Among the Group of Five conferences, 35 teams became bowl-eligible.
Here’s a look at each bowl game that will have a G5 team and predictions for those matchups, including Liberty taking on Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.
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Fiesta Bowl Prediction
For my Fiesta Bowl prediction, I’m picking Oregon to win but for Liberty to cover the spread at +17.5. I also am predicting the game will go Over 67 total points.
By several metrics, Liberty had one of the worst schedules in the country. But the teams the Flames played are competing at the FBS level nonetheless, and Liberty consistently dominated them on both sides of the ball.
Liberty has the HERO Sports G5 Player of the Year, Kaidon Salter, and the Co-Coach of the Year, Jamey Chadwell, as well as other G5 All-Americans. Some may not believe CUSA is a strong conference, but the Flames are loaded with talent and have been consistently great.
And they don’t rely on their offense or defense to win, either. While the Flames were top five in the country in scoring offense (40.8 points per game) and total offense (514.9 yards per game), they were also among the two best teams in CUSA in scoring defense (22.7 points per game allowed) and total defense (356.5 yards per game allowed).
All of this makes me believe Oregon won’t win in a blowout. That said, the Ducks have defeated a number of nationally-ranked teams. With Oregon quarterback Bo Nix reportedly playing, I think the Dukes will score enough to avoid an upset against Liberty.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction
For my Guaranteed Rate Bowl prediction, I’m picking Kansas to win but for UNLV to cover the spread at +10.5. I also am predicting the game will go Under 68.5 total points.
I think Kansas is the better team. But I don’t think the Jayhawks are 13 points better.
I believe UNLV’s offense will prove to be talented enough to keep this game close. The Rebels are first in the Mountain West with 34.3 points per game scored and are third with 414.8 yards per game gained.
But I think Kansas will be in control for most of this matchup. The Jayhawks put together an impressive resume this season, including a win over Oklahoma and an 8-4 overall record. They’ve also limited three of their last four opponents to 21 or fewer points, so I think their defense will make critical plays on the way to a victory.
First Responder Bowl Prediction
For my First Responder Bowl prediction, I’m picking Texas State to win and cover the spread at -3.5. I also am predicting the game will go Over 59.5 total points.
I anticipate Texas State’s offense will dominate in this matchup. The Bobcats were in the top 20 in the FBS with 36 points per game scored. Even if they lose, I don’t think they’ll struggle scoring in this clash.
But I don’t expect them to lose. Even if Rice is capable of making this a high-scoring battle, the Bobcats are comfortable in those types of games.
Three of Texas State’s last four games have featured 61 or more points.
Yes, Texas State struggled a bit against Sun Belt teams after starting the year 4-1 overall. But after beating South Alabama 52-44 in their regular season finale, I believe the Bobcats will thrive in the First Responder Bowl with a few weeks of preparation.
Liberty Bowl Prediction
For my Liberty Bowl prediction, I’m picking Iowa State to win but for Memphis to cover the spread at +9.5. I also am predicting the game will go Over 57.5 total points.
The Tigers’ offense facing off with Iowa State’s defense will be the matchup to watch. The Tigers are seventh in the country in scoring offense with 39.7 points per game, and the Cyclones are 33rd in the FBS with 21.67 points per game allowed.
I think Memphis will make this become a high-scoring game, but I also believe Iowa State is playing well enough recently to be ready for that.
The Cyclones have lost just twice in their last seven outings – games against Texas and Kansas, which are both ranked. Iowa State finished the regular season with a victory over Kansas State.
I believe Memphis is a talented team and that this will be a one-possession game. But I think Iowa State is slightly better and will find a way to win.
Fenway Bowl Prediction
For my Fenway Bowl prediction, I’m picking SMU to win and cover the spread at -10. I also am predicting the game will go Over 49.5 total points.
The Mustangs were one of the most dominant G5 programs in 2023. They ranked sixth in the country in scoring offense (40.6 points per game) and 12th in scoring defense (17.38 points per game allowed).
Meanwhile, Boston College was outside of the top half in the ACC in both of those categories.
Also, the Eagles haven’t been playing particularly well in recent weeks. They’ve lost their last three contests, and their most recent victories were against Syracuse and UConn – both one-possession margins.
I also think SMU will be eager to prove it’s ready to compete in the ACC. Beating Boston College in a bowl game would certainly do that.
Military Bowl Prediction
For my Military Bowl prediction, I’m picking Tulane to win and cover the spread at +10.5. I also am predicting the game will go Under 44 total points.
Yes, missing Michael Pratt will force the Green Wave to make some adjustments. However, Tulane has already proven earlier this year it can play at a high level without Pratt when he was injured.
But offense wasn’t the main reason Tulane was successful in the first place. The Green Wave are top 20 in the FBS with 18.92 points per game allowed and are 32nd in total defense with 332.7 yards per game allowed.
Virginia Tech did win two of its last three games to earn bowl-eligibility, but the Hokies have already lost to a G5 team when Marshall beat them 24-17 earlier this season. I believe Virginia Tech plays inconsistently, and that will be problematic in this matchup against Tulane.
Arizona Bowl Prediction
For my Arizona Bowl prediction, I’m picking Wyoming to win and cover the spread at -3.5. I also am predicting the game will go Under 44.5 total points.
Without star quarterback Dequan Finn, Toledo’s offensive approach will surely be different. And even with him, Toledo scored just 14 points in a loss to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC Championship.
Wyoming has also been playing well on both sides of the ball recently. The Cowboys outscored Hawaii and Nevada 84-15 in their last two outings.
I also expect Wyoming to be motivated to play at a high level with head coach Craig Bohl retiring. I expect the Cowboys will find a way to win in his final game.
Group of Five FBS Bowl Schedule
Bowl | Day | Matchup | TV |
LA | Dec 16 | Boise St. vs. UCLA | ABC |
New Mexico | Dec 16 | NMSU vs. Fresno St. | ESPN |
Cure | Dec 16 | Miami (OH) vs. App St. | ABC |
New Orleans | Dec 16 | Jax St. vs. Louisiana | ESPN |
Famous Toastery | Dec 18 | WKU vs. ODU | ESPN |
Myrtle Beach | Dec 18 | Ga. Southern vs. Ohio | ESPN |
Frisco | Dec 19 | UTSA vs. Marshall | ESPN |
Boca Raton | Dec 21 | USF vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
Hawai’i | Dec 23 | CCU vs. SJSU | ESPN |
68 Ventures | Dec 23 | S. Alabama vs. EMU | ESPN |
Famous Idaho Potato | Dec 23 | Ga. St. vs. USU | ESPN |
Armed Forces | Dec 23 | JMU vs. Air Force | ABC |
Camellia | Dec 23 | A-State vs. NIU | ESPN |
Birmingham | Dec 23 | Troy vs. Duke | ABC |
Guaranteed Rate | Dec 26 | Kansas vs. UNLV | ESPN |
First Responder | Dec 26 | Texas St. vs. Rice | ESPN |
Quick Lane | Dec 26 | BGSU vs. Minnesota | ESPN |
Military | Dec 27 | VT vs. Tulane | ESPN |
Fenway | Dec 28 | SMU vs. BC | ESPN |
Liberty | Dec 29 | Memphis vs. Iowa St. | ESPN |
Arizona | Dec 30 | Toledo vs. Wyoming | CW Network |
Fiesta | Jan 1 | Liberty vs. Oregon | ESPN |