The first three weeks of the season won’t be doing Miami much favors.
Sure, the Redhawks face Massachusetts in Week 2, but that game is on the road and in between two more road trips. In Week 1, they will face Miami of the Sunshine State, and in Week 3 face another Power 5 opponent on the road at Cincinnati.
Not an ideal start for a team when you’re hoping to bet the over on their win total. College football betting odds via BetMGM currently list that number at 6.5.
It’s a good thing the Redhawks play the two worst teams in the MAC West, however, as it helps make up for their seven road contests and tough start to the season, giving them a chance to go over on the win total.
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Games to like
As it was mentioned above, Miami will visit UMass on Sept. 9, which will probably be its first victory of 2023. The Redhawks’ first home contest isn’t until Week 4 against MEAC member Delaware State. This should spark a quick four-game winning streak and get Miami back on the trajectory that their season should go.
Next up is a visit to Kent State, followed by hosting Bowling Green and then another trip to Western Michigan. Miami will be 3-0 in conference play after these three matchups entering an Oct. 21 meeting hosting Toledo. This will be the third game in a three-game road trip for Toledo.
Given Miami’s weak strength of schedule prior to playing Toledo and that the visitor is 1-6 in these teams’ last seven meetings, I’m going to ride with the Redhawks here to hand the Rockets what could be their only conference loss.
The only back-to-back home games Miami has are Nov. 8 against Akron and Nov. 15 against Buffalo. It should have no problem against the Zips, but the Buffalo game is a toss up, even though the home team has won the previous six meetings.
The Redhawks should also end the regular season with a win at Ball State.
Games not to like
Right now, Miami (OH) is a 17.5-point underdog ahead of its Week 1 matchup with Miami (FL). It’s unlikely the Redhawks open the season with a win, but it’ll be a nice early test. Two weeks later, they will again be dogs against Cincinnati in a game they’re likely to lose.
Another contest that doesn’t look intriguing is an Oct. 28 trip to Athens to face their rival. The Redhawks will be coming off a big win against Toledo here and the Bobcats will be comfortable at home after an easier matchup with Western Michigan the week prior.
Best bet
There are only three games that look unfavorable to the Redhawks looking at this schedule. If they lose those three, and then drop another contest in a close conference duel such as that Buffalo game, that still puts them at 8 wins on the year.
Miami returns seven starters on offense and nine on a defense that allowed 22.6 PPG, and should look more like the 2019 squad that won the league title. That’s if injuries aren’t in the picture like they were in 2022.
Because of the trip to battle Ohio, I don’t know if the Redhawks will reach the MAC championship game, but I do see them getting at least seven wins and hitting the over 6.5.
With the odds juiced to -175, it could be best to wait for the line to move to 7, and be forced to potentially deal with a push instead of paying such a steep price for this bet.
