Every week of action in the FCS shapes the playoff picture. While coaches and players will give you the cliche answer of wanting to compete for a conference championship, the long-term goal is always to set yourself up for a playoff seed or a playoff bid.
As more games are played and conference foes eat each other up, the 24-team bracket is going to change. But our FCS staff of Brian McLaughlin, Chase Kiddy and Sam Herder are going to make weekly predictions on what they think the playoff field is going to look like.
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BennettRank: Ranking all 125 FCS Teams
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This is a combination of what would happen if the season ended today while also recognizing what lies ahead on each team's schedule.
The guys break down their seeds, first-round teams, the last three in and the last three left out in the table below:
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| SLOT | BRIAN | CHASE | SAM |
| 1 | NDSU | NDSU | NDSU |
| 2 | EWU | Elon | Elon |
| 3 | SDSU | EWU | EWU |
| 4 | Elon | SDSU | SDSU |
| 5 | JMU | JMU | JMU |
| 6 | Wofford | KSU | KSU |
| 7 | KSU | McNeese | UC Davis |
| 8 | UC Davis | Wofford | Towson |
| NEC | CCSU | St. Fran. | CCSU |
| PAT | Colgate | Colgate | Colgate |
| PIO | USD | USD | USD |
| Non-seed1 | JSU | UC Davis | McNeese |
| Non-seed2 | McNeese | Maine | Wofford |
| Non-seed3 | Towson | Nicholls | Rhode Isl. |
| Non-seed | ETSU | Chatt. | ETSU |
| Non-seed | Idaho St. | Ill. St. | Idaho St. |
| Non-seed | Ill. St. | JSU | Ill. St. |
| Non-seed | Maine | Mont. | JSU |
| Non-seed | Nicholls | Rhode Isl. | Maine |
| Non-seed | Rhode Isl. | S. Dak | Nicholls |
| Non-seed | UND | Stony B. | Weber |
| Last 3 in | Mo St. | Mo St. | S. Dak. |
| Last 3 in | NAU | Weber | Chatt. |
| Last 3 in | Weber | ETSU | Mont. St. |
| Bubble | |||
| 1st 3 out | S. Dak. | Towson | Mo St. |
| 1st 3 out | SHSU | Idaho St. | UND |
| 1st 3 out | Stony B. | Dela. | SHSU |
Table notes
- “1-8” – Is obviously where we think schools will fit in as seeds, based on results so far.
- “NEC, PAT AND PIO” – The automatic berths for the NEC, Patriot and Pioneer conferences.
- “Non-seed 1,2,3” – These are the best three teams not seeded, ranked 1, 2, 3.
- “Non-seed” – These are the next batch of at-large teams in alphabetical order.
- “Last 3 in” – The last three teams we think squeak in.
- “1st 3 out – The first three schools left out of the bracket.
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Brian's Thoughts:
Elon had to be ahead of James Madison this week, pure and simple. Elon's lone loss is to 5-0 FBS South Florida by 20 points in Tampa. James Madison's lone loss is to N.C. State. Elon's win over JMU was by three points on JMU's campus, truly impressive.
Also, after Eastern Washington's impressive win (again) and South Dakota State's hangover survival win at Indiana State, I slid the Eags into the No. 2 spot and held SDSU steady. The Jackrabbits won the game, but not in convincing style. All of the above forced the rest of the seeds back a spot — not because they played poorly though.
I did bump McNeese back a few spots, as its showing wasn't exactly stellar this past weekend, and I moved Towson up to where it is within striking distance of a seed.
Independent North Dakota reappears as its four-point Idaho State loss doesn't sting as much right now, and it has handled every FCS team otherwise in impressive fashion — including Sam Houston State. The South Dakota, Missouri State, Northern Arizona, Weber State love quadrangle is a mess and impossible to sort out at this point because they've all knocked each other around. I put Missouri State and Northern Arizona as the top two because they both have two impressive wins in my estimation, while South Dakota and Weber State only have one apiece … but all of this will change as we continue to pile up results.
And 5-1 Campbell? We see you, Camels. Just need a tad bit more, results-wise, before we start to slip you into this.
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Chase's Thoughts:
In an objective, merit-based playoff, Elon deserves to be the No. 2 team right now. Sorry, Eastern Washington fans, but that's the truth. The win at JMU is the best win of any FCS Football team right now, and that's supplemented by decent wins over Furman and Charleston Southern. I realize EWU is 3-0 in Big Sky play with wins over Cal Poly, Southern Utah, and Montana State, but none of those wins really do much for me. The win in Flagstaff is the top line game, but it's not topping a win in Harrisonburg.
Elsewhere, the SoCon made some moves this weekend, with Wofford jumping into seeded territory and ETSU jumping into the bracket. Enjoy your stay, Bucs, because I fully expect you to lose to The Citadel next week.
There were other major changes near the bubble, too. Rhode Island won (again) while many other teams lost, so they made a major jump up into the thick of the bracket. Missouri State lost ground after losing on the road to South Dakota, which jumps back into the bracket after a win over the Bears. The 'Yotes are just below Weber, which owns the head-to-head over USD.
Valley/CAA Watch: We're tied at five apiece this week, as the intra-conference CAA carnage is finally (but predictably) starting to chop mid-Atlantic boys up. North Dakota State, JMU, South Dakota State and Elon all remain seeded, though the order is drastically different than it was a week ago. WIU and Villanova exit the bracket. Towson (4-1) is knocking on the door, but the Tigers close with @Delaware, Maine, @Elon and JMU. Yikes.
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Sam's Thoughts:
I feel it's important to point out my playoff predictions are different than my Top 25 poll. My poll is simply who I think are the best 25 teams in the FCS in order, no matter what happened the previous week. While there's still that subjective element in my playoff predictions, I also take into account resumes (which I have a huge running database for, not to brag) a bit more. It's also important to point out these aren't November projections, it's what the field would look like today.
But ohhhh what a beautiful/sloppy/fun/headache-inducing mess this was this week. The bubble is so jam-packed. There are bubble teams who beat teams in the field, but the teams in the field still have the better resume. That's the conundrum of whether you value head-to-head or overall body of work more.
Seeds: Right now, Elon deserves to be ahead of EWU. The Phoenix are 4-0 against FCS opponents with ranked wins (at the time) against No. 21 Furman and No. 2 JMU. EWU is 4-0 against FCS foes with one ranked win against No. 18 NAU. I moved Towson into the seeds and McNeese to just outside getting a seed. Towson has a great resume: 4-0 against FCS opponents and two Top 13 ranked wins
Additions/Subtractions – A ton of moving parts after one more week of data. Idaho State moved into the field with a big win while Stony Brook moved out with a big loss and the fact that there's no room for a sixth CAA team. Montana is out with a bad loss and I moved Montana State back in. I like MSU's resume better with its two losses coming to Top 5 teams (SDSU and EWU), plus the win against WIU, who Montana lost to. Speaking of Western Illinois, the Leathernecks are out, while South Dakota gets back into my field with its win against Missouri State, who moves to the bubble. North Dakota moves into my first three teams out because its loss to Idaho State isn't as bad as it first appeared. Northern Arizona is very close to the bubble now with an impressive win against Weber, but it's hard to find room past the three I have, especially with that 40-8 loss to Mo State.
Conference Count: (Not including bubble teams) CAA – 5, Big Sky – 5, MVFC – 4, SoCon – 3, Southland – 2
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NEXT: Brian's Week 6 Recap and Thoughts
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