The 2022 FCS playoff bracket has 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large bids. Eight teams will be seeded with first-round byes. The national championship game is scheduled for Sunday, Jan. 8, in Frisco, Texas. It will air on ABC.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.
Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The Field
2021 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 7/8 seeds correct, 24/24 teams correct
Seeds
These are playoff predictions and don’t reflect my current Top 25. The numbers associated with teams may not match where I currently rank them on my ballot.
1. NDSU
2. Montana
3. Sac State
4. SDSU
5. Delaware
6. Missouri State
7. Holy Cross
8. Montana State
Auto-Bids
ASUN-WAC – Austin Peay
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – Campbell
CAA – Delaware
MVFC – NDSU
NEC – Sacred Heart
OVC – UT Martin
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Davidson
SoCon – Chattanooga
Southland – Southeastern
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Sac State (seed)
SDSU (seed)
Montana State (seed)
Missouri State (seed)
Weber State
UIW
Richmond
Mercer
Samford
21. SEMO
22. Southern Illinois
23. Elon
24. William & Mary
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from best chance to make the bracket out of this group to worst chance.
25. EKU
26. North Dakota
27. Villanova
28. Furman
29. Fordham
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket is regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee must utilize as many bus trips as possible in the first round. Bus trips (400 miles or less) are SEMO-Austin Peay, Samford-UT Martin, Davidson-Mercer, Campbell-Elon, Chattanooga-Southern Illinois, and Sacred Heart-Richmond.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Non-conference opponents who did play each other in the regular season can be matched up in the opening round.
Once first-round teams are paired up via proximity, they will be slotted with the seeds that are (again) as close as possible regionally.
The home team in a game between two unseeded teams is determined by who submitted the higher bid to host.
The order of seeds is NOT determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
Yes, it’s way too early for this. But the amount of “Can X team get a seed?” or “Do you think we’ll make the playoffs?” or “How many teams does X conference get in this year?” questions I’ve gotten already suggests people want to talk playoff picture in September. So let’s do it!
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
Seeds
NDSU (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS) hasn’t looked particularly sharp in its last two games, but until the Bison lose to an FCS opponent, it’s hard to knock them out of the No. 1 seed spot. If they do lose, it’ll be interesting to evaluate their 2-loss resume against some undefeated or 1-loss resumes. Montana is 4-0 with its toughest games ahead. The Griz look built to finish 10-1 or 11-0, as does Sac State, who is undefeated and owns an FBS win. SDSU (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS with one Top-10 ranked win) is the No. 4 seed even though I think the Jackrabbits are the second-best team in the country. They have a tough road slate, so I project another loss somewhere down the line.
Delaware is 4-0 with an FBS win. The Blue Hens look good enough to finish 11-0, but the CAA will likely cause at least one slip-up. Missouri State already has two losses, one to a P5 that will get tossed out the window. The Bears are good enough to win out from here, but we’ll see how they look week-to-week. Holy Cross is 4-0 with an FBS win. The Patriot League isn’t a great FCS conference, but if the Crusaders are able to finish 11-0 with that FBS win, or even 10-1, a seed is in line. And Montana State (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS with one ranked win) is the No. 8 seed, although tough games are ahead and Weber/UIW/SLU will be in play for a seed.
The Big Sky has four teams (Montana, Sac State, Montana State, and Weber State) right now that are in play for a seed. However, they mostly all play each other, so I think they will knock each other off enough to where three teams get a seed. Weber is 4-0 with a non-counter win and an FBS win. It does have consecutive games at Montana State, vs. Montana, and vs. Sac State later this year.
Auto-Bids
Austin Peay replaces EKU, Davidson replaces San Diego, and Southeastern replaces UIW from last week’s auto-bid projections.
At-Large Bids
After the four at-large bids that are seeds…
Weber and UIW are certainly in play for seeds. As is Southeastern, who just knocked off UIW. UIW may finish 10-1 with an FBS win and a ranked win vs. SIU, but SLU may also not lose the rest of the way after starting 0-2 with two FBS losses. So there’s a good argument that SLU should be a seed if it goes undefeated against FCS opponents with one ranked win against UIW.
I think Richmond (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS), Elon (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS with one ranked win), and William & Mary (3-1 overall with an FBS win) are looking playoff-worthy as three CAA at-large bids.
Same with Mercer (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS) and Samford (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS with one ranked win) out of the SoCon.
SEMO (3-1, 3-0 vs. FCS with one ranked win) looks like it can give the OVC an extra bid.
And SIU replaces UND as the MVFC’s fourth bid. SIU started 0-2 with losses to UIW and SEMO, but then beat FBS Northwestern and ranked UND.
Bubble Teams
EKU (2-2 overall with an FBS loss and an FBS win) just lost to Austin Peay. Right now, I don’t see room for two teams out of the ASUN-WAC. But that can change if EKU keeps winning. Nova (2-2 and 2-1 vs. FCS) lost a tough one to Monmouth, and there are already four CAA teams in.
I don’t know if the MVFC is carrying enough weight from its non-conference showings to get five teams in, so SIU knocked UND (2-2 and 2-1 vs. FCS) out for now after the head-to-head win. I have three SoCon teams ahead of Furman (3-1 and 2-0 vs FCS). The SoCon looks like a three-bid league, but four would be surprising.
And Fordham could make an interesting case if it finished second to Holy Cross in the Patriot League. At 3-1 overall with a close FBS loss and a win over Monmouth, who just beat ranked Villanova, could the Patriot get two teams in?
