The top two seeds in the Conference USA basketball tournament, Jacksonville State and Liberty, both won their semifinal games by two points to advance to the CUSA title game. It was a bit of a different victory for each, though. The Gamecocks survived while the Flames prevailed.
Top-seeded Liberty trailed Kennesaw State for nearly the entire game and by as much as 12 in the second half, but Kaden Metheny put the Flames on his back and drained five second-half 3-pointers — all in the final eight minutes — to lift Liberty to an 81-79 win. For some reason, the Owls continued to let Meheny get decent looks even when they knew he couldn’t miss. Hand down, man down.
Jax State led MTSU for nearly the entire second half and by 10 with five minutes remaining, but almost squandered the lead in the final minute. The Blue Raiders missed a pair of go-ahead free throws with 38 seconds to play while Quel’Ron House knocked down two free throws 16 seconds later to give the Gamecocks the 70-68 victory.
Liberty was the favorite at +115 to win the tourney while Jax State had the fourth-shortest odds at +800. These teams split the season series.
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Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Odds
Liberty is a 6.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Jacksonville State while the Over/Under is at 131.5 points.
The Moneyline for Jacksonville State is at +220 and at -272 for Liberty.
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty On TV
The matchup between Jacksonville State and Liberty will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction
I predict Jacksonville State wins this game. I also predict this game goes under 131.5 points.
In the CUSA tournament preview, I had Jax State knocking off Kennesaw State in the title game. I can’t pick against the Gamecocks now.
The Flames really struggled against KSU’s physicality in the semifinal. You could tell it flustered them and threw off the rhythm of their methodical offense. The Gamecocks have that same type of physicality, which won’t only disrupt the offense but could lead to a lot of fouls. The Flames’ free-throw shooting is where they struggle the most. Liberty ranks 352nd in the country in free-throw percentage (65.2%). I anticipate JSU won’t be scared to rack up a few fouls because of physical play.
It’ll also be important for the Gamecocks to keep Liberty from getting too comfortable on offense. The Flames are the most efficient team in the league and their adjusted offensive efficiency of 107.4 is the top in CUSA. They own an effective field-goal percentage of 55.8%, which also ranks first in the conference, per KenPom.
Jax State has a lot of similarities to Kennesaw State. Not only in the physicality, but the Gamecocks are the second-best rebounding team in the league, behind only KSU. Liberty isn’t a strong rebounding team, especially on the offensive glass. I think the Gamecocks win the rebounding battle, which will be one of the reasons they hang around in this game.
I also don’t think the Flames have anybody who can disrupt Jaron Pierre Jr., the CUSA Player of the Year. MTSU’s Justin Bufford created some problems for Pierre, but I don’t know if Liberty has anybody in its rotation who can have that same type of defensive impact on Pierre. His 21.7 points per game ranks third in the country. He’s the only player on the Gamecocks that averages double-figures.
CUSA Sixth-Man of the Year Taelon Peter leads the Flames with 13.8 PPG while Metheny adds 12.9. Zach Cleveland chips in with 11 PPG and 6.3 RPG for Liberty.
I think Jacksonville State has the traits needed to beat this really solid Liberty team and the Gamecocks win to get to the NCAA tournament for the third time under coach Ray Harper.
Jax State is 11-5 against the spread as an underdog and Liberty is 14-9-1 ATS as a favorite.
