Every week of the 2019 FCS season, Sam Herder will give his Top 15 favorites to win the national championship. This is mostly similar to my STATS Top 25 Poll except that it won't include any Ivy League and HBCU teams.
It's also a bit different because in most polls if a team loses, they drop some spots. In this ranking, that may not always be the case as this is a look ahead to who has the best chance to win it all in January. The beauty of the FCS is one loss doesn't derail the hope of hoisting that trophy in Frisco, Texas.
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This is a big-picture look at the national scene and doesn't worry as much about the week-to-week movements in a typical Top 25 poll.
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15. Sam Houston State
SHSU showed its offensive explosion again with a narrow 39-31 loss to FBS New Mexico. Sophomore QB Ty Brock looked good, throwing for 258 yards. This is an experienced team looking for a big bounce-back season.
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14. Kennesaw State
It's tough to really gauge a 59-0 win against NAIA Point University. We knew Kennesaw's defense would be good, but there's a complete overhaul offensively. Still, the Owls have had good recruiting and have the type of schedule that will give them a good shot to at least make the second round of the playoffs.
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13. Nicholls
Nicholls played without two of its best defensive players. But still, expectations were this team could have competed better than a 49-14 loss against Kansas State. At the end of the day, FBS losses can be thrown in the trash. The Colonels have another shot at an FBS win against Texas State in a few weeks. The best judgment we'll get of Nicholls is when it plays FCS teams, though.
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12. Central Arkansas
The Bears were the only FCS team to score an FBS win, beating Western Kentucky 35-28. The team needs to keep its momentum going. We've seen several times where an FCS team gets a win against the FBS and then that's the peak of their season. With a seasoned team, UCA can avoid letdowns and start the season 3-0.
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11. Northern Iowa
As my old basketball coach always told us, "don't be an almost player." Well, how do we look at an FCS team that "almost" pulls off a massive FBS upset? No doubt the Panthers looked good in a 29-26 triple-overtime loss to ranked Iowa State. They definitely had a couple of chances to win it. But UNI can be a team that competes well against good opponents and then disappoints against inferior teams. UNI did answer some questions, though, and right now looks like it'll be a factor in the playoffs again.
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10. Furman
Furman looked impressive in a 46-13 dismantling of Charleston Southern. This is a team that won a share of the SoCon title last year but did not make the playoffs. With a whole lot of starters back, the Paladins look like they're on a mission.
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9. Weber State
Weber answered a lot of my questions about its defense in a 6-0 loss to FBS San Diego State. The offense still needs to find itself. The rushing attack gained just 35 yards on 19 attempts and the passing game didn't look threatening. The Wildcats still have nonconference games against FBS Nevada and UNI. We'll continue to get a better feel for this team as more games are played.
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8. Illinois State
Another "almost" FBS win. The final score was 24-10 but Northern Illinois got a pick-6 with 2:31 to play. This is another veteran team with high expectations. The talent is there to make a serious playoff run.
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7. Towson
The Tigers got a huge 28-21 win against The Citadel, a team in our preseason Top 25 poll. That's a quality victory for a team facing some questions heading into this season.
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6. Maine
We know what Maine's defense can do. But it was the offense that stole the show in a 42-14 win against Sacred Heart. Chris Ferguson threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns. The Black Bears do have some doubters who don't think they can repeat last season's success. With a lot of starters coming back, they're out to prove otherwise.
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5. South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits had every reason to defeat the Big Ten's Minnesota. But mistakes cost them in a 28-21 loss. SDSU's offensive line, offensive weapons and the front seven on defense looked impressive. Redshirt freshman J'Bore Gibbs had some bad plays, but overall showed enough to have optimism about his abilities.
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4. Eastern Washington
EWU lost 47-14 to FBS Washington in a game that shouldn't be overly analyzed. Unfortunately neither should EWU's next game against non-D1 Lindenwood. The first good test is in a couple of weeks at Jacksonville State, although the Gamecocks looked rough in Week 1. The Eagles are loaded with talent and we trust that even with less-than-ideal opponents to start the season.
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3. UC Davis
The Aggies lost 27-13 against FBS Cal in a game that saw them take a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and a 13-13 tie in the third quarter. UC Davis needs to improve its rushing defense after allowing 233 yards on the ground. But it's not like there are more Pac-12 opponents on the schedule. The Aggies will have one of the most explosive offenses against FCS opponents and the defense has good talent to work with.
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2. North Dakota State
A 57-10 win against non-scholarship Butler was what everyone expected. So we don't want to overreact here. But the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Trey Lance should catch everyone's attention. He made some throws and reads that not many FCS quarterbacks make. And his running ability looks like it'll be just as good as Easton Stick's. The opponents toughen up from here on out in a big way. Let's see how this young team plays in a tight ball game when the stakes are higher.
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1. James Madison
JMU's defense looks like a force, allowing just 34 yards rushing on 24 attempts in a 20-13 loss to FBS West Virginia. The Dukes competed well and had chances to win, but some mistakes were too much to overcome. All eyes are on the play of QB Ben DiNucci. For most of the game, he was fine. His one interception was costly as he finished 13-20 passing for 156 yards. The offensive line paved the way for 172 yards rushing but also allowed four sacks. There are still things that need to be fixed, but the Dukes were right there with a Power 5 opponent to open the season.
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