Week 1 of the college football season is here. In the unique 2020 fall season, 15 FCS teams are playing more than 40 combined games. Most of those are against FBS opponents.
There are four FCS vs. FBS games this week, beginning with Central Arkansas taking on UAB tonight (Thursday) at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN3.
On Saturday, Eastern Kentucky plays Marshall on ESPN, Houston Baptist faces North Texas on ESPN3 and Stephen F. Austin plays UTEP on ESPN3.
Here is how our FCS writers Brian McLaughlin and Sam Herder feel about the games and who has the best and worst chance at an upset.
Brian
Least likely to most likely
4. Eastern Kentucky (Marshall)
3. Houston Baptist (North Texas)
2. Stephen F. Austin (UTEP)
1. Central Arkansas (UAB)
All four of these FCS-FBS matchups are interesting in their own way. For instance, if Central Arkansas was taking on Stephen F. Austin’s opponent — UTEP, arguably one of the weakest FBS teams in 2019 — I’d predict a straight-up UCA win.
Central Arkansas knocked off a 9-win, bowl-winning Western Kentucky team last year. This year’s Bears team is almost completely intact from the Southland co-champ team of 2019 and got a win under its belt last weekend in the FCS Kickoff Classic. However, UCA’s Thursday night opponent UAB is no slouch Group of Five opponent either. While I think UCA has the best FCS chance of a win this week, it’s hardly a guarantee.
Two things make Stephen F. Austin interesting to me … the UTEP matchup mentioned above, and the fact this program has had two impressive recruiting classes in a row and it just feels like this program is ready for a signature win. I don’t know why, but this one feels ripe for an upset. Call it a hunch.
Houston Baptist nearly beat an FBS team last year (UTEP, mentioned above) and has the offensive firepower to make things very interesting this weekend against North Texas. Look for a shootout, and for HBU to be competitive.
Eastern Kentucky’s on the flip side. I have the Colonels fourth not because they don’t have some solid personnel returning from a 7-win team, but because Marshall — their opponent — is pretty stout and won eight games and made a bowl appearance last year.
Sam
Least likely to most likely
4. Eastern Kentucky (Marshall)
3. Central Arkansas (UAB)
2. Stephen F. Austin (UTEP)
1. Houston Baptist (North Texas)
As Brian mentioned, EKU has plenty of returning experience off back-to-back seven-win seasons. But Marshall is a good squad that finished 8-5 last year and returns 78 percent of its offensive production and 63 percent of its defensive production. While I think it’ll be competitive, I have the least amount of confidence in this being an FCS upset.
I differ than B-Mac with UCA. The Bears are coming off of an emotional win just five days ago and are probably a bit sore considering that was their first game after an interrupted offseason of workouts. UCA’s Week 0 game was in Montgomery, Alabama, so the Bears haven’t left the state and have been sleeping, working out and practicing away from home this whole week. UAB had a solid 9-5 season last year and returns 82 percent of its offensive production and 80 percent of its defensive production. I don’t see this one going UCA’s way.
SFA is building something special. The Lumberjacks may need a couple of more years to truly make big-time noise in the FCS, but they have an opportunity to build their brand as one of the few FCS teams pursuing a full fall schedule. UTEP went just 1-11 last year and returns only 39 percent of its offensive production and 44 percent of its defensive production. Keep an eye on this one.
I think Houston Baptist can get a W here. Expect a lot of points, and expect QB Bailey Zappe to shine. HBU made big strides last year and I think that’ll continue for the Huskies. North Texas finished 4-8 last year and returns 41 percent of its offensive production and half of its defensive production.
