Ranked 127th in the HERO Sports Preseason College Football Rankings (and dead last among Mountain West teams), New Mexico, with a first-year (and first-time) head coach in Danny Gonzales and a new spread RPO offense, was fortunate to have eight spring practices before the coronavirus halted sports in mid-March. Gonzales, however, is a couple hundred practices away from turning around the program after a dreadful three-year run.
Most low- and mid-level FBS programs don't have the personnel to effectively implement a spread RPO from day one. New Mexico, even after a two-win season in which they ranked 100th or worse nationally in several offensive categories (including points per game, points per pay, and red-zone scoring), has enough personnel to shorten the learning curve…at least at quarterback and the skill positions with Tevaka Tuioti, Jordan Kress, Bryson Carroll, and others back. Seniors Teton Saltes and Kyle Stapley will ensure the offensive isn't a crippling liability but there are several holes to fill and no bankable breakout candidates to fill them.
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Danny Gonzales hit the jackpot when his former longtime boss Rocky Long returned to New Mexico as defensive coordinator. One of the most revered defensive coaches in American football, Long brings his legendary 3-3-5 scheme to a unit that couldn't generate pressure, couldn't force turnovers, and couldn't hold on third- or fourth-downs.
New Mexico has three first-time opponents on their 2020 schedule: Mississippi State, USC, and UMass, only one of whom is beatable. They'll open 1-0 with a win over Idaho State and should be aiming for a 3-2 start with back-to-back winnable games (with a bye in the middle) against New Mexico State and UMass. Even with a down season ahead for Colorado State, it's hard to see their first conference win since 2018.
Danny Gonzales was a smart hire, and the Lobos have their best staff in years, but it'll be a couple painful transition years before the Lobos get humming by 2022.
| Date | Opponent | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 29 | vs. Idaho State | Win (1-0) |
| Sept. 5 | at Mississippi State | Loss (1-1) |
| Sept. 12 | at USC | Loss (1-2) |
| Sept. 19 | at New Mexico State | Loss (1-3) |
| Oct. 3 | vs. UMass | Win (2-3) |
| Oct. 10 | at Colorado State | Loss (2-4) |
| Oct 17 | vs. Nevada | Loss (2-5) |
| Oct. 24 | at Utah State | Loss (2-6) |
| Nov. 7 | at Hawai'i | Loss (2-7) |
| Nov. 14 | vs. Boise State | Loss (2-8) |
| Nov. 21 | at Air Force | Loss (2-9) |
| Nov. 28 | vs. Wyoming | Loss (2-10) |
