%, but I think they should be higher than UTSA. The Tigers’ offense should guide them to double-digit wins, and I expect them to make it to the AAC title game. If they win, and they handle their non-conference slate, we could see them playing in the CFP.

At 6.2%, Tulane is also a contender. The Green Wave bring in head coach Jon Sumrall and should remain as the top defense in the league. They also face Kansas State and Oklahoma, and a win over either will obviously strengthen their odds. Unlike Liberty last year, it might prove beneficial to play tough competition and lose rather than going undefeated against mid-level competition.

App State, Troy, Or Texas State In The College Football Playoff

Ah, yes. In what I believe is the toughest G5 conference, App State has the highest percentage among Sun Belt programs but has just the fifth-highest percentage on the list. I think this might have to do with how difficult it is to win in this league, and App State may finish with two or three losses.

Still, I don’t think that should diminish the Mountaineers’ chances, or the chances of whoever wins the conference. Troy is very much in the mix, and don’t count out Texas State and reigning league POY Jordan McCloud. 

Consensus

Just like the NCAA Tournament, there’s going to be a lot of groaning about which team was chosen and why. Sometimes these selection committees contradict themselves. 

This year’s selection will be interesting as it sets the premise for future years, and I think the biggest factor will be how the contenders fare in the non-conference slate — and more specifically, how well they fare against Power Four programs.