The Realignment Fever Out West

KC Smurthwaite is a consultant for Athletics Admin, specializing in revenue generation, licensing, marketing, and higher education. He has almost two decades of experience in collegiate athletics and the sports and entertainment industry. Smurthwaite is a fractional employee of several athletic departments across the country. He also teaches sport management and journalism as an adjunct professor. Follow him on Twitter or connect on LinkedIn. Smurthwaite can also be reached at [email protected].

I’ve got a fever, and the only prescription is more realignment.

It seems all we talk about around the social media watercooler is name, image & likeness, and realignment. But that’s not a bad thing, right? That’s the beauty of collegiate athletics — there’s a passion that goes beyond just being an alum or season ticket holder.

The dopamine hit of realignment came again early Wednesday morning, with a report from Extra Points mentioning Utah Valley University as a potential expansion candidate, along with some great insight on Sacramento State.

Adding more fuel to the fire, the Mountain West has quietly been shopping around for two additional non-football-playing schools over the last few weeks. That statement is true. But how hard are they really looking? From what I gather, they’re comfortable — just casually shopping.

But remember, Gloria Nevarez, the Mountain West commissioner, said in February that membership was “on pause.” And yet, just like the great Christopher Walken wanted more cowbell — and put it on repeat — the Mountain West is at it again.

So soon, you ask? What changed?

Well, the pulse, I believe, is that somebody caught a fever, and it wasn’t Gloria.

It’s likely coming from a network — because they’re still the ones who tell us when to play, sometimes who to play, and even where to play.

If you look at the grant of rights signed by the remaining Mountain West schools, it states the conference will use “best efforts” to maintain the annual per-school media-rights distribution of $3.5 million and can use a combination of revenue sources to hit that mark. The average annual value (AAV), all things considered, has hovered around $5 million per school. I believe that is expected to be the goal and/or floor for their next deal.

So, let’s say the goal of AAV increases slightly to $5 million. For those of you at home wondering, “Why would the value go up when so many schools have left?” — the answer lies in geography.

The value is in the content of the game, not necessarily the context of who’s playing in it. The geography of Division I athletics out west is unique — distances are more significant, and there are only so many schools (and shares) to go around.

May I add looking at Conference USA when they lost roughly half their membership — and the fan-favorite buzzword, “media value.” Despite all that, they still managed to increase their next media deal. I could be up at night, but the pulse I am hearing is that they won’t decrease.

If the goal for the MWC is to hit that $5 million mark while adding two non-football schools, the focus likely shifts toward basketball value. What could be happening is this: schools may be asked directly, “What would your share need to be to join the Mountain West?” In a sense, it could resemble a reverse auction, where the lowest “bid” or media share gets the invite.

The conference gets the bodies, and any financial difference goes back into the pot to help all members hit that “best effort” number or ideal AAV.

That could trigger another round of realignment. Any next move out west would create a domino effect — especially impacting the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), which in turn affects the youngest football conference in the country, the United Athletic Conference (UAC). And how does all this play into the rumored Summit League-MVFC partnership? Even the smallest move can send shockwaves through dozens of institutions.

And, of course, it might be announced by the time this is published that any expansion talks are dead. If that’s the case — great. We’ll still be talking about it. We’ll just find another cowbell to keep the beat of collegiate athletics going.