Every week of the 2019 FCS season, Sam Herder will give his Top 15 favorites to win the national championship. This is somewhat similar to my STATS Top 25 Poll except that it won't include any Ivy League and HBCU teams.
It's also a bit different because in most polls if a team loses, they drop some spots. In this ranking, that may not always be the case as this is a look ahead to who has the best chance to win it all in January. The beauty of the FCS is one loss doesn't derail the hope of hoisting that trophy in Frisco, Texas.
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This is a big-picture look at the national scene and doesn't worry as much about the week-to-week movements in a typical Top 25 poll.
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15. Southeastern Louisiana
Last week's ranking: Unranked
How is SE Louisiana behind a JSU team it throttled a couple of weeks ago? Well, remember, this is a big-picture look at things and doesn't worry about the typical week-to-week movements of a Top 25 poll. If JSU and SE Louisiana played next week, I believe the Gamecocks would win because they look like a completely different team now. At the same time, the Lions looked strong in a competitive 40-29 loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. This team looks like it's good enough to make the playoffs and win a first-round game. But to me, JSU has a better chance to run the table and earn a seed while SE Louisiana probably has to play in the opening round.
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14. Montana State
Last week's ranking: 9
People shouldn't be too quick to poke holes in MSU's 23-14 win against Western Illinois. The Bobcats didn't have the cleanest game and still won by two scores in a tough place to play. Look through the schedules of NDSU's and JMU's championship seasons and you'll find some close games that shouldn't have been close. I'm nowhere near saying the Bobcats are winning a natty this year. My point is "off" weeks happen. Sure, they didn't look all that impressive against WIU. That doesn't necessarily reflect on the overall quality of team the Bobcats have in 2019. And big picture-wise … Montana State will be in the playoff seed discussion entering November if it wins these games it's favored to win.
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13. Maine
Last week's ranking: 6
The Black Bears took one on the chin at home, losing 45-23 to Towson. Maine still is good enough to make the playoffs and get a first-round win. But a loss like that makes you wonder if a trip to the quarterfinals and beyond is likely.
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12. Central Arkansas
Last week's ranking: 13
After beating an FBS opponent to start the season, the Bears have scrapped their way to a couple of close wins. While they are 3-0, let's be realistic … you have to beat Austin Peay better than 24-16 or Abilene Christian 31-30 if you want to be looked at as a serious national title contender. For right now, UCA looks like a second-round type of team with the potential to reach the quarterfinals.
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11. Eastern Washington
Last week's ranking: 3
Until it stops being softer than baby poop, EWU's defense is going to prevent the team from making a deep playoff run. Now it's a unit that has several new starters, so there is plenty of room for growth. But its last two showings were ugly. And the Eagles lost their best chance at a resume-booster with the 49-45 loss to JSU. The only quality win opportunities left on the schedule now is maybe UND and maybe Montana.
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10. Jacksonville State
Last week's ranking: Unranked
We said it after JSU's head-scratching loss to SE Louisiana to start the season: All the Gamecocks have to do is beat highly-ranked EWU and people will forget all about it. That's what happened as the Gamecocks mounted a huge comeback to win 49-45. Consistency is still a concern for JSU. So is the defense. But the Gamecocks certainly have a shot to win out and earn a seed. But I'm not going to label this team a legit national title contender just yet.
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9. Northern Iowa
Last week's ranking: 12
The more I watch the Panthers, the more I like them. After a bye week, they need to carry some nice momentum into two Big Sky games against Idaho State and Weber State. The UNI defense is always solid and that appears to be continuing. The weapons on offense are terrific. And new starting QB Will McElvain is a playmaker and has thrown for 490 yards, four TDs and zero interceptions with a completion percentage of 62.7 in two games.
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8. Furman
Last week's ranking: 11
Furman has to have the most frustrating 1-2 start to the season. After beating up on Charleston Southern, the Paladins have lost two FBS games: 48-42 to Georgia State and 24-17 to Virginia Tech They had 20-3 and 14-3 first-half leads at one point in both games. Furman looks like the team to beat in the SoCon right now. It just needs to start getting wins under its belt as the conference schedule begins Saturday.
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7. Illinois State
Last week's ranking: 8
It still is unknown just how good the Redbirds are. They were within a touchdown of Northern Illinois before throwing a late pick-six. Then they handled two below-average FCS opponents in Morehead State and Eastern Illinois. This week it's a decent team against Northern Arizona and after a bye week, Illinois State hosts NDSU. We'll get to see if the Redbirds live up to the hype in the coming weeks.
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6. Weber State
Last week's ranking: 10
Weber has two 6-point losses to FBS opponents and a blowout win against an OK Cal Poly team. We know this: The defense remains one of the best units in the FCS despite losing a ton of standout players from last year. It's still unknown what the offense can do against a good FCS opponent. It scored 41 points against Cal Poly, but zero against San Diego State and 13 against Nevada. The Wildcats have a bye this week, but we'll learn a lot about this team next week when it hosts UNI.
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5. South Dakota State
Last week's ranking: 5
SDSU is in a bit of a weird place right now. The Jackrabbits have won their last two games by scores of 38-3 and 38-10, but it seems their best performance came in a 28-21 loss to Minnesota. The defense is looking strong this year. But with a backup quarterback in these last two games, the offense just hasn't hit its stride yet. With J'Bore Gibbs set to be back any week now, SDSU should get going again. Plus, when you win games with those scores above and it's a bit underwhelming, that tells you what the expectations are for this team.
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4. UC Davis
Last week's ranking: 4
We'll get a better feel for the Aggies when they travel to NDSU this week. Was the narrow win against San Diego last week just one of those "down" games where you're just happy to escape with a win? Because (and no offense to a quality USD team) if you almost lose to the Toreros, there are serious questions on how far you can go in the playoffs. USD is good, but not that good. UC Davis did look back to normal in a 41-13 win against Lehigh on Saturday. But the true test is how it stacks up to the Bison.
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3. Towson
Last week's ranking: 7
What a statement win for the Tigers. They scored 45 points on the road against one of the better defenses in the FCS, Maine. This team is tremendous on offense, has the best special teams play in the FCS and the defense looks improved. Towson is legit and focused.
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2. North Dakota State
Last week's ranking: 2
The Bison dominated Delaware and the final score of 47-22 was much more decisive when you look at the stat sheet. The Blue Hens were ranked No. 18 in the STATS poll, but my personal opinion is they aren't a Top 25 team this year. Nonetheless, it was an impressive showing for NDSU. If the Bison win decisively against UC Davis this week, they'll likely jump the Dukes.
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1. James Madison
Last week's ranking: 1
Ben DiNucci showed just how good he can be when he's feeling it. Granted Morgan State is not a good opponent, but some of the passes DiNucci made in the 63-12 win were special. We'll see just how good this Dukes team is with three straight road games against quality teams: Chattanooga, Elon and Stony Brook.
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