The chase for an FCS national championship begins this weekend in the first round of the 24-team bracket.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2023 Record: 76-39
2019-2022 Record: 337-158
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First Round
Drake at North Dakota State
NDSU is playing in the first round (not including the spring season) for the first time since 2010. The Bison had an argument for a seed, although they did get the easiest draw in the first round. Perhaps a “Sorry, but here you go” thing from the committee helped by regionalization.
Drake is a good Pioneer Football League team, obviously since it won the AQ, but it is a non-scholarship squad that lost 55-7 to UND and 70-7 to SDSU this season.
The Bison are playing their best football entering the postseason. The defense is getting better. And Cam Miller is vastly improved from last season, where he underwhelmed in three of the four playoff games. He’s been the dude for NDSU, graded as the top FCS QB on PFF while finishing the regular season completing 75% of his passes for 2,049 yards, 14 TDs, and four interceptions, plus 563 yards and 11 scores on the ground.
It’ll be a fascinating postseason for the Bison, an annual Frisco resident in January. Their season could very well end next week at No. 6 seed Montana State. NDSU could also very well be back in Montana in a few weeks for a semifinal matchup at No. 2 seed Montana. What won’t be fascinating is this first-round game.
Prediction: NDSU 45-7
Sacramento State at North Dakota
Neither team, frankly, carries a ton of momentum coming into the postseason. Sac State has bounced around who it likes best at QB between Kaiden Bennett and Carson Conklin. The Hornets have lost three of their last five games, including losing 31-21 at rival UC Davis last week in a game that saw a 24-7 deficit.
UND hit its peak in mid-October when it ran wild on No. 6 NDSU in a 49-24 win. Since then, the Fighting Hawks lost 27-0 at UNI, edged a struggling but competitive Indiana State team, beat a struggling Murray State team by two TDs, lost by four to No. 6 South Dakota, and edged unranked Illinois State 22-21 last week with a game-winning score in the final minute to secure a playoff bid.
Sac State’s confidence seems to have taken a hit since losing 34-7 at Montana. UND perhaps got a jolt of momentum with how it beat Illinois State.
UND bid over $100,000 to host this game, so the Hawks hope to have a good crowd behind them. The Alerus Center is a great home-field advantage.
The Hornets haven’t been great in stopping the run this year, ranking 67th with 156.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Their PFF rush defense grade is 114th. Meanwhile, UND’s run-blocking grade is No. 2 in the FCS as its o-line has played well. A healthy Gaven Ziebarth (89 carries, 604 yards, 7 TDs) is big for UND after he missed a couple of weeks. The run game and the home crowd push the Fighting Hawks to a win.
Prediction: UND 27-20
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NC Central at Richmond
A popular question on social media is how well would the top MEAC/SWAC teams do in the playoffs. Folks asked it about Jackson State last year. And folks asked it about NC Central this year.
We’ll soon find out.
NC Central was the favorite to repeat as Celebration Bowl champs and was ranked in the Top 10 nationally earlier this month. But a loss to Howard cost the Eagles the MEAC’s berth into the CB. The Eagles now look to do some damage in the FCS playoffs.
NC Central has already defeated three CAA teams this year: NC A&T, Campbell, and then-No. 25 Elon. Davius Richard looks to put on a show again as one of the best QBs in the FCS. He’s thrown for 1,915 yards, 20 TDs, and three interceptions with 579 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Latrell Collier is also a hard man to bring down, rushing for 684 yards and eight TDs.
Richmond allows 227.5 passing yards per game, which is 83rd in the FCS. Its PFF coverage grade ranks 58th. Its tackling grade is 40th, not bad, but it could be a problem when trying to slow down an explosive NC Central offense.
Prediction: NC Central 31-27
Lafayette at Delaware
Delaware’s November stumble was costly again, moving the Blue Hens from once being No. 5 in the polls to playing in the first round. They lost twice in the final three weeks to Elon and Villanova.
Lafayette comes from the Patriot League with a 9-2 record. Its offense starts with the play of RB Jamar Curtis, who has rushed 206 times for 1,333 yards and 12 TDs. The 1,333 yards are 4th in the FCS.
Delaware can get things rolling on the ground as well, led by Marcus Yarns’ 846 yards and 14 TDs. His play has been key as Delaware has gone through multiple injuries at the QB position.
