The FCS championship will have a new look this year.
After 15 years in Frisco, Texas, the title game is heading to Nashville. And a new-look champion will be crowned. No. 2 seed Montana State hasn’t won an FCS title since 1984. Unseeded Illinois State has never won an FCS championship.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 138-51
2024 Record: 126-40
Montana State vs. Illinois State On TV
The matchup between Montana State and Illinois State airs nationally on ESPN.
Kickoff is 6:30 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 5. It takes place at Vanderbilt’s FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, TN.
Montana State vs. Illinois State Preview
When Montana State Has The Ball
Montana State fields a more balanced offense this season under first-year offensive coordinator Pete Sterbick and junior quarterback Justin Lamson, a 2025 transfer from Stanford. The Bobcats can spread the ball out more through the air, utilizing a quick-hitting, high-efficiency passing attack to complement their powerful running game.
MSU is averaging 38.1 points per game (8th in the FCS), 234.5 rushing YPG (4th), and 202.6 passing YPG (70th).
Lamson has been terrific in his debut season, completing 72% of his passes for 2,892 yards, 24 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Lamson’s legs are just as dangerous, rushing for 704 yards and 14 TDs.
The rushing attack still sets the tone behind the duo of senior Julius Davis (1,100 yards, 8 TDs) and sophomore Adam Jones (1,047 yards, 15 TDs). They run behind a younger, but strong offensive line that owns the No. 4 FCS run-blocking grade on PFF, along with the No. 7 pass-blocking grade. MSU’s starting offensive line goes redshirt freshman Braden Zimmer (6’6” 285 lbs), sophomore Burke Mastel (6’4” 315 lbs), senior JT Reed (6’3” 290 lbs), junior Titan Fleischmann (6’4” 300 lbs), and sophomore Cedric Jefferson (6’5” 300 lbs).
Junior wide receiver Taco Dowler leads the pass-catchers with 69 catches for 914 yards and 6 touchdowns. Redshirt freshman WR Dane Steel is No. 2 with 37 receptions for 460 yards and two scores. Redshirt freshman tight end Rocky Lencioni has become a key red-zone target, tallying 18 catches for 190 yards and six touchdowns.
Illinois State’s defense was up-and-down during the regular season, but it has elevated its play in the playoffs. The Redbirds allow 25.1 points per game (48th in the FCS), 132.5 rushing YPG (28th), and 243.3 passing YPG (99th). They own the No. 10 FCS rush defense grade on PFF, which will be key in slowing down MSU.
Junior linebacker Tye Niekamp is among the best defensive players in the FCS, racking up 155 tackles this season, including 14.5 TFLs, two sacks, one interception, eight pass breakups, and four quarterback hurries. He is the son of Illinois State defensive coordinator Travis Niekamp. Younger brother Dexter Niekamp, a redshirt freshman linebacker, has 48 tackles, six TFLs, and four sacks this season.
Junior defensive back La’Shavion Brown adds 91 tackles, senior DB Shadwel Nkuba II totals 76 stops, five interceptions, and six pass breakups, and senior LB Mason Kaplan has 76 tackles. Sophomore LB Patrick Bauer has notched 8.5 TFLs.
A disruptive defensive line sets the tone. Senior Garret Steffen (6’4″ 275 lbs) has tallied 10.5 TFLs and seven sacks. Senior Jake Anderson (6’5″ 295 lbs) adds 7.5 TFLs and three sacks.
Illinois State has forced 26 turnovers, ranking No. 6 in the FCS.
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When Illinois State Has The Ball
Illinois State owns a veteran and balanced offense that is averaging 30.6 points per game (34th in the FCS), 170.4 rushing YPG (40th), and 214.8 passing YPG (57th).
Senior quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse started five combined games in 2022 and 2023 before taking over as the full-time starter last year. He’s a back-to-back All-MVFC selection. This season, Rittenhouse is completing 64% of his passes for 3,257 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
His go-to target is 6-foot-3 senior wide receiver and NFL Draft prospect Daniel Sobkowicz. The four-year starter and three-time All-Conference performer has 78 catches this year for 1,089 yards and an FCS-leading 18 touchdowns. Sobkowicz has dominated in the playoffs. He had eight catches for 89 yards at Southeastern, eight catches for 67 yards and three TDs at NDSU, six receptions for 150 yards and two scores at UC Davis, and seven catches for 97 yards and two TDs at Villanova.
Redshirt freshman WR Luke Mailander adds 43 receptions for 659 yards and four TDs. Dylan Lord, another redshirt freshman receiver, has 61 catches for 573 yards and three touchdowns.
Wenkers Wright, a 1,000-yard running back last year, hasn’t played since the first round due to injury. The senior has 591 rushing yards and five TDs this season, and is questionable for Monday’s game. Senior Victor Dawson has emerged as the top rusher, toting the rock 249 times for 1,251 yards and five touchdowns. Dawson transferred to Illinois State this year from FBS Cincinnati, but he started his career in the FCS and was a freshman All-American at Merrimack. Rittenhouse is a capable runner as well, rushing for 402 yards and a team-high seven TDs.
