No. 1 seed Montana State hosts No. 4 seed South Dakota in the FCS semifinals. Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC.
What are some keys to victory for MSU and USD? We break down five for each below.
RELATED: 5 Keys To Victory For NDSU & SDSU
Montana State
Physically Match USD’s Rushing Attack
Every year since 2018, MSU’s season has been ended by either SDSU or NDSU. Montana State’s d-line and linebackers did not match up well with NDSU in the 2021 national championship. They didn’t match up well with SDSU in the 2022 semifinals. The Bobcats matched up better against NDSU in last year’s second round, but the Bison still hit some explosive run plays. For MSU to win an elusive national title, the Cats will have to beat two MVFC teams. MSU has to show they are physically stout enough to do so on the defensive side. USD’s offensive line is huge: 6-8 and 320 pounds, 6-6 and 300 pounds, 6-7 and 315 pounds, 6-3 and 310 pounds, 6-5 and 305 pounds. USD has a two-headed monster at running back. Travis Theis (1,062 yards, 18 TDs) is as physical of a runner as there is in the FCS. And Charles Pierre Jr. (1,187 yards, 15 TDs) is electric in the open field. How USD defends MSU’s rushing attack is the storyline. But how MSU physically matches up with USD’s rushing attack is just as intriguing. MSU has been playing its best defense this year, allowing 17.1 points per game (No. 7 in the FCS) and 114.4 rushing yards per game (No. 17).
Coverage
USD’s offense really gets rolling when it can establish the run and then hit on play-action throws. Aidan Bouman (2,723 yards, 19 TDs, 4 INT) can sling it, Carter Bell is an excellent route-runner with a knack for getting open, Quaron Adams is a home-run hitter averaging 31 yards per catch, and JJ Galbreath is one of the best tight ends in the country. MSU’s secondary is going to be tested.
Mellow Mellott
Tommy Mellott is as cerebral as it gets. He’s a freakishly good athlete with his speed and strength, and he has the mental makeup to be a genuine leader and a scholar student-athlete. Whether he knows it or not, he is two wins away from being one of the biggest sports legends in Montana history. And that’s no exaggeration. If Mellott can help deliver MSU an FCS championship, he will be an all-timer. And the Montana native will pour absolutely everything into this game. But he needs to be 2024 Tommy Mellott and not 2023 Tommy Mellott. He has been wound up a bit to start some games. Sometimes he throws a couple of ground balls before he gets going. In a stage like this, Mellott needs to be assertive yet cool. If he starts out erratic, the teammates will feed off of that. MSU and Mellott have done a great job protecting him this year. Now that we’re deep in the playoffs, the reins are off. But how much should they be off? Do you really want to see Mellott run the ball 12 times in the first half? It’s important for him to keep doing what he’s doing. Utilize the legs when it’s there, but be smart and don’t try to do anything extraordinary and make something out of nothing — spinning upfield and getting sandwiched between defenders, lowering a shoulder into defenders, running into the teeth of the defense. Unless a comeback is needed in the fourth quarter, Mellott needs to stay within himself and do what he’s done all season. He’s still been able to hit the home run with that style when the openings are there. In the past, he’s tried to hit a home run every play, and he doesn’t need that mindset unless MSU needs that play. USD’s defenders can thump. Even though we’re in the semifinals, Mellott doesn’t need to be taking unnecessary hits early in this game. One twisted ankle or hard fall on the right shoulder completely changes the national title complexion. MSU has too many other weapons and ways to move the ball for Mellott to feel like he can’t slide or can’t run out of bounds, or think he needs to take some contact to gain a few more yards.
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Force Turnovers
MSU has the ability to avalanche opponents in a hurry, especially at home. In what could be a tight contest where the Cats are holding a one-score lead, one turnover turned into points to make it a two-score game is massive. Once the Bobcats get a two-possession lead, it’ll be incredibly hard for any opponent to come back and win.
