For the better part of a decade, North Dakota State has lived in the awkward space between dominance and inevitability. Dominant on the field. Inevitable in the way fans, media, and peers keep asking the same question: When will NDSU move up to the FBS?
In recent weeks, that conversation has picked up steam again.
A Brett McMurphy tweet from 2024 suggesting the Mountain West is at least considering North Dakota State as a football-only member poured gasoline on a fire that never really went out. Add in podcasters, PR chatter, and recent comments from Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman about top-tier FCS programs being willing to pay for entry, and the noise level has gone up another notch.
But as North Dakota State athletic director Matt Larsen has made clear, noise and traction are not the same thing.
On The Insiders podcast in late 2024, Larsen addressed the online fervor directly … one that is still applicable today.
“I know there are a lot of people in the fan base and the community that would love this to play out over Twitter, and that’s just not the way the world works,” Larsen said. “If you got into conferences because you tweeted a lot at it, then yeah, I guess we’d probably try to do that. But that’s just not the way the world works.”
That quote matters because it frames this entire discussion correctly. The Bison brand is strong. The success is undeniable. But conference realignment at the FBS level is not a merit badge system. It is a financial and institutional decision that lives well beyond wins and trophies.
And when you actually look at the numbers, the climb is steeper than it appears on paper.
The Buy-In Is Real, And It Is Only the Beginning
At the surface level, the math is simple.
Moving from FCS to FBS comes with an estimated $5 million NCAA reclassification fee. On top of that, as Extra Points founder Matt Brown has noted, buying into an FBS league can easily require another $10 million.
So yes, the price of entry is likely in the $10-$15 million range.
That number gets tossed around frequently, often as if it is the final hurdle. Write the check, hang the banner, move on.
It is not that simple.
That figure gets you through the front door. It does not pay for what comes next.
The financial data referenced here comes from the NCAA Membership Financial Report System (MFRS) filings. While those numbers can be imperfect and, in some cases, institutions may shift or mask expenses through academic departments, the data still provides a very strong baseline and an accurate pulse of the financial landscape. All figures cited reflect 2024 calendar-year reporting from participating institutions. To contextualize North Dakota State’s position, I also reference the current Mountain West landscape as a comparative benchmark. Credit to Extra Points Library for this data.
The MFRS report includes roughly 50 distinct revenue and expense line items, and additional context is provided where categories warrant clarification. I’ll only show a few of these because I want to keep your attention, and we are on a word count here.
Let’s start with football expenses. If this move happens, it would likely be football-only, so this focuses on total football expenses. I included Hawai‘i in this data set since they are currently a football-only member, and this is football-only data, not department-wide. The rest of these do not include Hawai’i.
I think this is telling in a lot of ways. I won’t give a full explanation and will let you, the reader, make the case. As noted above, MFRS reports can make it easy to hide money elsewhere, especially within broader expense categories, but they still provide a strong pulse of where a school is at. Because this line item is so specific, the margin for error or creative accounting is much smaller.
Football Expenses
- Average (Mean): $18,988,564
- Leader: Colorado State University, $31,356,224
- Lowest: University of Nevada (Reno), $13,562,661
North Dakota State: $6,527,171
Total Revenue
Total revenues for the athletics program minus “Less Transfers to the Institution.”
- Average (Mean): $62,903,320
- Leader: San Diego State University, $91,423,101.
- Lowest: San Jose State University, $44,239,752.
North Dakota State: $29,948,436
Ticket Sales
Revenue received from ticket sales for all NCAA-sponsored sports at an institution.
- Average (Mean): $5,994,267
- Leader: San Diego State University, $8,842,022.
- Lowest: San Jose State University, $1,021,124.
North Dakota State: $4,543,664
Student Fees
Fees paid by students and allocated for the restricted use of the athletics department.
- Average (Mean): $5,320,175
- Leader: San Diego State University, $15,106,458.
- Lowest: U.S. Air Force Academy, $401,115.
Note: As a federal service academy, its funding model is unique and relies almost entirely on government support rather than student tuition surcharges.
North Dakota State: $1,335,155
Indirect Institutional Support Revenue
The value of costs covered and services provided by the institution to athletics, but not charged to athletics. These costs are administrative services provided by the university to athletics that are not charged, such as HR, Accounting and IT, Facilities Maintenance, Security, Risk Management, and Utilities, but not depreciation.