Illinois State’s offensive line owns PFF’s No. 38 FCS run-blocking grade. It has been great in pass protection with the No. 2 pass-blocking grade, allowing just 1.25 sacks per game (18th in the FCS). The starting o-line goes senior Jake Pope (6’7″ 300 lbs), senior Landon Woodard (6’5″ 330 lbs), junior Brayden Jellison (6’4″ 310 lbs), senior Micah Barnhart (6’4″ 310 lbs), and sophomore Logan Brasfield (6’3″ 315 lbs).
Montana State’s defense has been among the best in the subdivision this year, led by a stout front six and a young but athletic secondary.
The Bobcats allow 18.0 points per game (8th in the FCS), 116.0 rushing YPG (14th), and 203.3 passing YPG (42nd).
Sophomore LB Cole Taylor leads the unit with 91 tackles, including seven TFLs and two interceptions. Junior safety and Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Caden Dowler is right behind him with 90 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, six interceptions, and four pass breakups. Dowler suffered a hand or wrist injury early in the semifinals, which sidelined him. His status is questionable, but hopeful for the championship game. Sophomore Tayden Gray is another key player in the secondary, recording 49 tackles, three TFLs, two interceptions, and three pass breakups.
Senior defensive end Kenneth Eiden IV (6’1” 250 lbs) has had a strong season, racking up 50 tackles, 16 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, and eight QB hurries. Paired with junior DE Zac Crews (6’4” 240 lbs), who has 8.5 TFLs and six sacks, and senior DE Hunter Parsons (6’4” 245 lbs), tallying 9.5 TFLs, four sacks, and seven QB hurries, the Cats have a dangerous trio of edge defenders.
Two interior defenders have had standout years. Senior Paul Brott (6’3” 300 lbs) totals 21 tackles and three TFLs. Senior Alec Eckert (6’2” 285 lbs) has 26 stops, 5.5 TFLs, and three sacks.
MSU has forced 27 turnovers, ranking No. 3 in the FCS.
Special Teams
Montana State freshman punter Colby Frokjer is averaging 42.0 yards per punt. Sophomore kicker Myles Sansted has hit 70/74 PATs and 17/21 field goals with a long of 48 yards. He is 7/10 on field goals between 40-49 yards.
MSU junior Taco Dowler has returned 24 punts for 323 yards (13.5 average) and a touchdown. Redshirt freshman Jabez Woods has returned 15 kicks for 440 yards (29.3 average).
Illinois State sophomore punter Hayden Futch is averaging 43.6 yards per punt. Senior Matt Maldonado has made 57/58 PATs and 10/17 field goals with a long of 51 yards. He’s 3/4 on field goals between 40-49 yards. The Redbirds inserted junior Michael Cosentino in the semifinals, and he went 3/3 at Villanova with a long of 35 yards.
ISU junior Eddie Kasper has returned 19 punts for 108 yards (5.7 average). Sophomore Chris Taylor has returned five kicks for 165 yards, including a 91-yard touchdown in the quarterfinals at UC Davis.
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Montana State vs. Illinois State Prediction
Illinois State has had a historic playoff run. The Redbirds are the first team to win four road games in the playoffs. They came into this season with high expectations as a veteran team that made the 2024 playoffs. After a slow start, Illinois State has been on a heater. The Redbirds have the talent and physicality to be on this stage and compete.
They have 26 seniors leading the charge.
Many of us thought last year was Montana State’s best window to win an FCS title with a well-built team and a loaded senior class. The Bobcats were arguably the best team in the FCS, but they weren’t the best team on championship day. A disastrous start was costly in a gut-wrenching 35-32 loss to NDSU.
The Bobcats have just nine seniors on this year’s team. But they are a more complete team than the 2024 squad. And this year looks like an even better window to win its first FCS championship in 41 years.
I expect a fast start for MSU. The Cats are familiar with this stage, which has been key in past title bouts. But I do think Illinois State will stay within striking distance. The Redbirds have the d-line and linebackers to offer resistance to MSU’s rushing attack. Illinois State is also methodical in how it drives the field offensively. MSU isn’t a pressure-heavy defense, often rushing four and sticking to its base defense. If the Redbirds can take what the defense gives them and slowly move the ball down the field, similar to their game plan against NDSU, they can make this an interesting game as a two-score underdog.
The Cats have been climbing near the FCS mountaintop since 2019. Yet, they have come up short, not able to clear the final hurdle. They are the best team in the FCS this year. They were probably the best team in the FCS last season. This time around, Montana State plays like it on the championship stage. If the Cats do, they’ll be a legendary team in the state’s history. And Brent Vigen could already cement his legacy as an all-time MSU coach.
Last year during the season, MSU senior LB McCade O’Reilly said the Cats have already learned all the lessons they needed to learn. Now it was time to finish the job. They did not do so in Frisco as favorites against NDSU.
After the championship loss, Vigen said, “We needed to learn another lesson, I guess. I don’t know why, but we did. So here we go, on to next year.”
Can MSU finish the job this year? I think the Cats will.
Prediction: Montana State 34-21
