In the era of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed to make the CFP.
That team will need to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chances of appearing in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship.
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2025 G5 CFP Predictions
I predict USF will make the College Football Playoff as of right now. But Tulane, James Madison, and Memphis, to me, are intriguing picks as well.
The Case For USF
It’s not really hard to make this argument considering who the Bulls have beat.
The Bulls started the year with a decisive 34-7 win over Boise State, which made it to the second round of the College Football Playoff a season ago. Then USF followed that up with an 18-16 upset victory over Florida, which was ranked 13th in the AP Top 25 at the time, on the road.
USF did lose to Miami last week. But with those two previous wins, the Bulls should have a strong resume by the end of the season.
The Case For Tulane
Some doubted whether Tulane would be in the discussion for a College Football Playoff spot after star quarterback Darian Mensah went to Duke. But the outlook for the season changed when Jake Retzlaff transferred to Tulane.
He led the Green Wave to a 23-3 Power Four win over Northwestern in Week 1. He threw for 152 yards and one touchdown on 18-of-31 passing while leading the team with 113 yards and another TD on the ground. Defensively, Tulane limited Northwestern to 237 yards of total offense. Retzlaff also led the Green Wave to a win over Duke, their second P4 victory. He threw for 245 yards on 15-of-23 passing while rushing for 111 yards and four TDs.
This is a complete team. However, the Green Wave’s schedule doesn’t get easier moving forward. They take on Ole Miss before beginning conference play. But if they get yet another P4 victory, watch out.
The Case For Memphis
Memphis isn’t a favorite for many people to win the American, but neither was Army a year ago. The Tigers’ schedule is nearly perfect for a G5 team with CFP hopes.
They play a Power Four team – Arkansas – that isn’t predicted to have a winning record in 2025 at home. I could see Memphis entering conference play with a 4-0 record.
As for their league slate, the Tigers get most of their tougher games at home. They will face USF, Tulane, and Navy at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis while facing beatable teams like FAU, Tulsa, UAB, and Rice on the road. A clash against East Carolina on the road in November could prove difficult, but I could see Memphis winning that game as well.
Even if the Tigers slip up once or twice, maybe against Tulane or USF, that would still put the Tigers at 10 wins for the regular season.
The Case For James Madison
James Madison is my pick to win the Sun Belt.
The Dukes went 9-4 overall last year, ending the season with their first win in a bowl game in program history by beating Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. And yet somehow that felt like a disappointing end for JMU.
But with head coach Bob Chesney in his second year with the team, I think the Dukes will be even better in 2025. In fact, it’s possible JMU is favored in every one of its games moving forward after narrowly falling against Louisville.
Don’t get me wrong. There are some tough games on this schedule, including at Liberty and Texas State as well as games at home against Louisiana and Washington State.
But looking at the JMU roster, I think the Dukes are better than those teams.
Before Chesney was head coach, and even after he took over, JMU has been one of the top teams in the Sun Belt since it jumped up from the FCS. I think JMU is in a position to finally win a conference title as an FBS team in 2025.
2025 CFP Championship Odds For G5 Teams
There are college football betting odds for G5 teams to win the national championship. The top six squads with betting odds to win the title at BetMGM are:
- Tulane +10000
- UNLV +20000
- Boise State +25000
- Memphis +30000
- Louisiana +50000
- USF +50000
2025 College Football Championship Predictions
I predict LSU will play Penn State in the College Football Playoff championship with Penn State winning.
Right now, I think the Nittany Lions, led by quarterback Drew Allar, are the best squad in college football.
Projecting the teams to win the SEC and Big Ten is especially difficult because those two conferences are always loaded with talent. But from my perspective, LSU and Penn State are the most complete teams and would be the most prepared to make it through a daunting CFP bracket.
College Football Playoff Teams Projections
I predict Penn State, LSU, Georgia, and Texas will be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
I predict the Group of Five conference championship winner ranked the next highest will be USF, and I believe the CFP Selection Committee will rank the Bulls No. 11.
From there, I’m projecting Ohio State, Miami, Oregon, Illinois, Florida State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma will be in the CFP.
2025 CFP Games Schedule
The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, Dec. 19, and Saturday, Dec. 20. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1. The CFP semifinals will occur on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9.
In the first round, the No. 12-seeded team will play at the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to take on the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will compete at the No. 7 team.
The winner of the 5/12 matchup will play the No. 4-seeded team in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 contest will go against the top-seeded team. The victor in the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 team. And whoever is triumphant in the 7/10 bout will compete against the No. 2-seeded team.
The winners of the games involving the No. 1-seeded team and the No. 4-seeded team will square off in the semifinals, and the winner of the games involving the No. 3-seeded team and the No. 2-seeded team will also play in the semifinals.
The victor of those two contests will see each other in the national championship.
College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has yet to release any rankings and will do so for the first time on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
So if we’re going off of the current Associated Press Top 25, the teams in the CFP right now would be:
- No. 1 Ohio State
- No. 2 Penn State
- No. 3 LSU
- No. 4 Miami
- No. 5 Georgia
- No. 6 Oregon
- No. 7 Florida State
- No. 8 Texas
- No. 9 Illinois
- No. 10 Texas A&M
- No. 11 Iowa State
- No. 12 South Florida
College Football Playoff Format
The College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams, just like it did last season.
The five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS – decided by the CFP Selection Committee – will make the field, as well as the seven highest-ranked teams that didn’t win a conference title.
Unlike last year, where the four conference title winners ranked the highest earned a bye, the four highest-ranked teams will have a bye and the remaining squads will compete in the first round.
The higher seeds in those matchups will host in the first round. The top four teams with the bye will be given a bowl game, like the Sugar Bowl, and the four teams playing in the two semifinal games will also be assigned to another bowl.
Re-seeding will not occur, nor will alterations be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or contests between teams in the same conference.
