It's not necessarily a good class of quarterbacks in this year's NFL Draft. There does not appear to be a surefire Top-10 pick in the group and judging by the tone of analysis pouring in from the dozens of draftniks there may not be a single QB that ultimately receives a consensus first-round grade.
That doesn't mean there won't be one or more selected in Round 1, however.
According to Todd Worly's initial player rankings, there are six quarterbacks ranked in the Top 100, which suggests a half-dozen could be selected in the first three-plus rounds.
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10. Jerod Evans — Virginia Tech
Evans has size (6-foot-2, 235 lbs), arm strength and athleticism and despite just one season of big-time college football the physical tools are apparent and the production is undeniable (63.5 %, 3,552 Yards, 29 TD, 8 INT). Some team will take a chance on Evans in the later rounds.
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9. Joshua Dobbs — Tennessee
Dobbs' strengths include poise and arm strength, and certainly can extend plays with his legs. He started 36 games for the Vols and showed leadership and pocket mobility that should give him a chance to develop in the right NFL system. Dobbs could be a late pick or one of the first QBs to sign as a non-drafted free agent.
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8. Chad Kelly — Ole Miss
Kelly's arm strength and quick feet stand out among many others in the class. He can get a bit frantic at the first sense of pressure, but as a pure passer might be one of the best in the draft. He's likely a late-round pick but off-field incidents could push him to free agency.
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7. Davis Webb — California
Webb displayed good arm strength and accuracy in his lone season at Cal but his lack of experience in pro-style formations and limited pocket presence hurt his draft stock and certainly the potential fits considering the dearth of capable offensive lines in the NFL.
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6. Nate Peterman — Pittsburgh
Peterman helped his stock at the Senior Bowl and figures to come off the board sometime in the first three rounds, perhaps as early as Round 2.
From Worly's 100:
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Peterman has a good arm, but he doesn’t have the arm strength of the quarterbacks ahead of him on this list. However, he still has the release and accuracy to become a solid starter in the NFL. He may not have the upside of some of the other quarterbacks, but for a team looking to improve its depth at quarterback with someone that’s capable of developing into a solid starter, Peterman makes a lot of sense. |
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5. Patrick Mahomes — Texas Tech
Mahomes went off for more than 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns, adding 12 more scores on the ground, torturing opposing defensive coordinators. He'll have to learn to read defenses but "he may have the best combination of arm strength and deep ball touch and accuracy in this draft class, which gives him intriguing upside," according to Worly.
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4. Brad Kaaya — Miami
Kaaya's arm and quick release will intrigue a team without an immediate need at QB and a coaching staff with a track record of developing quarterbacks — perhaps the Chiefs with Alex Smith's contract expiring after the 2018 season.
Worly notes Kaaya's need to improve on deep passes and in pocket presence before he'll be a quality NFL starter. Kaaya is more of a project than some others in this class, but comes with the upside teams prefer in such a risk.
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3. Deshaun Watson — Clemson
Watson possesses all of the intangibles NFL teams want in a QB and there's plenty of arm strength to support it. There are parts of the route tree he hasn't much experience with, however, and the decision-making is a concern for some scouts. He'll convince at least one team his focus on improving in those areas will be enough to maximize his natural gifts.
Watson comes in at No. 58 overall on the Worly 100 but there's a chance he's taken No. 1 overall and is almost certain to be a first-round selection if recent buzz holds true in April.
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2. Deshone Kizer — Notre Dame
Many believe Kizer is the top QB in the class based on a combination of his probability and the tools that suggest a big upside. Kizer is Worly's No. 39 prospect and No. 2 QB thanks to the best arm strength in the class and the top grade in athleticism, too.
Kizer's accuracy needs work, so he's not without risk, but barring disappointing Pro Day or combine results, Kizer likely comes off the board in Round 1.
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1. Mitch Trubisky — North Carolina
Trubisky lacks the track record of Watson and others but as Worly notes he "appears to have the most consistent touch and accuracy at all distances, which gives him the nod over the rest." He can run some, too, and might be the best bet to take a lot of snaps in 2017 to jump start his development.
Todd Worly is HEROSports.com's senior NFL Draft Analyst. He also serves as a scout for the CFL's Sakatchewan Roughriders and formerly held roles with the Arena Football League's Jacksonville Sharks as well as 247Sports.
Worly's analysis was used to put this list together, but these rankings are independent of the Worly 100.
