The second round of the FCS playoffs had eye-opening results and performances.
Here are some scattered thoughts and takeaways from the weekend.
-Is Illinois State’s 29-28 win at #1 North Dakota State the biggest upset in FCS playoff history? If it isn’t No. 1, it has to be pretty dang close.
-The reasons for it being No. 1 are plenty. NDSU is the most dominant program this subdivision has ever seen. To lose right away in the playoffs to an unseeded team is stunning. This didn’t happen in the quarterfinals or semifinals. The Bison were a 23.5-point favorite over Illinois State. And NDSU was a massive favorite to win another national title. The Bison had -300 odds to win it all. The next highest was Montana State at +500. That is a monstrous favorite.
-Illinois State bullied NDSU’s offensive line. The Redbirds had seven TFLs and four sacks, led by Garret Steffen’s two sacks. NDSU ran for 59 yards on 27 attempts (2.2 yards per carry), and Cole Payton finished 4/12 for 101 yards and one touchdown. After his 78-yard touchdown pass to Bryce Lance on the first play, Payton threw for 23 yards.
-Payton injured his throwing hand on the costly fumble that set up Illinois State’s touchdown and game-winning 2-point conversion. He did not return for NDSU’s final drive.
-Tommy Rittenhouse was a warrior, playing hurt physically and mentally after throwing five interceptions in this game. He went 35/52 for 249 yards and three touchdowns, all going to Daniel Sobkowicz.
-Illinois State trailed 28-14 deep into the fourth quarter. NDSU’s defense held on fourth down twice in the red zone during the second half. Multiple times, it seemed like NDSU slammed the door shut on the Redbirds. But ISU’s defense kept getting stops, and the offense scored with 2:44 left, forced a fumble, and then scored with 1:00 left.
-The 2-point conversion for the win was a beautiful design.
-Hindsight is what it is, but NDSU probably should have just run the ball on the third down during its second-to-last possession, forced ISU to take a timeout, and punted it away. Instead, the Bison dropped Payton back. ISU’s pressure continued, and Jake Anderson forced a fumble and recovery to set the Redbirds up for their game-winning drive.
-The ball control was impressive for ISU, hitting so many underneath routes to slowly move the ball down the field. ISU outgained NDSU 422-179, ran 91 plays to NDSU’s 46, and had a 42:01 to 17:59 time of possession advantage.
-What a win for the Illinois State program. After nearly beating NDSU in the FCS championship game in January 2015, the Redbirds haven’t been able to get back to that top level despite several playoff appearances. In a wide-open side of the bracket, they have as good a chance as anyone to return to the title game.
FCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals TV Schedule
-More parity in the FCS playoffs is a good thing. Having bluebloods deep in the bracket isn’t the worst thing either, though, when it comes to TV numbers and attendance. We’ll see what the TV numbers do without NDSU and how the crowd in Nashville looks.
-Either Villanova, Tarleton State, Illinois State, or UC Davis will be playing for a national championship.
-For the first time since 2009, NDSU will not be playing in the quarterfinals.
-Elsewhere…
-What a statement performance by South Dakota.
-#11 South Dakota walloped #6 Mercer 47-0. It was an utterly dominating performance from the start.
-Aidan Bouman has been awesome down the stretch after a tough start to this season. On Saturday, he was 13/18 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. USD now goes to Montana. Last season, the Coyotes lost to Montana State in the semifinals. The loss didn’t sit well with Bouman, who later made a surprise announcement that he’d return for one more year. Saturday could feel like a full-circle moment for him.
-What a coaching job by first-year head coach Travis Johansen and his staff. Things could have gone downhill after an ugly start to the season. But the in-season turnaround has been very impressive. If Johansen were a finalist for the Eddie Robinson Award, he would have made my ballot.
-A lot of people are piling on Mercer and the SoCon. And some of it is deserved. It was an embarrassing performance for the school and conference. But hindsight is what it is. Mercer looked the part of a good team and looked deserving of a Top 8 seed despite its SOS. And it’s not like the SoCon has a recent history of woeful performances. Mercer made the 2024 quarterfinals and battled NDSU tough. Furman made the 2023 quarterfinals and nearly beat Montana, who went on to reach the national championship game. Some jump to assumptions based on the helmet without watching that team play. Sometimes, those assumptions end up being right (USD will beat Mercer because it’s Mercer and it’s SoCon vs. MVFC). But there are also times when those assumptions are wrong (too many people refused to believe Furman was good in 2023, or UIW could make a run in 2022, or Tarleton is good this year).
-I hear it from fans on both sides. I’ll have three 6-3 MVFC teams ranked ahead of an 8-1 southern team, for example. And fans will say it’s because of bias. Well, UND beating TN Tech, Illinois State beating Southeastern, and USD beating Mercer show it isn’t biased, that sometimes teams with worse records are better. But then there is the other side of it, where I’ll have a team with a great record from a southern conference ranked highly. And fans will say it’s because of political reasons, and that I don’t want to have all my Top 10 teams from the same two conferences. Well, there are also examples (a few listed above) of some of these teams proving they are Top 10 squads. That’s why it’s important to watch games. Because even if your opinion ends up being wrong, you can still feel educated about your opinion based on your eyes. Assuming one team is better than the other just because of the helmet is a slippery slope, even when those assumptions are sometimes right.
