Most Likely FCS Over FBS Wins In 2024

FCS teams take on the FBS more than 120 times in the 2024 season.

Last year saw a lower number of FCS over FBS wins with four, compared to eight in 2022 and 12 in 2021. It’s too soon to call this low number a trend, as the number of FCS wins over FBS opponents has always fluctuated. There were two in 2008, then 16 in 2013. Three in 2019, and 10 in 2016. Fifteen in 2000, and two in 2005.

It’s all about matchups in a particular year. And in 2024, there are some favorable matchups for several FCS over FBS victories.

We predicted six of the eight 2022 FCS over FBS wins. Last year saw us predict three of the four.

Here are 10 we believe are most likely to happen in 2024, with an honorable mention list below.

RELATED: 2024 FCS vs. FBS Payouts

10. Eastern Washington at Nevada

Nevada has been good to the FCS in the last two years. Idaho beat the Wolf Pack 33-6 last season, and UIW beat them 55-41 in 2022.

Jeff Choate, the former Montana State head coach who helped the Bobcats return to national relevancy, looks to turn around Nevada after being hired in December. It’ll be a big rebuilding project as Nevada ranks No. 122 in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

EWU, a typical FCS power, has seen some down seasons in the last two years. Yet the Eagles have pushed FBS opponents, losing 34-31 in double overtime at a good Fresno State team last fall. Expect an explosive 2024 offense led by quarterback Kekoa Visperas and wide receiver Efton Chism III. If the defense can come around under first-year defensive coordinator Eric Sanders, the Eagles will have a great shot to knock off Nevada.

9. South Dakota State at Oklahoma State

South Dakota State enters 2024 on a 29-game winning streak and winners of the last two FCS national titles. Plenty of headline names are gone, but the Jackrabbits will still have a veteran team with nearly 30 seniors.

Their defense should remain among the best, if not the best in the FCS, led by linebacker Adam Bock, safety Tucker Large, and cornerback Dalys Beanum. Offensively, All-American QB and Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski returns. The o-line will be a question mark, replacing three starters. Offensive weapons shouldn’t be an issue, though, with running backs Amar Johnson and Angel Johnson and wide receiver Griffin Wilde.

Oklahoma State is No. 20 in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings after finishing 10-4 last year. It’s going to be a tall task for SDSU to extend its winning streak. But the Jacks should be competitive with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

8. Idaho at Wyoming

Idaho eyes back-to-back FBS wins after defeating Nevada 33-6 in 2023. Wyoming will be decent this fall, but not an intimidating foe. The Cowboys rank 80th in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

The Vandals should be salty on defense, returning eight starters. The offense loses some standout names to the NFL or the transfer portal: WR Hayden Hatten, WR Jermaine Jackson, QB Gevani McCoy, RB Anthony Woods. However, QB Jack Layne has some hype behind him that he can be every bit as good, if not better than McCoy. Expect Idaho to make some strides on the o-line as well as it ascends into being an FCS contender.

7. Lafayette at Buffalo

From top to bottom, the MAC would be, what, like the third-best FCS conference?

The MAC has suffered five losses to FCS opponents in the last three seasons. And some of those losses weren’t exactly against household FCS names: Duquesne, Eastern Kentucky, Fordham.

Buffalo has lost back-to-back games against Patriot League teams (Fordham in 2023, Holy Cross in 2022). It may be in trouble again this fall as the 130th squad in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings. Lafayette won the Patriot League last year and returns its standout QB Dean DeNobile and 1,460-yard rusher Jamar Curtis.

6. UT Martin at Kennesaw State

Kennesaw struggled in its final season as an FCS member. The Owls finished 3-6 last year with their only wins coming against non-D1 opponents. They rank 129th in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

UT Martin has fielded a solid team, going 7-4 in 2022 and 8-3 last year but missing the playoffs both seasons. Good individual talent hasn’t been an issue, and the Skyhawks will have plenty in 2024. Returning standouts include LB Jaylon Sharpe, WR DeVonte Tanksley, OL Drake Carroll, DB Oshae Baker, and QB Kinkead Dent.

