The stakes have never been higher in the Brawl of the Wild, a monumental statement for one of the most fierce rivalries in all of college football. Never before has the (insert shortened mascot names in whatever order here) game featured two Top 5 nationally-ranked teams. Plus, the Big Sky outright title is on the line. PLUS, a potential No. 2 seed in the FCS playoffs may be grabbed by the winner, which, of course, comes with crucial home-field advantage.
Montana is 9-1 with three then-ranked wins (No. 20 UC Davis, No. 3 Idaho, No. 7 Sac State) and a loss to unranked Northern Arizona. Its Massey strength of schedule is currently 43rd.
MSU is 8-2 with two then-ranked wins (No. 10 Weber State, No. 3 Sac State) and two losses at No. 1 SDSU and now-No. 6 Idaho. Its Massey SOS is currently 10th.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
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If Montana Wins…
For Montana
The Grizzlies win their first Big Sky title since 2009 and likely earn a Top 3 playoff seed.
Montana’s case for the No. 2 seed and coveted home-field advantage would be strong. The Griz would finish 10-1 with four ranked wins, three over Top 10 teams. Furman could counter with its argument that it is 10-1 overall but 10-0 vs. the FCS with three ranked wins, it has one more D1 win than Montana, and it has been ranked No. 2 in both national polls recently. Montana could counter that with its projected year-end SOS ranked 31st compared to Furman’s 69th.
It would be a tight argument for the No. 2 seed.
And South Dakota could peek its head in the door and say, “Hello, we are 9-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS with the only loss to No. 1 SDSU, we have four ranked wins, three over Top 10 teams, and our SOS is 19th.”
In this scenario, the 2-4 seeds are probably between Montana, Furman, and South Dakota.
For Montana State
At 8-3, it’s possible the Bobcats get bumped to the first round. But it is looking more likely that multiple 8-3 squads could be among the Top 8 seeds.
MSU’s argument is it has two ranked road wins at Top 10 teams. Its three losses were also on the road at Top 10 teams, including being literally inches away from beating top-ranked SDSU and Idaho. Its projected year-end SOS is 5th. Strength of schedule is said to be one of the most talked about criteria in the selection process.
If the Bobcats were to get seeded, they’d likely fall in the 7-8 range. They would be seeded behind SDSU, Montana, Furman, South Dakota, the Delaware/Villanova winner, and Idaho (if Idaho beats Idaho State) while battling for the last couple of seeds with a potential 9-1 vs. the FCS UAlbany team, a potential 8-3 NDSU team, maybe an 8-3 Sac State team with a P5 win, or a potential nine-win Austin Peay team.
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If Montana State Wins…
For Montana State
The Bobcats win back-to-back conference titles, this one outright, and likely earn a Top 3 playoff seed.
They would be 9-2, highlighted by three road wins over Top 10 teams. The two losses were down-to-the-wire games at No. 1 SDSU and an Idaho team likely to be a seed if it wins Saturday to finish 8-3.
MSU’s case for the No. 2 seed and home-field advantage at Bobcat Stadium, where MSU hasn’t lost a game since 2019, would be strong.
Furman could counter with its argument that it is 10-1 overall but 10-0 vs. the FCS with three ranked wins, it has one more D1 win than MSU, two fewer FCS losses, and it has been ranked No. 2 in both national polls recently. MSU could counter that with its three ranked wins (No. 10, No. 3, No. 3) being better than Furman’s three ranked wins (No. 21, No. 8, No. 14) and its projected year-end SOS ranked 5th compared to Furman’s 69th.
It would be a tight argument for the No. 2 seed.
And South Dakota could peek its head in the door and say, “Hello, we are 9-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS with the only loss to No. 1 SDSU, we have four ranked wins, three over Top 10 teams, and our SOS is 19th.”
In this scenario, the 2-4 seeds are probably between MSU, Furman, and South Dakota.
For Montana
The Griz are still likely a seed at 9-2 overall and owning three ranked victories. They will have eight D1 wins, which could knock them back a spot or two. But the wins over Idaho and Sac State, two other teams in the seed conversation, should give Montana a seed in the 6-8 range.
Montana would likely be seeded behind SDSU, Montana State, Furman, South Dakota, and the Delaware/Villanova winner. The Griz could have a strong argument for the No. 6 seed, ahead of teams like Idaho, UAlbany, NDSU, Sac State, and Austin Peay.
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