-Montana’s offense was fully unleashed in a 50-29 win over South Dakota State.
-It was a close game until the middle of the third quarter when the Grizzlies just avalanched the Jackrabbits. The offensive playcalling was spectacular, and the Montana players executed at a high level. Keali’i Ah Yat is a star (360 passing yards, 4 TDs), and Eli Gillman (135 yards, 2 TDs) is the best running back in the FCS.
-It’s hard to assess this SDSU season on a successful scale. By normal standards? Not good. Compared to where the program was in late December last year? Pretty good. Compared to where this team was in mid-October with an undefeated record? Not good. Compared to where this team was for most of November? Pretty good.
-#4 Tarleton State also made a statement, beating North Dakota 31-13. The question entering this matchup was whether Tarleton could match UND’s physicality. Tarleton did that and then some, holding the Fighting Hawks to 136 rushing yards and 112 passing yards while picking off Jerry Kaminski twice via Kasyus Kurns and Bam Smith.
-Offensively, Tarleton’s Victor Gabalis threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns on 15 completions. And Tylan Hines continues to light it up since returning from injury, recording 120 rushing yards.
-This side of the bracket now runs through Tarleton, who has home-field advantage after NDSU’s loss.
-#2 Montana State got into a slugfest with Yale, winning 21-13. The Bobcats held two-score leads twice in this game, but Yale hung tough. The Bulldogs scored with 2:09 to play to come within a score.
-Yale proved its team and the Ivy League belonged on this stage. Now that they have a glimpse of what it takes to make a deep run, I’m even more excited about the potential of this conference in the postseason. Certainly, Harvard’s first-round performance may make the playoff committee think harder about giving the Ivy an at-large bid. But the conference champ will be viewed differently next year as a potential Top 16 seed.
-Montana State is the odds-on favorite to win the national title after NDSU’s loss. But the Cats did not look sharp on Saturday, and some of that is due to Yale meeting their physicality. Is Saturday a sign of things to come for MSU? Or will it serve as a wake-up call? MSU’s side of the bracket is a much tougher path to Nashville.
-MSU RB Julius Davis and head coach Brent Vigen got into a weird and heated postgame exchange. The cameras were locked on it for a couple of minutes. It was jarring to see from a pretty cool customer in Vigen and a team leader in Davis. Davis later apologized online and said he was just talking to a former teammate. So Vigen may have overreacted by pulling Davis back, but was thinking the player convo could have escalated. But Davis also can’t react that way to a coach. Vigen addressed it today, saying there will be no ramifications.
-In another defensive slugfest, #12 Villanova defeated #5 Lehigh 14-7.
-I said I trusted Lehigh QB Hayden Johnson a little more to make a play with his arm. I was wrong. Pat McQuaide delivered when he needed to most, hitting Braden Reed on a 28-yard strike with 2:56 to play for the game-winning score.
-What a run so far for Nova, dominating Harvard in the first round and then going on the road to beat an undefeated Lehigh team. This will be its third quarterfinal appearance since 2021.
-Villanova will join Lehigh next year as a Patriot League member.
-In one of the more entertaining games, #7 SFA defeated #10 Abilene Christian 41-34, getting its revenge after ACU won this matchup earlier in the season.
-There were five lead changes in the second half.
-SFA QB Sam Vidlak was big-time, throwing for 357 yards and three touchdowns. Vidlak, a Montana transfer, will return to the state to take on MSU. Kylon Harris is a star, catching 11 passes for 183 yards and a score.
-#8 UC Davis stepped on the gas in the second half to defeat #9 Rhode Island 47-26. This offense can really get rolling when it’s hot. The talent, scheme, and offensive playcalling are tremendous.
-Caden Pinnick continues to deliver a spectacular freshman season, throwing for 277 yards and five touchdowns. His mobility will be key this week against a ferocious Illinois State d-line.
-The quarterfinals are set. On one side of the bracket, it’s #12 Villanova at #4 Tarleton State and Illinois State at #8 UC Davis. The other side has #7 SFA at #2 Montana State and #11 South Dakota at #3 Montana.
-It’s tough to determine which side is more intriguing. On one side, it’s wild to think that Villanova, Tarleton State, Illinois State, or UC Davis will advance to the national championship, although Tarleton was viewed as a dark horse for most of this season. Can the Texans seize this opportunity with home-field advantage? On the other side, Montana State, Montana, and USD each look like legit national title contenders. But can we assume MSU will beat SFA? Not if the Cats play like they did in the second round. The chance of a Brawl of the Wild 2.0 in the semifinals is oh-so close. The Cats and the Griz have never met in the FCS playoffs. And a potential semifinal bout would be pure insanity. But USD is good enough to prevent that from happening if the Griz aren’t as sharp as last week.
-I’ll preview and predict each quarterfinal game later this week. I went 6-2 in my first-round picks and 6-2 this last weekend, which is pretty good considering the chaos. But after this weekend’s performances, it’ll be a challenge trying to get a gauge on these matchups.
