The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. SEMO
5. Mercer
6. UC Davis
7. South Dakota
8. Idaho
9. UIW
10. Richmond
11. Chattanooga
12. Tarleton State
13. Montana
14. Rhode Island
15. Central Arkansas
16. Villanova
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Richmond
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Tarleton State
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Chattanooga (seed)
Montana (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Central Arkansas (seed)
Villanova (seed)
North Dakota
Last 4 In
William & Mary
Abilene Christian
ETSU
Western Carolina
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. UT Martin
26. Illinois State
27. Southeastern Louisiana
28. Northern Arizona
29. Stephen F. Austin
30. Tennessee State
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
Last week, I projected Montana State to be the No. 1 seed, NDSU as the No. 2 seed, and SDSU as the No. 3 seed, correctly picking NDSU to beat SDSU (not to brag).
After looking a bit more into it, I think the Bison would have an edge for the top seed.
No. 1 seed NDSU has a good shot to win out. If they do, the Bison would be undefeated vs. the FCS (11-0, 11-1 overall) with wins over potentially seven ranked teams, including upcoming games against Missouri State and South Dakota.
No. 2 seed Montana State is also looking good to win out. The Bobcats would be 12-0 overall with an FBS win and potentially three ranked wins, including upcoming games against UC Davis and Montana.
NDSU’s projected year-end Massey strength of schedule is 5th in the FCS. MSU’s is 24th. NDSU having the tougher strength of schedule and 2x the number of ranked wins, plus being No. 1 in both polls leads me to believe the playoff committee would seed the Bison No. 1 and MSU No. 2 if both were to win out.
I also think No. 3 seed SDSU is going to win out. That would put SDSU at 10-2 overall with nine FCS wins and around five victories over ranked opponents, including upcoming games against USD, UND, and Missouri State. That should be good for the No. 3 seed.
After that? Frankly, it gets very hard to project who the next few seeds are.
South Dakota and UC Davis are ranked 4th and 5th in the polls this week. But both could finish with at least two more losses. USD still needs to play at Top 10 teams SDSU and UND while hosting No. 1 NDSU. UC Davis still has to play Top 10 teams Montana (on the road) and Montana State (at home) before traveling to rival Sac State, who is usually ranked.
I slid South Dakota and UC Davis behind SEMO and Mercer in the projected seeds because of those potential upcoming losses. No. 4 seed SEMO could finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with a near FBS win. It would have around three ranked wins. No. 5 Mercer just lost big to Samford. But the Bears get their toughest SoCon opponents at home to finish the season. They could finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with around four ranked wins.
Those are good resumes to round out the Top 5 seeds.
UC Davis and South Dakota can go from the No. 6 and 7 seeds into the Top 5 if they are able to pull off some big upsets.
No. 8 seed Idaho has cooled off from its hot start and is battling injuries across its 2-deep. But the Vandals have an easier finish to the season. They will be favored to win out and finish 9-3 overall with three ranked wins and an FBS win. That may be enough to slide Idaho ahead of No. 9 seed UIW, who is currently 5-2 vs. the FCS with two losses to then-ranked teams (SDSU, SIU). The Cardinals look primed to finish 10-2, but it may lack any ranked wins for a Top 8 seed.
To round out the Top 10, No. 10 seed Richmond is currently 5-2 overall and 5-1 vs. the FCS. The Spiders could hit 10 wins, but they may only have one ranked victory in a Nov. 23 game against William & Mary, although beating Delaware could count as a “rankable” win. Richmond gave Delaware its first loss of the season, but the Blue Hens aren’t eligible for the polls as part of their increase in scholarships for the FBS transition.
Seeds 11-16 all look to be in that 8-10 win range. As their resumes fill out and there are fewer upcoming games to sort through, we’ll dive more into the seeds and bubble teams and why they are positioned in their spots.