Week 4 of the 2024 FCS season features three matchups between Top 25 teams, plus several intriguing non-conference games.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 18-7
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 4 Top 5 Games
No. 24 Western Carolina at No. 9 Montana
WCU got a much-needed victory last week, winning 24-17 at No. 22 Elon. It was a good bounce-back victory after a disappointing home loss to unranked Campbell. That loss came after WCU looked good against FBS No. 24 NC State, leading 21-17 in the third quarter before losing 38-21. So it’s been an up-and-down start for the Catamounts after high preseason expectations.
The same can be said for Montana’s start to the season. The Grizzlies are 2-1, beating Missouri State in a closer game than some expected, losing at then-No. 20 North Dakota after holding a big halftime lead, and then beating overmatched Morehead State 59-2. Montana has a very high ceiling in the national title picture. But it’s been a bit slow out of the gates. The defense is still gelling, while the offense has shown glimpses of being really good. It’s also struggled with inconsistencies, although a shuffling of the o-line and at the center position could solve some pass protection issues.
Cole Gonzales was considered a top returning quarterback in the FCS this fall. He was sharp against NC State and Elon, but he threw four interceptions in the loss to Campbell. It’s a phenomenal test for Gonzales, going up against a pressure-heavy Montana defense in front of the noisiest FCS crowd.
I think WCU can move the ball and get some points on the board. But WCU’s defense, while fast and athletic, could wear down as Montana looks to control the clock. Montana has a loaded running back room to lean on, led by one of the best backs in the FCS, Eli Gillman. Time of possession and a timely turnover or two leads to a Griz win.
Prediction: Montana 35-27
No. 21 SEMO at No. 7 Southern Illinois
The Salukis made a statement in the first half last week, leading No. 12 UIW 35-14. UIW scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it a 35-28 final. SIU was dealt with some bad news a couple of days after the game, though. Starting quarterback DJ Williams will miss time, needing surgery on his right hand. He was just coming off of an electric game, throwing for 301 yards while rushing for 79. Hunter Simmons, last year’s backup, will take over as the starter.
Shoutout to SIU for challenging itself in a nice non-conference slate as it hosts another ranked opponent this week in the “War for the Wheel.”
SEMO comes in with a 2-1 record, including a near win at FBS New Mexico State. After a solid rushing game in Week 0, the Redhawks have really leaned on the arm of Paxton DeLaurent. The veteran standout attempted 45 passes at NMSU (completing 27 for 295 yards and a touchdown) and 63 passes against UT Martin (completing 34 for 376 yards and six TDs).
Teams have found success throwing the ball on SIU’s defense. The Salukis are allowing 335.3 passing yards per game compared to 101 rushing YPG. But SIU has also gotten after the quarterback, racking up 13 sacks in three games. Ben Bogle has emerged as an early candidate for the Buck Buchanan Award with 28 tackles, nine TFLs, and 5.5 sacks.
If SIU can establish a ground game on a SEMO defense that is allowing 206.3 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt, it’ll ease Simmons in his first start. And if SIU can make SEMO one-dimensional offensively, I think its defense can pin its ears back and get DeLaurent on the ground often via sacks, hurries, and hits.
Prediction: SIU 28-24
No. 4 Idaho at No. 19 Abilene Christian
ACU had an impressive first two weeks of the season, taking FBS Texas Tech to overtime before losing 52-51 and then beating West Georgia 38-24. UWG had just beaten Samford. But last week, the Wildcats edged out Northern Colorado 24-22, a team that is a combined 0-14 in 2024 and 2023.
They now welcome an Idaho team that looks like the most complete squad in the FCS. The Vandals battled FBS No. 3 Oregon into the fourth quarter, beat FBS Wyoming, and then throttled No. 17 UAlbany 41-13.
ACU QB Maverick McIvor has been terrific, throwing for 1,032 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions through three games. They’ll go up against the best defense in the FCS. Idaho is allowing 16.7 points per game and 103.7 rushing yards per game (keep in mind the teams Idaho has played when comparing statistics). They are also getting after the QB with 11 sacks. Keyshawn James-Newby has six of those.
