No. 17 Boise State travels to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas tonight to face UNLV in what may be this season’s most anticipated matchup between Group of Five teams.
Boise State (6-1, 2-0 Mountain West) and UNLV (6-1, 2-0) are ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the latest HERO Sports G5 Media poll, but tonight’s game, which kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, will have ramifications that reach far beyond any rankings.
The winner will be in the driver’s seat to not only play in the Mountain West Championship game, but host it. They will also have a strong case to earn one of the College Football Playoff’s automatic berths, which go to the five highest-ranked conference champions.
A win on Friday would be a serious feather in Boise State’s cap. The Broncos are currently the highest-ranked G5 team in the AP Top 25, followed by No. 23 Army and No. 24 Navy, both of which are undefeated.
A win by UNLV would put the Rebels right into the mix of G5 teams jockeying for position in the AP poll. UNLV received five votes this week, which put the Rebels at No. 28.
Friday’s contest isn’t exactly a CFP elimination game because Boise State and UNLV could meet again in the Mountain West title game, but the loser may find itself needing Army and Navy to lose to stay in the race.
Boise State vs. UNLV Betting Line
Boise State is a 3.5-point college football betting odds favorite, and the Over/Under is 65.5 points. The game is a rematch of last season’s Mountain West Championship at Allegiant Stadium, which Boise State won 44-20. The Broncos are 7-11-2 against the spread in their past 20 games as the favorite on the road. The Rebels are 8-11-1 ATS in their past 20 games as an underdog at home.
The Jeanty Effect
The overwhelming storyline in Friday’s game will be UNLV’s defense trying to slow down Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation with 1,248 rushing yards and is tied for No. 2 in the country with 17 rushing touchdowns.
Jeanty has rushed for more than 100 yards in every game this season and eclipsed 200 yards in three. He’s averaging an FBS-leading 208 rushing yards a game, and he’s +200 to win the Heisman Trophy, according to BetMGM.
UNLV head coach Barry Odom said during his weekly press conference on Monday that he is well aware of the challenge his defense will face this week.
“(Jeanty) has great strength, body control, and leverage,” Odom said. “He’s tough, he’s fast, he’s quick, he’s strong. I don’t know, in terms of descriptive words that I’ve touched on, enough to give him the respect he deserves.”
“He’s unique, and they have a terrific scheme,” Odom continued. “He is one of the great players in college football.”
Boise State vs. UNLV Pick
I predict Boise State wins 35-31.
Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and wide receiver Ricky White have UNLV’s offense humming, and the Rebels have what may be the best defense in the Mountain West. But Jeanty is just too good. Nobody has come anywhere close to slowing him down this season. UNLV could make a big play or two on special teams and keep the game close, but I think Jeanty will put the Broncos on his back and carry them to a win.
New Mexico at Colorado State Pick
How to watch: 5 p.m. ET, Mountain West Network/Altitude Sports
Betting line: Colorado State is a 4.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 63.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Colorado State wins 21-17. The Rams will be without star wide receiver Tory Horton, who is out for the season with an injury, but I believe they’ll lean on running back Avery Morrow, who has posted four straight 100-yard rushing games, and the defense will do just enough to limit New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier’s opportunities.
Utah State at Wyoming Pick
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Wyoming is a 1.5-point underdog, and the Over/Under is 57.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Utah State wins 27-21. I believe the Aggies’ offense, led by wide receiver Jalen Royals, will do just enough to earn the win. Wyoming head coach Jay Sawvel said the Cowboys will turn to a two-quarterback system in an effort to get some life out of the offense, meaning Evan Svoboda and Kaden Anderson will both play.
San Jose State at Fresno State Pick
How to watch: 8 p.m. ET, TruTV/Max
Betting line: Fresno State is a 5.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 55.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Fresno State wins 27-24. San Jose State’s passing attack has been potent, but the Spartans have turned to quarterback Walker Eget, who is prone to turnovers in big moments. The Bulldogs have too much experience on offense not to capitalize on those mistakes.
Washington State at San Diego State Pick
How to watch: 10:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Washington State is a 14-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 56.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Washington State wins 34-24. Cougars quarterback John Mateer is coming off a five-touchdown performance against Hawaii. I think he’ll have another big day against the Aztecs, but San Diego State’s defense is good enough to keep Washington State from covering that massive spread.
Nevada at Hawaii Pick
How to watch: Midnight ET, Spectrum Sports
Betting line: Nevada is a 1.5-point underdog, and the Over/Under is 44.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Nevada wins 27-14. Hawaii has one of the top passing attacks in the Mountain West and a sneaky good defense, but I think Nevada will control the clock and keep Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager on the sideline with its dominant rushing attack. Nevada quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Savion Red have combined to rush for 534 yards and 10 touchdowns in the past three games.
