We're nearing the halfway point of the 2019 FCS season, which means the margin for error for playoff hopefuls is getting smaller.
The race for the 4-5 (maybe 6, but unlikely) postseason bids for the CAA is going to be a tight one. With a 12-game schedule, hitting eight Division 1 wins is key while winning seven gives you a shot, depending on who those wins come against.
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With that said, let's look at every CAA team at this point in the season and guess what percentage they have to make the 24-team bracket.
We'll do this for the Top 3 conferences that for sure have at least three bids.
Oct. 8: Big Sky
Oct. 9: CAA
Oct. 10: MVFC
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Albany
Record: 3-3 overall, 3-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Towson, vs. Rhody, vs. Maine, @ Dela, vs. UNH, @ SBU
20 percent – Albany is sitting decent right now with a 3-2 record against FCS opponents, but then again, those wins were versus Bryant, Lafayette and William & Mary. The schedule certainly toughens up from here against several teams with playoff hopes. It'll be quite the challenge for the Great Danes to find at least four wins in their last six games.
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Delaware
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Elon, vs. UNH, vs. Richmond, @ Towson, vs. Albany, vs. SBU, @ Nova
50 percent – The Blue Hens are 3-1 versus the FCS with seven games to go. The two overall losses came against NDSU and a 17-14 game against FBS Pitt. Despite losing a talented senior class with several that got a shot in the NFL, the Blue Hens are solidly in playoff contention. Delaware has a good chance to win its next three games, although Elon and New Hampshire won't be easy. Three of the final four games are the big tests against Towson, Stony Brook and Villanova, Those games will determine if the Blue Hens are back in the bracket or not. Hitting seven wins looks like a strong possibility for Delaware. Getting that eighth win is key in a 12-game schedule and knocking off one of those three teams mentioned above has to happen.
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Elon
Record: 2-4 overall, 2-3 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. Dela, @ Rhody, vs. W&M, vs. Maine, @ Towson
30 percent – Elon has two nonconference losses by one possession and that could come back to haunt the Phoenix on Selection Sunday. With deciding to play only 11 games this year and having just two FCS wins so far, the Phoenix have to win out to hit seven D1 wins. While the playoff committee will consider a six-win team, especially from a power conference, the magic number is seven this year. That means Elon has to go undefeated in a schedule that includes three currently-ranked teams: Delaware, Maine and Towson. I don't love those odds.
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James Madison
Record: 5-1 overall, 5-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 22 Stony Brook)
Remaining Games: vs. Nova, @ W&M, vs. Towson, vs. UNH, vs. Richmond, @ Rhody
90 percent – The Dukes have national championship aspirations, so something disastrous would have to happen for this team to miss the playoffs. It's not yet a 100% guarantee. JMU is 5-0 against the FCS and the remaining schedule, while it toughens up, is favorable with four of the final six games at home. It's less of a question of if the Dukes are making the playoffs at this point and more of can this team get a Top 2 seed? The Dukes will be favored to win the rest of their games, but teams like Nova and Towson coming to Bridgeforth Stadium are going to be battles. I probably don't have to remind JMU fans that their team was 4-1 and ranked No. 2 at the start of last October before weaknesses began to show. The Dukes are looking much stronger than last year's teams, but two of the next three games (Nova and Towson) will reveal how good JMU is.
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Maine
Record: 2-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. Richmond, @ Liberty, vs. W&M, @ Albany, @ Elon, vs. Rhody, @ UNH
60 percent – Coming off of a semifinal appearance with an experienced team returning, the Black Bears have had disappointing performances against two ranked teams, Towson and Villanova. The good news is Maine has seven games to build its playoff resume, including a matchup with a below-average FBS team in Liberty. Plus, of the remaining six CAA opponents, none of them are currently ranked. Even though the Black Bears may not have a standout win, reaching eight D1 victories seems like a strong possibility and they will be in the bracket if that happens.
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New Hampshire
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ SBU, @ Dela, vs. Nova, @ JMU, @ Albany, vs. Maine
40 percent – The playoff committee likes a team that finishes strong and right now, the Wildcats are on a three-game winning streak. Keeping that going won't be easy, though, with four of the last six games on the road. Not to mention five of those opponents are ranked right now. We'll see if UNH is hot because it's been playing inferior opponents recently, or if this is a solid team that can start racking up ranked wins and move into the Top 25 itself. Five more wins and the Wildcats are in. Four more wins gets this team to 7-4. From there, it all comes down to how strong the bubble is and if the teams they defeated are still ranked and in the playoff discussion.