Idaho wants to control the clock, keeping ACU’s explosive offense off the field. The Vandals will look to establish the run and keep backup-QB-turned-starter Jack Wagner comfortable. They have found a nice 1-2 punch at RB with Elisha Cummings and Nate Thomas, two guys that can get going against an ACU team allowing 168 rushing yards per game. I expect another solid showing from Idaho’s o-line opening up running lanes. And Idaho’s defense will be able to contain ACU’s passing attack with some assistance from its d-line getting the Wildcats out of sync.
Prediction: Idaho 31-21
Eastern Illinois at No. 17 Illinois State
Both teams entered this fall with high expectations.
Illinois State returned its standout running back, top receivers, three starting offensive line, and its top seven tacklers after going 6-5 last year with multiple close losses. EIU finished 8-3 last season and returned an experienced OL, its All-Conference QB/RB/WR, and nine of its top 12 tacklers.
But neither have looked the part just yet.
Illinois State lost 40-0 at FBS Iowa, beat North Alabama 24-17, and then was in a back-and-forth battle against a struggling Western Illinois program before pulling away for a 51-34 win. EIU is 1-2 with two FBS losses. And in its FCS win, it only beat Indiana State 27-20.
ISU is battling injuries to key players. Standout running back Mason King and All-American offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano are out for the season. And All-American LB Amir Abdullah is missing time due to injury.
The Redbirds haven’t looked strong on defense, and EIU’s experienced offense led by QB Pierce Holley and RB MJ Flowers can take advantage. I’ll call the upset here. If you can even call it an upset. Keep in mind that EIU beat ISU 14-13 last year, and the Panthers have just as much returning experience on the field.
Prediction: EIU 21-17
ETSU at Elon
ETSU looks to prove last week’s showing against NDSU wasn’t a one-time performance, while Elon looks to bounce back from its loss to Western Carolina.
Elon’s defense, which allows only 110 rushing yards per game, looks to make ETSU beat them through the air. Now, ETSU almost knocked off the Bison despite its passing attack looking below average. Jaylen King finished 6/15 passing for 113 yards. But the Bucs rushed for 270 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry.
Elon’s strong front seven should be able to limit the rushing attack, forcing King to make throws on a talented secondary. Offensively for the Phoenix, watch for TJ Thomas Jr. to continue his strong season. He’s already rushed for 294 yards and two touchdowns through three games.
Coming off of an emotional loss, I can see ETSU getting out to a slow start. Can the Bucs match the energy they played with against No. 2 NDSU compared to unranked Elon? Is their tank on empty, physically and emotionally?
The Phoenix will build an early two-score lead and then hang on in the second half for the W. Had they been able to finish promising drives last week, Elon could be 2-1 right now instead of 1-2. Expect a cleaner performance this week.
Prediction: Elon 28-24
More FCS Predictions
Towson at No. 2 NDSU
A more intriguing game than anticipated after NDSU barely beat ETSU last week while Towson should have beaten No. 5 Villanova if not for two missed field goals late in the game. The Bison defense has had issues in two of the first three games, and Towson could pose some problems. But a motivated NDSU squad at home should get a win on Saturday.
Prediction: NDSU 35-17
Furman at No. 12 William & Mary
Another good CAA-SoCon matchup. W&M looks to get back to where it was in 2022, and that’s the quarterfinals. Furman is coming off of a 2023 quarterfinal run with plenty of departures to replace. The Paladins haven’t looked the part with their 1-2 start, losing at FBS Ole Miss and then suffering a tough-looking 24-20 loss vs. Charleston Southern. They rebounded last week to beat Stetson 48-7. W&M has looked solid, starting 2-1 with an FBS loss to Coastal Carolina and beating two SoCon teams, VMI 41-7 and Wofford 28-21.
Prediction: W&M 31-17
No. 1 SDSU at Southeastern Louisiana
There was plenty to poke at in SDSU’s 24-3 win over D2 Augustana. The Jackrabbits eye a complete performance over a proud SLU program that is typically in the playoff hunt. SDSU’s run defense looks stout, and SLU hasn’t looked too comfortable throwing the ball.
Prediction: SDSU 31-14
Northern Arizona at No. 15 UIW
UIW is on a two-game losing streak, but it pushed two Top 10 teams at SDSU and SIU. NAU has looked solid so far, playing FBS No. 20 Arizona tough in a 22-10 loss and then beating up on Lincoln and Utah Tech. Expect a tight ball game here, but UIW gets back in the win column.
Prediction: UIW 28-21
