“Hunter Luepke is the best offensive player in the FCS, but he won’t win the Walter Payton Award because these are always stat-driven awards.”
That’s a statement I’ve heard or seen online this season from the fans and some media of North Dakota State. And they are partially correct.
The Walter Payton Award goes to the best FCS offensive player. Just like any award in any sport at any level, putting up big numbers is going to get you on the radar of voters. Luepke is on the watch list already from the preseason. This list is put together by Stats Perform, who organizes the national FCS awards and the Top 25 media poll. These are voted on by 50+ people across the country, from conference or school SIDs, media members that cover a certain team or conference, and a few national FCS media members.
The reality is a majority of the voters are busting their butts on Saturdays covering or working the games for their teams. They simply don’t have time to be watching dozens of FCS games a weekend. Such is life in the small FCS media market.
“Box-score watchers” is a term fans like to throw out when one of their players doesn’t get recognized as much as that fan base wants. But I do believe most voters, even if they aren’t watching every game, realize that numbers actually do lie, especially in the FCS. Who you play, the style of ball you play, is your team dominating or in a lot of close games … those things all play a part in how big of numbers a player puts up.
Everyone should understand that Player A’s 3,000 passing yards doesn’t necessarily make him better than Player B’s 2,000 passing yards.
And here’s the thing for NDSU fans, there are several examples when it comes to national awards/rankings/lists of people not being “box-score watchers” when it comes to recognizing Bison standouts.
Christian Watson was an All-American WR last year despite being No. 54 in receiving yards per game.
Noah Gindorff was a preseason All-American TE this summer despite there being double-digit returning tight ends who had better numbers than him.
Michael Tutsie was a preseason All-American safety coming into this year despite not even being in the Top 200 in tackles per game last season and only having one interception and four passes defended.
Eli Mostaert was also a preseason All-American at DT this summer despite being outside the Top 60 in sacks per game and TFLs per game last season.
Luepke was viewed as one of the best returning offensive backs despite him being No. 155 last season in rushing yards per game.
And last example, this one involving the Walter Payton Award. Trey Lance won the award in 2019 despite not putting up monstrous numbers.
It’s important to note that voting for these awards happens right after the regular season and before the playoffs. So only regular-season play is taken into account. This allows Stats Perform to organize and get the finalists and their coaches/SIDs set up for their trip to the awards ceremony in Frisco, Texas, before the national title game.
Of the 26 finalists we voters were able to vote for in 2019, 15 were quarterbacks. Lance’s 2,041 passing yards at the time of voting was dead last among those 15 QBs while also having 684 yards rushing. Lance had 23 passing TDs at the time, zero interceptions, and nine rushing TDs. Solid numbers, but not crazy-good numbers like the other finalists.
Yet Lance became the first freshman to be voted the Walter Payton Award winner.
Bison fans can’t really pull the “these are all about numbers” card when it comes to preseason and postseason accolades.
Which brings us back to Luepke.
Through four games, the 6-foot-1 and 236-pound fullback has 45 carries for 329 yards and six TDs, plus five catches for 87 yards and two scores. He’s been unstoppable when given the rock, averaging 7.3 yards per carry.
Will this production continue? Honestly, probably not. Because the Bison don’t need to give him the ball 15+ times in most games. They can limit his carries to contests they need him the most. Luepke had three carries against Drake (blowout), four carries against NC A&T (blowout), 18 carries against Arizona (close FBS loss), and 20 carries against South Dakota (a close game at halftime). NDSU has enough backs and are far superior to most opponents to not have to ride Luepke all season and to keep the bulldozer healthy. He’ll probably have single-digit carries in four of the final seven regular-season games.
Last season, Luepke’s carries in a game looked like this:
2
4
2
9
10
3
7
0
4
4
9
19
14
In those final two games, he had 19 carries for 110 yards, plus three catches for 89 yards and two scores in the semifinals against James Madison. In the national championship game, he was named the Most Outstanding Player after rushing 14 times for 82 yards and three scores against Montana State.
In four of the last six games between late last season and so far this year when Luepke has been fully unleashed, he’s been unstoppable. After a combined seven carries in the first two games in 2022, he had 18 carries for 115 yards and two TDs plus three catches for 65 yards and a score at Arizona. And then he recorded 20 carries for 146 yards and two TDs at South Dakota.
Voters should notice these dominant performances against quality opponents more than what his final regular-season numbers show. If NDSU wasn’t crushing some of its opponents and wanted to give Luepke 20 carries every game, he’d probably break records. But the Bison don’t have to do that. I think voters will/should recognize what a force Luepke is, even if his 800 yards rushing or whatever it’ll be doesn’t jump off the stats page.
Am I saying that Luepke is definitely going to win the Walter Payton Award? Not necessarily. There will be a lot of worthy candidates. But what I am saying is Luepke has a much better chance to win it than even some NDSU fans think. Luepke will get more voting love (each voter votes for their Top 5 per award) than maybe what’s being anticipated.
Because there are several examples nationally of people going beyond “box-score watching” when it comes to giving NDSU players respect on an individual level.