This may be more evenly matched than expected for three quarters, but Delaware’s depth should help it pull away in the fourth for a two-score win.
Prediction: Delaware 35-21
Gardner-Webb at Mercer
This looks to be one of the more evenly matched games in the opening round.
Mercer is hot, entering its first FCS playoffs on a four-game winning streak. Its offense has gotten rolling after some earlier underwhelming performances, scoring 31, 45, 38, and 28 points during this win streak. Carter Peevy is an efficient QB, completing 67% of his passes for 2,087 yards, 11 TDs, and three interceptions along with 10 rushing scores. He has two dynamic weapons on the outside: Ty James (54 catches, 1,002 yards, 7 TDs) and Devron Harper (50 catches, 522 yards, 2 TDs). Harper began his career at Gardner-Webb.
Gardner-Webb is also hot, currently on a five-game winning streak. Standout RB Narii Gaither leads the offense, rushing for 684 yards so far. And Ty French is a massive problem on defense, totaling 53 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 17 QB hurries. Head coach Tre Lamb used to coach the QBs at Mercer in the late 2010s under his uncle Bobby Lamb, who was Mercer’s HC at that time.
Stopping the run is key vs. Gardner-Webb, and Mercer ranks 18th in FCS rush defense (112.1 YPG). G-W’s secondary is gettable, ranking 87th in the subdivision with 231.3 passing yards allowed per game. This leads to a home win for Mercer as James continues to raise his NFL Draft stock.
Prediction: Mercer 31-28
Chattanooga at Austin Peay
Austin Peay felt it deserved a seed and first-round bye as it rides a nine-game winning streak. But now the Govs look to go on a run anyway in a favorable pod of the bracket.
Mike DiLiello has lit it up, throwing for 3,057 yards (No. 3 in the FCS), 27 TDs, and 10 interceptions. And Jevon Jackson has been a stud on the ground, rushing for 1,189 yards and eight scores. But it was the defense that stepped up last week in a 14-12 win over a Central Arkansas team with an explosive offense, clinching the UAC’s auto-bid.
Chattanooga hasn’t won a game in nearly a month. Although that is somewhat understandable. It beat VMI 24-23 in late October before losing 17-14 vs. No. 2 Furman. Week 11 saw a bye. Then last week saw a 66-10 loss to Alabama.
The Mocs have been a bit up-and-down offensively, not helped by the season-ending injury to multi-time All-American RB Ailym Ford. Chase Artopoeus has had some electric games, like throwing for 323 yards against Samford and 399 yards against WCU. He’s also been off in other games, like throwing for 197 yards and two interceptions vs. Wofford or going 9/17 for 184 yards against VMI.
Austin Peay is playing with more consistency, and they should be playing in front of a solid home crowd.
Prediction: Austin Peay 35-28
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Nicholls at Southern Illinois
Nicholls is a balanced offense statistically, but it wants to establish the run. The Colonels pass for 207.4 YPG and rush for 162.4. RBs Collin Guggenheim (792 yards, 11 TDs), and Jaylon Spears (709 yards, 6 TDs) spearhead the unit behind a physical o-line.
But the first-round matchup is not a good draw.
SIU is sixth in FCS rushing defense, allowing only 94.5 yards per game. Its PFF rush defense grade is 10th, and its tackling grade is third. Moving the ball on the ground vs. the Salukis is just not easy.
Expect a lower-scoring game as SIU can sometimes lack explosiveness on offense. And Nicholls is fine defensively, allowing 24.6 PPG to rank 45th in the FCS. But SIU’s run defense and home-field advantage give the Salukis the edge.
Prediction: SIU 24-17
Duquesne at Youngstown State
After weeks of wondering if YSU will end up on the right or wrong side of the playoff bubble, the Penguins are in the bracket. Not only that, but they got a favorable draw vs. Duquesne. The NEC hasn’t won a playoff game since 2018 when Duquesne beat Towson.
These two met last year, a 31-14 YSU win, and they’ll square off again next fall. Duquesne has played one playoff team earlier this season, losing 43-17 at Delaware.
YSU looks to overmatch Duquense in the trenches, led by the great DL duo of Chris Fitzgerald and Dylan Wudke.
Prediction: YSU 38-21