Connect On Explosive Plays
The Cats will get theirs on the ground. Mellott, while mentioned above that he should still protect himself, will get chunk yardage here or there. Adam Jones is the best freshman player in the FCS, coupled with the phenomenal Scottre Humphrey likely returning to the lineup. The rushing threats and o-line are too good to get shut down. But USD will offer some resistance (No. 4 in FCS scoring defense and No. 10 in rushing defense). They are stout against the run and held teams like SDSU and NDSU in check. MSU receivers or tight ends will get 1-on-1 opportunities, perhaps even getting a few steps ahead of defenders downfield as USD is reading run. The Cats need to connect on these opportunities. Dropped balls or overthrows on what should be 6 can’t be missed opportunities this deep in the bracket.
South Dakota
Ride The Momentum Wave
USD will face some adversity at different points in this game. MSU may force a turnover, pop an explosive play, or score on a kick/punt return, all while the frenzied Bozeman crowd becomes even more unglued. How the Coyotes answer will be absolutely key. They can’t flinch. There’s no time to settle in or snap out of it. Not against this talented and motivated MSU team in an environment like this. A seven-point lead can get to a 10-point lead, and then a 17-point lead, and then a 24-point lead in literally a matter of minutes. The Yotes are as veteran and steady as it gets. They came back for a monumental win over No. 1 NDSU to end the regular season, they didn’t panic and pulled away in a tighter battle than expected vs. Tarleton State in the second round, and they didn’t melt down in a turnover-riddled quarterfinal win vs. UC Davis. USD needs to handle momentum swings well on Saturday, or else they’ll fall victim like many others to the Bozeman buzzsaw.
Stop The Run
Going up against the best rushing attack (307.1 YPG) in the FCS, this one is obvious, right? The Cats can get it done on the ground in between the tackles, off tackle, with speed or physicality, on QB keepers, or even utilizing WRs on end-arounds. They can make a defense’s head spin. The Coyotes (No. 4 in FCS scoring defense and No. 10 in rushing defense) need to win at the point of attack and let the strong LB duo of Gary Bryant III and Nate Ewell be clean. Safeties Dennis Shorter and Josiah Ganues need to fill lanes in a hurry, yet have clean eyes and watch for play-action over the top. It’s the type of conflict that MSU puts you in. Mosai Newsom and Blake Holden need to hold strong in the middle, and Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes have to be disruptive off the edge. And they need to do so for all four quarters because MSU will keep coming after you on the ground. USD’s defense is as talented as any other team. The Yotes have dudes on all three levels. But there have been inconsistencies at times. They’ll need 60 minutes of their best football to fully contain MSU’s No. 1 FCS scoring offense (42.1 PPG).
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Limit Explosive Plays
Whether it’s taking a bad angle on Tommy Mellott, a safety out of position when Adam Jones or Scottre Humphrey gets to the second level, or a pass-catcher leaking wide open as the secondary reads run, MSU can strike with an explosive play at any time. While the o-line and rushing attack wants to grind you down, the Cats feast on explosive plays. USD needs to play disciplined defense.
Convert 3rd Downs
Taking the crowd out of the game by converting third downs will be massive. Whether it’s Travis Theis bullying his way on third-and-short. Or JJ Galbreath finding an opening in zone coverage on third-and-long. Or Aidan Bouman delivering a strike along the sideline or down the seam. However they do it, the Yotes need to keep the chains moving, leave MSU’s dazzling offense off the field, and drain the crowd of some energy.
Establish The Run To Set Up The Pass
As mentioned above, MSU’s rushing defense hasn’t stacked up well in some previous postseason games vs. MVFC opponents. But the Cats do look stronger this year, allowing 17.1 points per game (No. 7 in the FCS) and 114.4 rushing yards per game (No. 17). Can USD’s ginormous o-line and running back duo of Travis Theis and Charles Pierre Jr. establish the ground game? If they can, that’s when USD’s offense really gets rolling with its balance, mixing in the play-action pass and keeping the defense on its heels. It’ll be interesting to see if USD’s rushing attack can get downhill on MSU. Theis’ running style can wear a defense down. That could then leave 1-on-1 opportunities on the outside. And USD will be salivating if Carter Bell gets a 1-on-1 matchup or a defender is matched up with Quaron Adams with no help over the top. If USD can’t establish the run and is faced with several third-and-longs, MSU’s crowd noise takes over and the Bobcats can unleash their ferocious pass-rush package, led by Brody Grebe, Kenneth Eiden IV, and Zac Crews.
