The FCS national champion will finally be decided on Sunday.
Will No. 1 seed South Dakota State complete the expected goal it has faced since last January? Or will No. 2 seed Montana pull off what would fairly be called the biggest upset in the Frisco era of the championship game?
My predictions have gone 8/8, 4/4, and 2/2 in the last three rounds. As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into this matchup and predict a score one final time this season.
Predictions Record:
2023 Record: 95-42
2019-2022 Record: 337-158
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FCS Championship Prediction
SDSU is currently a 12.5-point favorite. That seems about right, as many SDSU fans believe the Jackrabbits will win in a blowout while many Montana fans believe the Grizzlies have a legit shot at a win. It may seem too high for some FCS followers, seeing how this is a national championship game between the two best teams, it’s on a neutral field, and there are three weeks to prepare. And it may seem too low for other FCS followers, seeing how this SDSU team may be on the Mount Rushmore of FCS squads in the 2000s.
The 12.5-point spread is the third-largest in the Frisco era of the FCS national championship dating back to 2010. North Dakota State was favored by 16.5 over Eastern Washington in the 2018 season and by 13.5 over Towson in 2013.
Montana will have to play a perfect game offensively, defensively throw SDSU’s NFL-littered offense out of sync, and change the momentum on special teams through a big return, a block, a fake, or winning the field position battle.
While SDSU’s offense gets a lot of attention (WRs Jadon and Jaxon Janke, TE Zach Heins, RB Isaiah Davis, OL Garret Greenfield, and OL Mason McCormick all have a shot to sign NFL contracts this spring), SDSU’s defense is equally as impressive. Maybe not as much from a pro potential perspective, but from a domination perspective. The unit allows an absurd 9.7 points per game. That’s the best scoring defense the FCS has seen since Colgate’s 9.3 in 2018.
Montana has dudes on offense, like RB Eli Gillman, WRs Junior Bergen/Keelan White/Aaron Fontes, a physical offensive line that averages 300 pounds across the front, and a QB in Clifton McDowell who has made big plays with his arm and legs. Long-sustained drives against the Jackrabbits won’t be easy, though. Montana is going to have to connect on big plays when an opportunity is there. Missing a receiver who has a step on a defender, getting shoestring tackled with one man to beat, or not seeing an open running lane are the types of sequences that make a huge difference in championship games.
McDowell has great running ability, but he was hesitant to run on scrambles in the quarterfinals and semifinals, instead seemingly adamant on keeping his eyes downfield to find an open receiver. Sometimes that’s good, but other times you just need to use your athletic running abilities and make a play instead of throwing into traffic or taking a drive-killing sack.
The Jacks may get a heavy dose of QB design runs where Montana spreads them out in 3-WR sets and tries to get the plus-1 run game going. SDSU’s d-line will need to be strong at the point of attack to free up the talented linebackers of Adam Bock, Jason Freeman, and Isaiah Stalbird. Getting off blocks and tackling is going to be key as well, assuming Montana gets the ball out quickly to its playmaker receivers in space with blockers out front.
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A concern for Montana is McDowell hasn’t played his best games against the two toughest opponents in the quarters and semis. It’s tough to see him carving up SDSU’s defense. And it’ll be tough to scheme up getting Montana’s WRs open if the run game doesn’t get going. Montana’s offensive line is good, but can it generate a push against the No. 2 FCS rushing defense that allows 92.6 rushing yards per game?
SDSU has only allowed 20+ points twice this season, 21 to UND and Illinois State. Unless Montana gets points off a special teams return or block, the Griz getting to the mid-to-upper-20s is questionable. This is an SDSU team that has played the No. 2, No. 4, No. 12, No. 17, No. 18, and No. 24 scoring offenses. Montana is currently No. 16, averaging 32.2 points per game.
Then the question is can Montana keep SDSU, who is No. 3 in scoring with 38.4 PPG, out of the 30s?
The Griz did a phenomenal job holding down a hot NDSU offense for most of the game. But they did start to falter late in the fourth, and then NDSU scored with ease in the two overtimes. SDSU’s offensive line and running backs are a class above NDSU’s.
Montana is stout up the middle, led by Alex Gubner at defensive tackle and a core of linebackers like Braxton Hill, Tyler Flink, and Levi Janacaro with Riley Wilson being disruptive on the edge as well. They’ll have to play the games of their careers to slow down an SDSU offense that can attack you in many ways.
When the Jacks are in rhythm, they can’t be stopped. If you play base defense, Davis, Amar Johnson, and the o-line will have their way. If you load the box and emphasize taking away the run, Mark Gronowski is so good on play-action hitting the Janke twins between the linebackers and safeties or finding Heins down the seam.
Montana’s defense will have to muck this up. Win on first down and not let SDSU establish the run, get Gronowski and the o-line out of sorts with blitz-heavy pressures to force third-and-longs, and do it again on third downs by dialing up more blitzes to not let any routes develop downfield.
SDSU certainly has WR tunnel screens in its arsenal, and that may be a way to counter the heavy pressure.
Montana had thrown standout QBs off their game four games in a row:
- MSU’s Tommy Mellott: 4/13, 67 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 4 QBH
- Delaware’s Ryan O’Connor: 17/36, 197 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 4 QBH
- Furman’s Tyler Huff: 16/47, 188 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, 3 QBH
- NDSU’s Cam Miller: 9/22, 157 yds, 1 TD, 3 sacks, 3 QBH
Doing so again to Gronowski will be the toughest assignment yet.
Montana thrives in an underdog role. The Griz will bring the fight and a good game plan to the field. But SDSU is too loaded across the board. They have so much talent, featuring several guys who could be playing in the FBS or on NFL rosters right now, but they decided to come back to win one more national title. Knocking SDSU off its game on this stage is hard to envision. Both teams are looking for storybook finishes, so Montana “wanting it more” as the pesky underdog is hard to see considering the senior-laden SDSU group stuck together for this moment.
I don’t foresee a blowout similar to the last two title games. And I don’t envision a thriller like the 2019-20 NDSU-JMU game. I think it’ll be similar to the 2018-19 NDSU-EWU game, a 38-24 win for the Bison, but a little lower scoring. It’ll be a game where you never really felt like SDSU was going to lose, but Montana hung around and was always within striking distance. The Jacks hold a 10-point lead for most of the game and then seal it with a late Gronowski TD run to make it a three-score win and back-to-back titles.
Prediction: SDSU 34-17
