The 2025 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 11 auto-bids from 11 conferences and 13 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded, with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2024 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 29/32 Top 8 seeds correct, 92/96 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Tarleton State
3. South Dakota State
4. Montana
5. Montana State
6. UC Davis
7. North Dakota
8. Lehigh
9. Monmouth
10. Tennessee Tech
11. Mercer
12. Harvard
13. Rhode Island
14. SFA
15. Villanova
16. Lamar
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana
CAA – Monmouth
Ivy – Harvard
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
OVC-Big South – Tennessee Tech
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – SFA
UAC – Tarleton State
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
Montana State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
North Dakota (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Lamar (seed)
Youngstown State
Northern Arizona
Last 4 In
21. Illinois State
22. Austin Peay
23. Southeastern Louisiana University
24. Western Carolina
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Abilene Christian
26. William & Mary
27. Southern Illinois
27. Dartmouth
28. Presbyterian
29. UTRGV
The Bracket
Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid.
First-round matchups are regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
This section will typically have between 1,000-2,000 words, breaking down each team, their current resume, their future games, and why they have a pathway to a seed, an at-large bid, etc.
Keep in mind that this bracketology is a projection and factors in future games.
We obviously have four weeks of games still to be played, so this is going to be fluid and will move around each week. But it’s an entertaining exercise to see how each week of results shapes the playoff picture. And it also gives fan bases an idea of “This is where we’re at now, this is where other teams are at to keep an eye on, this is our remaining schedule, and if we win out or lose just one more game, we can get a seed in this range.”
If a team is on the bubble, this will give those fans an idea of what teams to keep an eye on and where their resume is at. Same with Top 2 seeds, Top 4 seeds, Top 8, etc.
As we get closer to Selection Sunday, I’ll dive more into details on resumes, ranked wins, strength of schedule, upcoming games, etc., to explain why I think Team A will be the No. 1 seed, Team B will be the No. 8 seed, Team C is left on the bubble, and so on.
