Michigan State throttled Penn State, 55-16, on Nov. 28, 2015, giving the seven-win Nittany Lions a third straight season with fewer than eight wins. The program was just two years removed from the sexual abuse scandal, but back-to-back seven-win seasons, a 6-10 Big Ten record, losses to Temple and Illinois, and annihilations at the hands of the Big Ten's elite, were met with grumbles in a very Un-Happy Valley.
The grumbles were directed at second-year head coach James Franklin, who just four years prior was a little-known Maryland assistant and was struggling to build on the incredible post-scandal work done by Bill O'Brien.
One day after the Michigan State loss, Franklin fired offensive coordinator John Donovan and, two weeks later, hired Fordham head coach Joe Moorhead. Two years and back-to-back 11-win seasons led by one of the nation's best offenses later, Moorhead is Mississippi State head coach and James Franklin is getting paid a lot of money.
"I don't think James Franklin has a job at Penn State right now if not for Joe Moorhead . . . I firmly believe he's the reason that team really turned it around and James Franklin putting his faith in Joe Moorhead," Saturday Down South's Connor O'Gara said on The Hot Route in August.
“I think if Joe Moorhead hadn’t coached at Penn State, James Franklin wouldn’t still be the head coach at Penn State. He saved James Franklin’s job," ESPN's Mark Schlabach said earlier this year.
Moorhead's arrival in December 2015 did not save Franklin's job at that moment (and, for what it's worth, Penn State athletics director Sandy Barbour said the following September that Franklin "is not on any hot seat"). There was no ultimatum in place; if Franklin didn't hire Moorhead, he wasn't getting fired immediately. Therefore, at the earliest, Penn State would've had a new head coach for the 2017 season.
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First, if Franklin was fired after the 2016 season, who would've been his replacement? Let's speculate.
Had Franklin been fired three years into a six-year, $25.5-million contract, Penn State would've owed him more than $12 million. Penn State has money but that's a lot of money, which may have restricted their candidate pool, especially since they already paid Vanderbilt $1.5 million for Franklin's buyout in 2014 and they could pay a buyout (or a portion of the buyout) for a new head coach.
Would the numbers have prevented them from pursuing first-year Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente? Fuente's original deal included a $7-million buyout if he left before Dec. 15, 2016, and a $6-million buyout if he left before Dec. 15, 2017. What about Tom Herman, whom Texas gave a five-year, $28.75-million deal in late 2016? Texas also paid $2.5-million to Houston for Herman's buyout.
Chip Kelly, who was fired as San Francisco 49ers' head coach on Jan. 2, 2017, could've been in play, as could've Dan Mullen, Matt Rhule, Kyle Whittingham, Mike Gundy or Bryan Harsin. Would they have reached for P.J. Fleck after Western Michigan's incredible season? Unlikely. Same goes for first-year Big Ten coaches Chris Ash and D.J Durkin.
Prediction: Mike Gundy.
Gundy has flirted with other jobs several times, is a proven commodity, had a reasonable buyout at the time ($3 million) and wouldn't have commanded a gigantic deal.
Second, if Franklin was fired after the 2017 season, who would've been his replacement?
Gundy is still an option. He flirted with both Florida and Tennessee last year before proclaiming himself a "Cowboy for life," but let's pick someone different.
Kelly, Fuente, Mullen, Whittingham, Harsin and Rhule could've also been in play, along with Scott Frost, Chad Morris and Dave Doeren.
The same financial concerns exist for Fuente and the other big names. James Franklin signed a new six-year deal in 2017 worth $5.74 million per year, but the post-2017 buyout was only $2 million. One note, for what's it worth: If Penn State didn't win 11 games in 2016, Franklin probably doesn't sign a new contract.
Prediction: Jeff Brohm.
With all due respect to Brohm, Penn State could've done better than a guy with four years of coaching experience, only one of which came at a Power Five school, where he went 6-6 in the regular season. And the hire would've been met with displeasure, especially if Penn State was forced to pay Brohm's $5-million buyout at Purdue.
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There might've been a bidding war for Dan Mullen, but Florida would've won. Same goes for Scott Frost and Nebraska (and maybe Chip Kelly and UCLA). The lure of Brohm's offense — and surprisingly good defense in his first season at Purdue– might've enticed Penn State enough to roll the dice.
James Franklin was not fired after the 2016 season, nor was he fired after the 2017 season. And entering Week 4 of the 2018 season, he has Penn State undefeated and searching for a third straight 11-win season and their second Big Ten title since 2016. If Joe Moorhead did save Franklin's job, it wouldn't be the first time in college football.
