No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five is usually fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games.
Louisiana vs. JMU Prediction
I predict JMU will win and cover the 18.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
I think the Dukes have been incredible on defense so far. They’re first in the Sun Belt in scoring defense and total defense with 13.6 points and 217.2 yards per game allowed. They’ve given up nearly 100 less yards than the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt, Old Dominion, which has allowed 314.2 per game.
JMU’s offense, especially against Georgia State, hasn’t been as great. But I think the Dukes can get in a rhythm in this game.
Louisiana is third-to-last in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (32.2 PPG allowed) and is 10th in total defense (401.4 YPG allowed).
I believe the stars of this game will be on JMU’s defense, like linebacker Trent Hendrick. He’s first on the team with 38 tackles and three sacks.
But I also expect the Dukes to do enough on offense to win by at least three touchdowns. I anticipate JMU’s running game, led by running back Wayne Knight, should give the Dukes enough of a spark on that side of the ball to win decisively.
Charlotte vs. Army Prediction
I predict Army wins and covers the 18.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 46.5 total points.
I don’t have much faith in the 49ers’ offense. Against four FBS opponents, they’ve scored more than 17 points just once. And that was against USF, a 54-26 loss where the 49ers scored most of their points in the fourth quarter when the game was already out of reach.
I also don’t have much faith in Charlotte’s defense. The 49ers are last in the American in total defense, allowing 466.2 yards per game, and they’re second to last in scoring defense, allowing 34.2 points per contest.
I specifically think this is a bad matchup for Charlotte because Army has one of the top rushing attacks in the country. The Black Knights average 278.4 yards per game on the ground, even if they average 4.4 yards per carry.
And Charlotte’s rushing defense hasn’t been fantastic. The 49ers allow the second-most rushing yards in the conference at 208 per game.
Army quarterback Cale Hellums ran for 81 yards and three touchdowns in the Black Knights’ last game at UAB. But no matter who sees the most carries for Army, I think the Black Knights’ offensive line will dominate up front. And I expect that should allow them to win the time-of-possession battle by a wide margin.
I anticipate Army will win the battle in the trenches on the other side of the ball, too, giving Charlotte’s offense fits. I think Army can win by three or more touchdowns, even in a lower-scoring clash.
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Prediction
I predict Toledo will win and cover the 10.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 48.5 total points.
I think Toledo’s loss against Western Michigan will prove to be one of few bad moments for the Rockets rather than a sign of things to come. They have a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball, and I expect them to show it in this matchup.
Toledo is first in the MAC in scoring offense (35.8 points per game) and total offense (442.4 yards per game). The Rockets are also leading the league in scoring defense (35.8 PPG allowed) and total defense (223.8 YPG allowed).
While Bowling Green may end up being a decent team in Eddie George’s first year as head coach, I think the Rockets are in the top tier of programs when it comes to the MAC – and the Group of Five for that matter.
Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 925 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 63% completion rate while rushing for two touchdowns. Chip Trayanum has rushed for 476 yards and six touchdowns. Junior Vandeross III leads Toledo with 380 yards and six touchdowns on 31 catches.
The Rockets have plenty of stars on offense, and I think they will shine in this game.
Navy vs. Temple Prediction
I predict Navy will win and cover the 10-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 52.5 total points.
The Midshipmen aren’t just a team that runs the ball well. They do almost everything well.
Navy is top three in the American in scoring offense (37.4 points per game), scoring defense (19.6 PPG allowed), total offense (490.4 yards per game), and total defense (329.6 YPG allowed).
And yes, they also are the top team in the country in terms of rushing offense with 317.4 yards per game.
Blake Horvath is one of the best offensive players in the country, in my opinion. The quarterback has rushed for 485 yards and six touchdowns while throwing for 839 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 72% completion rate.
But Navy also has so much talent around him. Eli Heidenreich leads the Midshipmen with 20 catches, 413 yards, and four touchdowns through the air and is third on the team with 232 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Alex Tecza has rushed for 379 yards and four touchdowns.
And on defense, Landon Robinson is one of the best defensive linemen in the G5, as he has five sacks and 28 tackles.
I know Navy hasn’t won by wide margins lately, but I think the Midshipmen will go on the road and take care of business in this matchup.
Air Force vs. UNLV Prediction
I predict UNLV will win and cover the seven-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 65.5 total points.
I really think this UNLV team is getting overlooked. I know the Rebels’ schedule isn’t the strongest on paper, but going 5-0 is a sign of a good team.
And make no mistake about it, UNLV has some standout players. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea is playing at a high level. He’s thrown for 1,042 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 70% completion rate while rushing for 261 yards and one TD. Running back Jai’Den Thomas has rushed for 489 yards and five touchdowns. Wide receiver Jaden Bradley has caught a team-high 25 passes for 420 yards and two scores.
Meanwhile, Air Force has the worst scoring defense and total defense in the Mountain West, having allowed 37.8 points and 476.6 yards per game. The Falcons have especially struggled against the pass, allowing 312.4 YPG through the air.
I expect Colandrea will have a solid performance and that UNLV’s defense will step up to the challenge at home in a win.
San Jose State vs. Wyoming Prediction
I predict San Jose State will win and cover the 1.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 49.5 total points.
I’m considering what both teams have done this season and heavily weighing what both have done the past few weeks.
San Jose State is averaging almost 32 points per game in its last three outings after scoring a combined 21 points against Central Michigan and Texas to start the year.
Wyoming, meanwhile, has allowed more than 30 points in each of its last three games after giving up just seven points to start the year. I know the Cowboys played some good teams in recent weeks, but I still don’t think things are trending in a positive direction for them.
Walker Eget and Danny Scudero have been a top-notch quarterback-wide receiver duo for San Jose State. Eget has thrown for 1,521 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions while completing 62% of his passes while Scudero has caught 40 passes for 665 yards – the most in the FBS – for four touchdowns. I think they both thrive against Wyoming.
I believed this San Jose State team would be in the mix for a Mountain West Championship appearance going into the season. And I think the Spartans are finally starting to play like the team they’re capable of being.
