Plenty of shots should be going up when second-seeded Miami (OH) and first-seeded Akron meet in the MAC basketball championship tonight.
These are the top two offenses in the conference, and the shotmaking ability has been on display so far in the MAC basketball tournament. Akron is averaging 98 points in its two tournament wins including a 100-90 win over Toledo in the semifinals. The Zips defeated Bowling Green by 29 in the quarterfinals.
Miami is averaging 76.5 points in its two tourney wins, and the 3-point shooting has helped lift the RedHawks to wins over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. They knocked off Kent State in the semis behind Kam Craft’s five second-half 3-pointers. Craft has 11 triples over the two games so he’ll likely be the focal point for Akron’s defense.
Akron was the favorite entering the tourney (+135) while Miami was the third-favorite (+475). These programs met just once in the regular season with the Zips winning 102-75.
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Miami (OH) vs. Akron Odds
Akron is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Miami (OH) while the Over/Under is at 156.5 points.
The Moneyline for Miami is at +220 and -275 for Akron.
Miami (OH) vs. Akron On TV
The matchup between Miami (OH) and Akron will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Miami (OH) vs. Akron Prediction
I predict Akron covers the 6.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 156.5 points.
I think the Zips’ energy and intensity — especially on defense — are what will allow them to win this game. They don’t take any plays off, and it’s been like that all season. There’s a reason they went 17-1 in conference play.
Per KenPom, Akron has the second-best defensive adjusted efficiency in the league (103.2) and its defensive effective field-goal percentage ranks first (47.2%). They’re also the best at guarding the 3-point line, allowing conference opponents to shoot just 29.8% from the outside. Miami is the best 3-point shooting team in the MAC (39.4%).
Offensively, the Zips are the most efficient offense in the league and hardly take a bad shot. The ball is never stagnant in their offense and often gets plenty of reversals. This gets the defense moving and creates easier opportunities, along with their ability to get quality looks in transition. Akron has an effective field-goal percentage of 55.5% on the year, which is the best in the league and 29th-best in the country.
It’ll be crucial for the Zips to contain Craft and keep him from getting hot. He can knock down off-balance, contested shots, so it’ll be tough to keep him from scoring, but they can at least limit him. If he’s not knocking down 3-pointers, I don’t know if Miami has enough firepower throughout the rest of its lineup to keep up with this high-powered Akron attack. Craft leads the team with 13.7 PPG while Peter Suder averages 13.4. Suder had 23 points in the win over Kent State. Forward Eian Elmer averages 11.3 PPG.
A main reason I think the Zips win is because of the MAC Player and Defensive Player of the Year in Nate Johnson. He had a career-high 31 points against Toledo in the semis but only had three points in the quarterfinal win over BGSU. Still, he made plays in a variety of other ways. This shows not only Johnson’s ability to impact the game from every angle, but Akron’s depth. It still had six players in double-figures despite its leading scorer finishing with only three points.
Johnson averages 13.8 PPG while teammate Tavari Johnson adds 12.9. Shammah Scott has had a nice tourney for the Zips, averaging 14 PPG.
I think Nate Johnson will be tasked with guarding Craft and will keep him from doing too much damage, and I expect the Zips’ energy will be too much for Miami and they will capture their third MAC title in the last four years.
Akron is 13-12 against the spread as a favorite and Miami is 5-5 ATS as an underdog.