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Rhode Island
Record: 1-4 overall, 1-3 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ VA Tech, @ Albany, vs. Elon, vs. Merrimack, @ W&M, @ Maine, vs. JMU
20 percent – Things just haven't bounced Rhody's way this year. The Rams have lost three CAA games by eight points, three points and four points. Two of those came against currently-ranked teams (Delaware and Stony Brook). With FBS Virginia Tech, James Madison and even Maine still on the schedule, it's not looking great for Rhode Island to reach seven D1 wins.
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Richmond
Record: 2-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Maine, vs. Yale, @ Dela, vs. SBU, @ Nova, @ JMU, vs. W&M
10 percent – The positive news: The Spiders are 2-2. The negative news: The next six games feature five teams that are currently ranked and one team that has received votes (Yale). Like Rhode Island, it's not looking great for Richmond to reach seven D1 wins.
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Stony Brook
Record: 4-2 overall, 4-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. UNH, @ Nova, @ Richmond, vs. Towson, @ Dela, vs. Albany
60 percent – The Seawolves showed us something last week in an overtime loss to No. 2 JMU. Yes, while the Dukes had an uncharacteristic amount of fumbles that made this game a tight one, it was still Stony Brook defenders punching the ball out and jumping on it. So let's give that defense some credit as well. This team already has four D1 wins with six games to go. The Seawolves should feel comfortable getting into the bracket with eight wins while seven wins puts their fate in the hands of the playoff committee. They have two tough games remaining against Top 10 teams: Nova and Towson. The Richmond and Albany games are wins if they play to their potential. So that means, unless the Seawolves upset Nova or Towson, that their postseason chances come down to two playoff-hopeful opponents: New Hampshire and Delaware. Those are huge games and much-needed wins.
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Towson
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 18 Maine)
Remaining Games: vs. Albany, vs. Bucknell, @ JMU, vs. Dela, @ SBU, @ W&M, vs. Elon
75 percent – Towson is currently on a two-game losing streak that includes a tough 52-45 overtime loss to now-No. 5 Villanova and a 38-0 loss to FBS Florida, a result that's thrown out the window. Coming off of a bye week, it's time for the Tiger to get rolling again. One has to like their chances to win the next two games. Then it's on to a key three-game stretch at JMU, versus Delaware and at Stony Brook. The final two games look like wins as well. You still gotta play the games, obviously. But there are four more wins I can "pencil" in for Towson. So that's seven D1 victories right there, which would put the Tigers on the bubble. I like Towson's chances to win at least one game in that crucial three-game stretch, if not two. And hey, all three isn't impossible either. Basically, that's the long way of saying Towson's playoff positioning is looking promising.
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Villanova
Record: 6-0 overall, 6-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 2 (No. 9 Towson, No. 18 Maine)
Remaining Games: @ JMU, vs. SBU, @ UNH, vs. Richmond, vs. LIU, vs. Dela
85 percent – Nova has the most FCS wins in the country right now with six, including a couple of ranked victories. The Wildcats do get a bye week after Saturday's huge showdown at JMU. And like the Dukes, Nova is eyeing a playoff seed. Now, ending the regular-season on a slump gives the playoff committee a reason to leave a team out. If the Wildcats go 2-4 in the remaining games, the eight wins aren't a guarantee to make the bracket. I certainly don't see that kind of slump happening, but this message is for any Nova player reading this and feeling a little too comfortable with their record right now. There are several more wins coming for the Wildcats. The big one for seed positioning is this weekend.
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William & Mary
Record: 2-4 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. JMU, @ Maine, @ Elon, vs. Rhody, vs. Towson, @ Richmond
20 percent – The future looks promising for this program that last made the playoffs in 2015 before a few tough seasons. Mike London has breathed some energy into the team and that showed in last week's narrow 35-28 loss to No. 5 Villanova. The Tribe showed they can be competitive, but expecting a playoff appearance this year may be a bit too early. Especially when you look at the upcoming opponents.
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NEXT: Top 15 Favorites To Win The National Title After Week 6
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