Every week of the 2019 FCS season, Sam Herder will give his Top 15 favorites to win the national championship. This is somewhat different than my STATS Top 25 Poll in that it obviously won't include any Ivy League and HBCU teams.
It's also different because in most polls if a team loses, they drop some spots. In this ranking, that may not always be the case as this is a look ahead to who has the best chance to win it all in January. The beauty of the FCS is one loss doesn't derail the hope of hoisting that trophy in Frisco, Texas.
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15. Furman
Eight starters are back on offense, including all five linemen, the top two rushers and No. 1 receiver. The defense has some star power returning to go from an average defense to a good defense. People forget Furman won a share of the SoCon title at 6-2 but was left out of the playoffs. This team is looking good to contend for a conference title again.
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14. Elon
Even with a new-look coaching staff, the pieces are there for Elon to continue its winning ways. If the team can avoid the injury bug, it's shown it can beat top teams in the CAA, which means you can compete nationally. Davis Cheek is a helluva quarterback and the Phoenix play a good brand of football built for late-season success.
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13. Weber State
Gone from last year's standout defense are six First Team All-Conference players. The offense does have a majority of its starters back, led by 2018 FCS Freshman of the Year Josh Davis at running back. But that unit does need to get more explosive. Weber State has won back-to-back Big Sky titles with two trips to the quarterfinals. The Wildcats have shown the ability to reload. This is the biggest reloading task yet.
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12. Montana State
The Bobcats are one position away from making some serious noise in the playoffs. But it's the last position you want a question mark by. And that's quarterback. Six-foot-6 redshirt freshman Casey Bauman won the starting job. He has the weapons along with a strong offensive line and defense as support. If he can be steady behind center, Montana State has the tools to advance further than its second-round appearance last year.
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11. Illinois State
Whether the Redbirds deserve this type of preseason hype is debatable. But it is hard to ignore the talent. Running back James Robinson is the top pro prospect in the FCS and he has an experienced offensive line and solid quarterback play with Brady Davis. The defense is always strong (ranked No. 10 in scoring last year) and has another big-time pro prospect in safety Luther Kirk. Something tells me this is the season Illinois State soars over that hump.
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10. Towson
While the Tigers' first-round loss to Duquesne is a head-scratcher (not necessarily the loss but the 31-10 score at home), don't let it distract you from what this team did in the regular season. The offense was electric and the special teams unit was among the best in the FCS. With most of its offensive and defensive production coming back, along with the lesson of what happened in the opening round, Towson looks dangerous in 2019.
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9. Nicholls
Nicholls has the quarterback (Chase Fourcade) and the defensive standouts (Allen Pittman, Khristian Mims, Evan Veron and Sully Laiche) back to be the Southland Conference favorites again. But the Colonels do need new players to step up on the offensive and defensive lines if they want to make a deep playoff run. This program does pride itself on running the football and stopping the run, so expect those two units to be strong again.
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8. Wofford
Wofford has hovered around being a second-round to a quarterfinal team. But it's never made a real threat to advance much further in recent seasons. The 2019 squad has a chance to break through, though. For starters, all five offensive linemen are back in a triple-option offense. Add in starting quarterback Joe Newman and the offense is looking strong. However, there are several holes to fill on defense if the Terriers want to take that next step.
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7. Jacksonville State
JSU gets a lot of national love. I didn't buy the hype and the inflated record in previous seasons, but I am in 2019. This looks like the most talented team since the 2015 squad that made the national title game. The offensive weapons are as good as it gets in the FCS and the defense has next-level talent. If quarterback Zerrick Cooper — who was already pretty dang good last year in his first season with the program after transferring from Clemson — can get more consistent and the offensive and defensive lines have players step into bigger roles, this team can get over its playoff slump.
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6. Maine
Even with some changes to its coaching staff, Maine has a good chunk of its team back that advanced to last year's semifinal. The offense does need to get more explosive, and it should with quarterback Chris Ferguson and play-making wide receiver Earnest Edwards back along with four starting o-linemen. And the standout defense could be even better with HERO Sports Preseason All-Americans Manny Patterson (DB), Deshawn Stevens (LB) and Kayon Whitaker (DL).
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5. South Dakota State
This is the most talented roster from top to bottom the Jackrabbits have ever had. But like a lot of teams in the MVFC and the FCS, they have some uncertainty on how the quarterback play will be. There are also some holes to fill on the offensive line and in the secondary. But standout players remain in all three phases of the game. SDSU has five players on our preseason All-American teams. The defense needs to take another step forward but is always good overall. The running back room is loaded. And all the pass catchers are back. But none of that matters if there are struggles at quarterback.
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4. Eastern Washington
EWU has a top offensive player in the FCS at quarterback in Eric Barriere, four offensive linemen with starting experience and three returning running backs who combined for 1,521 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns last year. Like they do every year, expect new weapons to emerge on the outside. And while the defense only returns four full-time starters, several other players saw 1-2 starts or significant playing time in last year's run to the national title game. The Eagles look primed to grab a No. 1 or 2 playoff seed.
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3. UC Davis
Jake Maier is arguably the best quarterback in the FCS and he has nine of his top 10 pass-catchers coming back to replace the numbers of Keelan Doss, who's now in the NFL. The running game looks to be strong as well with the No. 1 and 2 rushers back along with four starters on the offensive line. What the Aggies need to do to step into that next tier is get stronger on defense. That unit has seven players returning that started at least five games last year, which ended with a narrow loss to EWU in the quarterfinals.
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2. North Dakota State
NDSU is NDSU. So even with seven starters back on offense and defense and a new-look coaching staff, the Bison have the recruiting, development and culture to remain in the title hunt. The defense has all the talent — young and old — to remain a top unit in the FCS. The same can be said for the offensive line and running back room. The No. 1 question is how well redshirt freshman quarterback Trey Lance and his young cast of wide receivers perform. The Bison have ridden their defense and running game to national titles before. But a passing attack that lacked explosiveness has cost NDSU a trip to Frisco as well. No other program in the FCS could have the number of losses the Bison do and still be considered a strong national title threat. So if a No. 2 ranking here is looked at as a slight … there's your sign of just how well things are going in Fargo.
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1. James Madison
There are very few question marks surrounding this team that returns just about every starter. They are big questions no doubt, but should be answered in a positive way. Ben DiNucci as the starter after last year's turnover struggles? If he plays like he did for a good chunk of last season (he was a Third Team All-CAA selection) and makes better decisions (he is a seasoned fifth-year senior), DiNucci should be just fine. An underperforming offensive line? All five starters are back and should see a massive improvement. A new coaching staff? Head coach Curt Cignetti built Elon into a winner and formed a tremendous staff at JMU, including plucking defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman from Maine, where he guided one of the best defenses in the FCS last year. This Dukes team is loaded with talent. The defense has all the ability to be the best in the FCS. And the offense has All-Conference type players all over the starting lineup.
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NEXT: Every FCS vs. FBS Game in 2019
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