- Average (Mean): $2,238,821
- Leader: Utah State University, $5,476,110.
- Lowest: San Jose State University, $0.
North Dakota State: $2,164,806
Facilities Debt Service & Lease Fees
Debt service payments (principal and interest, including internal loan programs), leases, and rental fees for athletics facilities for the reporting year provided by the institution to athletics but not charged to athletics. Depreciation is not reported.
- Average (Mean): $590,963
- Leader: Utah State University, $3,338,147.
- Lowest: Multiple Schools (including Wyoming, SDSU, and UNLV) report $0. This means their athletic departments either pay their own debt, have no debt, or the university covers the costs through facilities or academic entities (most likely here).
North Dakota State: $156,750
Total Expenses
- Average (Mean): $66,365,817
- Highest Spender: San Diego State, $120,525,634.
- Lowest Spender: San Jose State, $47,405,380.
North Dakota State: $30,251,922
Coaching Salaries & Benefits
(University and Related Entities)
- Average (Mean): $12,249,500
- Highest: San Diego State, $17,533,383
- Lowest: New Mexico: $9,798,216.
North Dakota State: $5,983,732
Athletic Student Aid
This category covers scholarships and financial assistance provided to student-athletes.
- Average (Mean): $8,789,950
- Middle Point (Median): $9,151,195
- Highest: New Mexico, $11,352,116.
- Lowest: Air Force at $0. This is unique to the service academy model, where all students receive free tuition and housing from the federal government rather than through athletic department scholarships.
North Dakota State: $5,178,008
Team Travel
- Average (Mean): $4,873,554
- Middle Point (Median): $4,597,713
- Highest: Air Force, $6,566,915.
- Lowest: Utah State, $4,021,763.
North Dakota State: $2,964,503
Indirect Institutional Support Expense
This is the value of services provided by the university (like office space or HR) that the athletic department “pays back” or accounts for.
- Average (Mean): $2,238,821
- Middle Point (Median): $2,365,734
- Highest: Utah State, $5,476,110.
- Lowest: San Jose State, $0.
North Dakota State: $2,164,806
Three Things That Actually Matter
Overall, I think this decision comes down to three areas.
The first is the athletic department’s desire and support. That part is obvious. North Dakota State has always been intentional and ambitious in its operations. Larsen has never shied away from acknowledging the goal of playing at the highest level possible, provided it is the right fit.
The second is the most important, and often the least discussed. Campus leadership and board-level support, including real financial commitment (see above!).
Not symbolic support. Not aspirational support. Actual dollars.
The third is a conference invitation.
That invitation does not come without confidence that the first two boxes are already checked.
Over the past year and a half, multiple sources have told me the same thing. One side of this equation is all in on a move. The other remains lukewarm.
I will not say which is which. You can speculate.
But that dynamic matters, especially with a key institutional milestone approaching.
Why March 1, 2026, Matters
On March 1, 2026, North Dakota State will enter its first day without President David Cook, who will begin his tenure at Iowa State.
That date looms large.
The university has hired Academic Search to assist with the presidential transition. Finalists are expected to visit campus the week of March 23, with the State Board of Higher Education targeting a selection the following week. A July 1 start date is realistic if the timeline holds.
Could the board grant interim authority to pursue an FBS move before that transition is complete? Possibly.
More likely, this is a “play it out” scenario where a new president helps define the university’s long-term athletic posture.
That does not mean nothing happens in the meantime. It means any real traction is likely quiet and very methodical.
Wrap Up
The Bison brand is strong enough to justify the conversation. And to be fair, there are several FCS programs that already operate more like FBS schools than some institutions currently at that level. I do believe the best fit right now, should it all line up, is a football-only membership for NDSU in the Mountain West. They pair well with Northern Illinois on many levels.
Overall, this is not about whether North Dakota State belongs. It is about whether the institution is willing to permanently operate in a financial environment that demands greater spending, higher risk, and increased uncertainty than ever before. That is especially true as traction continues to build outside of the CFP for alternative postseason models and even long-term relegation concepts.
This is also not a set-it-and-forget-it decision. Any move would ripple well beyond the present, impacting the next president, the next athletic director, future head coaches, and every student-athlete who follows.
And that is why this story is not ending anytime soon.
