Most Likely FCS Over FBS Wins In 2025

FCS teams take on the FBS more than 120 times in the 2025 season.

There are a handful of favorable matchups for some FCS over FBS victories.

Last year saw six FCS over FBS wins, which was more than 2023’s four wins but fewer than 2022’s eight wins.

Of the six FCS over FBS wins last fall, we mentioned five of them as the most likely. We predicted three of the four in 2023, and six of the eight in 2022.

Here are eight we believe are most likely to happen in 2025, with an honorable mention list below.

RELATED: 2025 FCS vs. FBS Payouts

8. Tarleton State at Army 

Tarleton State’s fast rise could continue by notching an FBS win. It’d be the second in Tarleton’s short time as a Division I member. The Texans defeated New Mexico State 43-17 back in the 2021 spring season. After going 10-4 last year, Tarleton returns its All-Conference quarterback Victor Gabalis to lead the offense. And defensively, 11 of its top 12 tacklers are back, led by defensive lineman Brandon Tolvert and safety Blake Smith. Army went 12-2 last year, but it ranks No. 96 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

7. Southern Illinois at Purdue 

SIU has a track record of FBS wins, beating Northern Illinois 14-11 in 2023, Northwestern 31-24 in 2022, and UMass 45-20 in 2019. The Salukis finished 4-8 last year, getting snakebit by injuries after being preseason ranked No. 10. They’re expected to have a bounce-back season. Six starters are back on offense, plus quarterback DJ Williams, who impressed in the first three games last fall before a season-ending injury. Five starters are back on defense, plus standout linebacker Colin Bohanek, who also missed most of last season. Can SIU grab another win over a Big Ten program? Purdue went 1-11 in 2024. It ranks No. 92 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

6. UIW at UTSA 

If there’s an FCS team that can crack into the Mon-Dak dominance of the FCS this year, UIW seems the most likely. After an 11-3 season, the Cardinals return their All-American wide receiver (Jalen Walthall), No. 2 rusher (Lontrell Turner), All-Conference tight end (Logan Compton), added a former Southland Conference Player of the Year at RB (Jaylon Spears), and added a former FCS All-American WR (Chedon James). Defensively, UIW returns five of its top 11 tacklers, led by linebackers Dune Smith and Declan Williams, along with DL John Mathis. UIW has FBS wins over Texas State (42-34) in 2021 and Nevada (55-41) in 2022. Its last FBS opponent was UTEP in 2023, losing 28-14. UTSA went 7-6 last fall and ranks No. 70 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

5. Abilene Christian at Tulsa 

ACU nearly knocked off Texas Tech last season, losing 52-51 in overtime. The Wildcats finished 9-5 and hope to continue to establish themselves as a consistent playoff contender. The offense loses most of last year’s production, although it’ll have talent at wide receiver and QB Stone Earle returns to the program after some years in the FBS. He started eight games at ACU in 2021. The defense will be experienced, returning seven of its top 12 tacklers, led by LB Will Shaffer, LB Chris Wright, and DL Kaghen Roach. Tulsa is preseason ranked No. 130 out of 136 FBS teams on ESPN’s preseason College Football Power Index after going 3-9.

4. Rhode Island at Western Michigan

Rhode Island looks to build off of an 11-3 campaign and is getting some preseason Top 10 love. The Rams are experienced offensively. Devin Farrell returns at quarterback after an All-CAA Third Team season. He’ll have two-time All-CAA wide receiver Marquis Buchanan to throw to. The offensive line returns four starters, led by Brock Bethea and Tre Alexander. The defense returns only four of its top 15 tacklers, but linebacker A.J. Pena is back as one of the premier defenders in the FCS. Last year, he racked up 82 tackles, 22.5 TFLs, and 12.5 sacks. Western Michigan is coming off a 6-7 season and is ranked No. 109 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

3. Jackson State at Southern Miss 

Jackson State is loaded this season after finishing 12-2 and winning the Celebration Bowl. From last year’s offense that scored 36.4 points per game (No. 5 in the FCS), JSU returns its starting quarterback (JaCobian Morgan), top wide receiver in catches (Joanes Fortilien), top tight end (Marvin Landy), three starting offensive linemen, and added an All-SWAC First Team WR (Nate Rembert). The defense, which allowed 17.1 points per game last year (No. 6 in the FCS), returns four of its top six tacklers, led by linebacker Reid Pulliam and defensive tackle Jeremiah Williams. Southern Miss went 1-11 in 2024 and ranks No. 108 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

RELATED: 2025 Preseason Preview Central

2. Sacramento State at Nevada 

Sac State loaded up on talent this offseason and brings in plenty of hype under first-year head coach Brennan Marion. The Hornets signed more than 50 transfers, including more than 40 from the D1 level and around 35 from the FBS. Highlighting those transfers are Jaden Rashada, who started a few games at quarterback for Arizona State in 2023, FCS All-American running back Jamar Curtis from Lafayette, and four-star wide receivers Jordan Anderson from Oregon State and Ernest Campbell from Texas A&M. Sac State has two FBS wins in recent years, beating Stanford 30-23 in 2023 and Colorado State 41-10 in 2022. Nevada finished 3-10 last fall and ranks No. 128 out of 136 FBS teams on ESPN’s preseason College Football Power Index.

1. Monmouth at Charlotte 

Monmouth notched an FBS win last year, beating FIU 45-42. The Hawks are loaded offensively this season after owning the No. 2 FCS scoring offense (39 PPG). All-American quarterback Derek Robertson returns after throwing for 3,937 yards, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions. His top six pass-catchers are all back, led by Josh Derry and TJ Speight, along with Monmouth’s leading rusher, Rodney Nelson, and four starting offensive linemen. The question is, can the defense get enough stops after allowing 33.5 points per game last year? Charlotte is a gettable FBS opponent, going 5-7 last season and ranking No. 116 on ESPN’s preseason FBS College Football Power Index.

Honorable Mention: Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee, Duquesne at Akron, Holy Cross at Northern Illinois, Idaho at Washington State, Lafayette at Bowling Green, Lamar at North Texas, Merrimack at Kent State, New Hampshire at Ball State, Saint Francis at Buffalo, South Dakota at Iowa State, Southeastern at Louisiana Tech, UT Martin at UTEP