No. 3 seed Montana hosts No. 14 seed South Dakota State in the second round of the FCS playoffs. The winner will face either No. 6 seed Mercer or No. 11 seed South Dakota.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Montana vs. SDSU On TV
The matchup between Montana and SDSU airs on ESPN+.
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 6. It takes place at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Missoula, Montana.
Montana vs. SDSU Odds
Montana is a 3.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points at 53.5.
SDSU is +145 on the moneyline compared to Montana at -175
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Montana vs. SDSU Preview
One of the tougher early-round games to predict in recent memory.
Is SDSU that good after blowing out New Hampshire 41-3 last week while enjoying the return of QB Chase Mason, who looked even better than he did before his injury? Or are we overreacting to a performance against an overmatched UNH team that didn’t show much interest in fighting back in the snow and cold after falling behind early?
Is there really a chance that Montana could exit the playoffs this early? After starting 11-0, looking like a national title contender, and losing a 50/50 game against a Montana State team that is up there as the most complete in the FCS?
Not only is Mason back, but SDSU standouts Chase Van Tol (LB) and Sam Hagen (RT) are back on the depth chart after not being listed for the last few weeks due to injury. Van Tol is the Chase Mason of SDSU’s defense. And Hagen is an NFL talent. Whether they play or not is TBD, but they are trending in that direction. All the mojo and momentum are on SDSU’s side after its season looked to be circling the drain until a Week 13 comeback win at UND. But again, is last week’s performance enough to erase the bad ball SDSU was playing down the stretch of the regular season?
Is allowing too many explosive plays no longer an issue? Montana is as explosive as it gets with QB Keali’i Ah Yat, RB Eli Gillman, WR/AP Michael Wortham, and WR Brooks Davis.
SDSU’s offensive line has gotten a much better push in the run game lately after shuffling some guys around. But is the o-line allowing too much penetration, an issue for much of this season, going to show itself again vs. a pressure-heavy Montana team? If the Grizzlies generate some negative-yardage plays to put SDSU in obvious passing situations, how well can Mason escape pressure when a Montana linebacker is coming off the edge or is quickly in his face on a double-A-gap blitz? Mason didn’t have to move around much last week, so it was hard to tell if he was still somewhat limited with his foot injury, which took several weeks to heal enough for him to play.
SDSU looked really good last week. I’m not sure we know just how good they are, though. Maybe the Jackrabbits are indeed back. Maybe UNH shouldn’t have been in the playoffs. We’ll find out soon.
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The Jacks do look to have an edge in the trenches. Montana’s run defense couldn’t get off the field late in the Montana State game. Meanwhile, SDSU’s physical RB Julius Loughridge has looked much better in recent weeks.
Keep an eye on the weather. With rain and snow possible in Missoula, does that tip the scales in SDSU’s favor in this coin-flip matchup? Montana wants to get their guys in space. If the weather forces the teams to play this game in a phone booth, can Montana win that style of ball?
Staying ahead of the chains and getting touchdowns, not field goals, in the red zone are huge keys for SDSU. Winning 1-on-1s in the open field offensively and holding up against the run for all four quarters are crucial keys for Montana.
I have flip-flopped here plenty this week. My gut tells me SDSU’s rollercoaster season isn’t ready to be done yet. But my head tells me Montana is still a Top 2 threat to reach Nashville on this side of the bracket. It’s hard to see the Griz losing two straight at home.
Prediction: Montana 35-31
