For the second season in a row, Miami (Ohio) is 1-3 entering MAC play. After losses to Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UNLV, the RedHawks defeated FCS Lindenwood on Saturday for their first win of 2025.
In the loss to UNLV, Miami surrendered two 14-point leads in the second half and turned the ball over late in the fourth quarter when it looked like they might take the lead. It also put the RedHawks in the same 0-3 hole they were in last season where they lost to Notre Dame in Week 4 to fall to 0-3.
During the postgame press conferences for head coach Chuck Martin following both the loss to Notre Dame and to UNLV, there was a certain theme that emerged — mental mistakes.
Between turnovers and missed assignments, mental miscues killed Miami in its loss to UNLV. Penalties have also hampered the RedHawks this year as they’ve committed 28 through four games and are giving up 70.8 penalty yards per game, which is the second-worst mark in the MAC.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
We saw Miami bounce back from last year’s 0-3 start, though, winning eight of its next nine games and going 7-1 in league play to earn a spot in the conference title game. Can the RedHawks fix the mental miscues and have that same type of turnaround this year?
I don’t think there’s much of a debate that playing three Power Four opponents in the first three weeks of last season helped prepare the RedHawks for the conference slate. I think this year’s non-conference schedule will do the same.
We’ll certainly know more when they visit Northern Illinois to open league play Saturday in a tough matchup. Things might get a little easier the next two weeks against Akron and Eastern Michigan, but the RedHawks have back-to-back games against Toledo and Ohio in early November, which are likely must-win contests if they want to make it to a third-straight MAC Championship.
Having star quarterback Dequan Finn available will also be vital if Miami wants to turn things around. Finn missed last week’s win over Lindenwood after exiting during the first half against UNLV, which also almost certainly played a role in that loss. However, per Martin’s weekly presser, there’s optimism Finn could suit up this week.
Taking snaps in Finn’s absence has been redshirt senior Henry Hesson, who is 21-for-38 passing for 342 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Two of Hesson’s three TD passes have come on third down, which is an area the RedHawks have struggled in this year. They’re a mere 8 for 38 on third-down conversions.
Miami has had problems sustaining drives at times in its young season, and not having Finn and his ability to use his legs limits the RedHawks’ offense, especially on third downs. It’s another dimension the defense is forced to worry about.
At just over 25 minutes per game, they rank last in the league and 131st in the FBS in time of possession. They’ve had a few long touchdown plays, which have played a part in the short drives, but the missed opportunities on third downs have been impactful, especially against UNLV.
With or without Finn, I think Miami quickly improves in that area and quickly improves as a whole. I expect the RedHawks to flip the script, get back on the winning path, and remain as one of the top teams in the MAC this year. Their coaching staff is a big reason why.
Based on its schedules, it wasn’t out of the question that Miami would start 0-3 last year or this year. And it’s definitely not out of the question that the RedHawks make another run at a conference title.
Miami (Ohio)-Northern Illinois Prediction
I predict Miami wins in a low-scoring game but NIU covers the spread. As of this writing, the RedHawks are a 4.5-point college football betting favorite.
Even if Finn doesn’t play and Miami’s offense sputters against a good NIU defense, I think the RedHawks’ defense and special teams will make big plays to keep Miami afloat, much like they did against UNLV with a pick-six and kickoff return for a score.
Miami has one of the top defenses and special teams units in the league, and the RedHawks may have to lean on those groups in this matchup.