5. North Dakota State at Colorado

Head coach Deion Sanders and star quarterback Shedeur Sanders have created quite a stir on social media recently, making some wonder what the environment and culture are like at Colorado.

Part of being a good head coach is about having a finger on the pulse of the team, striking the right chord, and managing the psyche of your locker room. How Colorado internally treats NDSU in its game prep, a week before playing Nebraska, will be very telling in the first quarter. The Bison will land a big punch early. How will a Colorado team that is possibly lacking chemistry respond?

Even with a brand name like NDSU, the players may still just look at the letters FCS and assume it’ll be a warm-up game before their real power conference opponents, even if some players began at FCS programs. Heck, a bad Iowa State team even admitted they overlooked the three-time defending champs after a 34-14 loss in 2014. It happens if you focus too much on the FCS label.

Colorado will have the talent advantage, no doubt. But NDSU may have the physicality advantage, plus the advantage of an experienced team that has played together in several high-implication games. This will be a tight game going into the fourth quarter. If Colorado hasn’t improved its play in the trenches from last year, the Bison (especially their talent and depth on the d-line) could take over in the final 15 minutes.

4. Central Arkansas at Arkansas State

Central Arkansas is expected to return about 16 starters from its 7-4 squad last year. Two of those losses were by two points in conference play, and the other two were respectable performances in a 27-13 loss at Oklahoma State and a 49-31 loss at NDSU. 

Veteran QB Will McElvain returns along with a terrific RB duo of ShunDerrick Powell and Darius Hale. The defense is led by star names like DE David Walker and DB Tamaurian Wilson.

Expect a competitive game at Arkansas State, who finished 6-7 last year. The Red Wolves rank No. 88 in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

3. Sacramento State at San Jose State

Sac State notched a P5 win last fall, beating Stanford 30-23. It marked back-to-back seasons of FBS wins with a 41-10 beatdown of Colorado State in 2022. 

The Hornets face two FBS opponents this season, going to San Jose State and Fresno State. SJSU finished 7-6 last year and ranks No. 103 in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

Sac State will have a very talented offense in 2024, led by OL Jackson Slater, WR Jared Gipson, and two capable quarterbacks in Kaiden Bennett and Carson Conklin. The question will be can Sac State generate enough stops defensively to earn back-to-back-to-back FBS victories?

2. Fordham at Bowling Green

As mentioned above, the MAC has suffered some losses to Patriot League teams and five overall Ls to FCS opponents in the last three seasons. This may be another. 

Bowling Green finished 7-6 last year and ranks No. 110 in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.

Fordham beat Buffalo 40-37 last season and nearly knocked off Ohio in 2022, losing 59-52.

MAC defenses have certainly struggled against Fordham’s offense. And Fordham, who finished 6-5 last year, will be explosive again. CJ Montes is a top returning FCS quarterback after throwing for 3,000 yards, 26 TDs, and one interception. Running back Julius Loughridge is also back after rushing for 1,146 yards and 10 scores.

1. Montana State at New Mexico

Just not a good matchup for New Mexico here. One of the worst FBS teams against one of the best FCS teams? Oh boy. 

Montana State will be in the hunt for an FCS title this fall behind a terrific o-line, deep running back room, veteran QB Tommy Mellott, and its most talented WR Lonyatta Alexander Jr. on the field. The 6-foot-3 Alexander had to sit out last year due to transfer rules after coming in from Washington. The defense will have standouts at all three levels in All-American DE Brody Grebe, experienced LB Danny Uluilakepa, and the talented safeties Dru Polidore and Rylan Ortt.

New Mexico has finished 4-8, 2-10, and 3-9 in the last three seasons. The Lobos made a good hire in Bronco Mendenhall, but it will be quite the rebuilding project. They rank 131st in ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings. 

Honorable Mention: Chattanooga at Georgia State, Jackson State at ULM, Monmouth at FIU, Nicholls at Louisiana Tech, Northern Iowa at Hawaii, Southern Utah at UTEP