The stakes are massive this weekend as everyone is wondering if my undefeated second-round and quarterfinal predictions streak continues in the semifinals. Folks are also wondering who will be squaring off in the FCS national championship game.
We’ll find out this weekend.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2023 Record: 93-42
2019-2022 Record: 337-158
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Semifinals
#5 seed UAlbany at #1 seed SDSU
There are ups and downs in a college football season. There are also ups and downs and ebbs and flows throughout the playoff bracket for teams making a deep run. You can look dominant one week, and the next week you look vulnerable. And vice versa.
Sometimes, we overreact to how a team looks one week in the bracket.
SDSU wasn’t overly impressive in last year‘s quarterfinals against Holy Cross, while Montana State looked incredible vs. William & Mary. But the Jacks played much sharper in the semifinals and won decisively. In 2019, one of the most talented FCS teams of all time looked very underwhelming in a 9-3 quarterfinal win over Illinois State. People questioned how far the Bison would go beyond that point, and they went on to win the national title. James Madison barely escaped Weber State in the 2017 bracket. The next week, they hosted the best team SDSU has had up to that point. It looked like things were building toward an SDSU win, but JMU rolled.
That brings us to this week.
SDSU did not look like the juggernaut the media has made them out to be in last week’s 23-12 win over Villanova. Some watching that game may have wondered why the Jackrabbits are such a heavy favorite to win the national title. So one may also assume that UAlbany, a team that beat Villanova 31-10 earlier this year, is going to come in and give SDSU an even bigger scare.
UAlbany is a legit team. But I also think we’re going to see a complete performance and cleaner execution by SDSU in this round.
It’s going to be tough for UAlbany to bring the proper level of physicality for all four quarters to go punch for punch with SDSU. And that isn’t to say UAlbany isn’t a physical team. The Great Danes are No. 1 in FCS rushing defense (78.1 YPG). Their run defense grade on PFF is also No. 1. They average 3.57 sacks per game (1st in the FCS) and 7.0 tackles for loss per game (16th), have picked off 16 passes (5th), and allow just 17.2 points per game (6th).
But ask the 2021 SDSU squad … At some point, playoff travel catches up to you. You may not feel it in pregame warmups. You may not feel it in the first half. But your legs start to feel pretty heavy when those final two quarters hit. UAlbany traveled across the country and back last weekend, and now it has a short week traveling to the Midwest.
The Great Danes have a terrific front seven, led by star defensive linemen Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon and Buck Buchanan Award finalist linebacker Dylan Kelly. They’ll make SDSU earn everything. But how SDSU looked in the second half rolling over Villanova, I expect that level of play to continue. And I expect SDSU’s No. 1-graded FCS defense to play with an edge, perhaps irked by all the attention UAlbany’s defense is getting. Reese Poffenbarger is a stud, as are his weapons. But UAlbany’s OL is an area to exploit for SDSU. Its PFF pass-blocking grade is 90th in the FCS.
SDSU’s offense, meanwhile, is Top 6 in every single PFF offensive category, including No. 1 in overall offense and No. 1 in rushing.
SDSU is laser-focused on another national title. That’s why so many standouts returned this season when they could have transferred or pursued the NFL. Perhaps last week’s close game will serve as a reminder that the opponent has scholarships too.
SDSU turns its 10-point halftime lead into a 21-point victory.
Prediction: SDSU 38-17
NDSU at #2 seed Montana
It’ll be an epic scene in Missoula as one of, if not the best semifinal atmospheres in years.
The matchup is as juicy as it gets.
NDSU’s rise as the FCS power in the early 2010s coincided with Montana’s fall as an FCS power. The Grizzlies have slowly climbed back nationally in Bobby Hauck’s second stint as head coach. A national championship is the standard set when he returned. And when pointing out schools in the top-heavy FCS that can up their game and push their way to the top, Montana is the first program that comes to mind.
Now, the Griz have a prime opportunity to do so in front of a home crowd thirsting for this moment.
Washington-Grizzly Stadium is an elite home-field advantage. It’s going to be a factor in this game, amplifying any momentum Montana gets. This is NDSU‘s third straight road playoff game, and it hasn’t had a week off since Sept. 23.
Not only is the travel and physical toll of this season a concern for NDSU heading into this game environment, where things can unravel in a hurry for visitors. But so is the mental toll. The Bison have dealt with a lot of adversity, whether it be in the regular season as many shoveled dirt on their dynasty after some losses. Or whether it be last week when there were NIL/transfer portal rumors surrounding star players. Or whether it be this week when their head coach announced he will be leaving after the season to take a USC assistant coaching job.
But through all this, the Bison locker room appears to be extremely unified. The Matt Entz news likely won’t serve as a distraction for the Bison. But what might be a distraction is who the next head coach is going to be.
As of this writing, we do not know who that person is. And it appears on Twitter that if the new head coach is not current NDSU OC Tyler Roehl, it could cause some disarray in the current locker room. But it’s not a 2023 or 2024 decision, it’s a five-year decision for NDSU to consider. If Roehl is named the next head coach before Saturday’s kickoff, that could actually give NDSU a boost. A rallying moment, so to speak.
To add some more adversity, when asked Monday if First Team All-MVFC defensive end Dylan Hendricks would play after exiting last week’s game, Entz said he is hopeful that Hendricks will be ready to go. But he also mentioned that Hendricks and some others in the locker room were dealing with flu-like symptoms. Will that keep players out on Saturday? Probably not. But it could impact the strength and conditioning of the team if some players were on the mend early this week.
Even setting this adversity to the side, Montana still looks built to knock off the Bison.
Montana State’s quarterback run game found great success against NDSU, who has PFF’s 32nd-graded rushing defense. Montana’s QB run game looks a little different, but Clifton McDowell is a special athlete when he tucks the ball and runs. He’ll need to be cleaner throwing the ball this week, but if he can get the ball to his great trio of wide receivers (Junior Bergen, Keelan White, Aaron Fonte), they can make defenders miss on a Bison defense that ranks near the bottom of the FCS in tackling grades (No. 92).
Montana is dealing with some injuries on the left side of their starting offensive line (Liam Brown, Chris Walker), so that’s certainly an area to keep an eye on against an NDSU pass rush that is playing exceptionally well down the stretch.
Montana has one of the best rush defenses in the FCS, graded 6th on PFF and 9th statistically (97.2 YPG). That, of course, is needed to slow down the Bison. Alex Gubner is a wrecking machine at defensive tackle, and the Griz have several stout linebackers filling the gaps. But besides Gubner, Montana isn’t too big on the d-line with its three-man front. This could be a concern in defending NDSU’s downhill running game, although the Griz held up just fine against MSU’s vaunted rushing attack.
If you can stop the run, you still have to defend the Cam Miller-Eli Green connection that has been an electric factory in recent weeks.
Montana’s two starting safeties Nash Fouch and Ryder Meyer are dealing with injuries suffered last week. Their play is crucial if they can give it a go. Getting NDSU behind the sticks is key, but even then the Bison have been fantastic on third downs. If Montana’s rush defense holds strong, the secondary is going to be tested.
It’s tough to pick against NDSU on this stage. The Bison look like the Bison again. But Montana seems to be a team of destiny as well, a storybook season that is also hard to see falling short of the national championship game. Montana’s run defense, McDowell’s legs, the playmakers in space, the home crowd and noise, NDSU’s travel and consecutive weeks of playing, and the mental toll of the last couple of weeks all add up.
The Bison run out of juice in the fourth quarter, and Montana’s explosive plays and home-field advantage push the Griz over the top.
Prediction: Montana 31-30
