No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this week.
Memphis vs. UAB Prediction
I predict that Memphis will win and cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project this game will go Over 62.5 total points.
The Tigers are simply, in my opinion, a much better team in several facets.
Memphis is top three in the American in scoring offense (40.5 points per game), scoring defense (16.2 PPG allowed), total offense (450.2 yards per game), total defense (312.7 YPG allowed), rushing offense (238.7 YPG), and rushing defense (88 YPG allowed).
Meanwhile, UAB is seventh or worse in all of those categories. In fact, the Blazers are last in the league in scoring defense and total defense.
Memphis is on the road, and UAB could play with a new energy following the coaching change. But I think the Tigers are too well coached to let this game be close.
With Brendon Lewis at quarterback, Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. at running back, and Cortez Braham Jr., Jamari Hawkins, and Marcello Bussey at wide receiver, I think Memphis’ offense will score early and often. I also expect Memphis’ defense will make things tough for UAB.
FAU vs. USF Prediction
I predict USF will win and cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 72.5 total points.
That’s a high Over/Under for anyone, but I do think USF will win by at least four touchdowns. That’s because the Bulls have already shown they don’t mess around and beat teams they’re clearly better than on paper by wide margins.
And I think both offenses are going to put up a few points, like we saw in the USF-North Texas game.
The Bulls are second in the American in scoring offense with 40.7 points per game, and FAU is sixth with 32.8 PPG. Both USF (468.3 yards per game) and FAU (442.8 yards per contest) are in the top four in the league in total offense.
Meanwhile, FAU is second-to-last in the conference in scoring defense, having allowed 33.3 points per game. USF is slightly better, as the Bulls rank sixth with 24.7 points per game allowed.
But considering the opponents each team has beaten and how those games were won, I believe it’s clear USF is the better team. I anticipate quarterback Byrum Brown will tally plenty of yards with his arm and his legs. I also believe USF’s defense, led by linebackers Jhalyn Shuler and Mac Harris, will frustrate FAU’s offense early on to establish the tone of the game before the Bulls pull away in the second half.
Central Michigan vs. Bowling Green Prediction
I predict Bowling Green will win and cover the 3.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 43.5 total points.
These two teams are incredibly evenly matched in several statistical categories. The Falcons are seventh in the MAC in scoring offense (22.3 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (25.3 PPG allowed) while CMU is eighth in both scoring offense (21.8 PPG) and in scoring defense (28.8 PPG).
Even when considering some of their strengths, I expect it to be a close battle. For example, CMU is top three in the MAC in rushing offense (188.5 yards per game) while Bowling Green is fourth in rushing defense (139.8 YPG allowed).
But after what we saw from both of these teams in their latest contests, I like how Bowling Green is playing recently. Led by Falcons linebacker Gideon Lampron, who leads the team with 57 tackles, I think BGSU’s defense will make critical plays down the stretch to help the Falcons win at home.
Army vs. Tulane Prediction
I predict Tulane will win but Army will cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
Both of these teams have strong defenses and rely on their running games to move the ball on offense. I think this could be a close, low-scoring contest.
Both Tulane and Army are top five in the American in scoring defense, as the Green Wave have given up 23.2 points per game and Army has allowed 24 PPG.
They’ve been especially strong in that area lately. Army limited UAB and Charlotte to a combined 20 points in its last two games, and the Green Wave held Tulsa to 14 points and East Carolina to 19 points in their last two victories.
Army’s running game could be a problem for Tulane. The Black Knights are second in the league only behind Navy with 282.7 yards per game on the ground, and the Green Wave are in the bottom half of the conference in rushing defense (149.7 YPG allowed).
But I think Tulane, especially at home, will be just a little bit better.
Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 1,167 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions while leading the team with 388 yards and seven TDs on the ground. I think he’ll make important plays – especially through the air in a matchup like this.
I also anticipate Tulane’s stars on defense, like defensive backs Jack Tchienchou and Bailey Despanie and linebackers Dickson Agu and Sam Howard, will step up to the occasion in a winning effort.
Washington State vs. Virginia Prediction
I predict Virginia will win but Washington State will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 55.5 total points.
I really like how Wazzu’s defense is playing in recent weeks – and for most of the season for that matter. The Cougars have given up just 27 points in their past two games, both on the road, against Colorado State and Ole Miss. And outside of their two losses against North Texas and Washington, Wazzu allowed an average of 12.5 points per game in its four other contests.
And I think the Cougars will go on the road again and play well on that side of the ball.
Now, this is three straight games where Washington State is on the road. And this is also a good Virginia team that the Cougars are taking on.
Virginia has scored at least 30 points in every game thus far, and before its win at Louisville, the Cavaliers had put up at least 46 points in three straight contests. Quarterback Chandler Morris has thrown for 1,428 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 70% completion rate while rushing for 176 yards and four scores. J’Mari Taylor leads the Cavaliers with 465 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. Three UVA players have at least 20 catches and 200 yards through the air.
I think the Cavaliers will move the ball, but I don’t know if it will be at quite the same rate that they’re used to.
Nevada vs. New Mexico Prediction
I predict New Mexico will win and cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 49.5 total points.
There’s little reason for optimism with Nevada. Having watched the Wolf Pack’s loss against San Diego State, the Aztecs were clicking in all three phases of the game. With Nevada’s record being what it is, I don’t think the confidence level is very high there right now.
New Mexico, though, is highly motivated to win this game. The Lobos have the talent to compete for a Mountain West title, in my opinion, but they need to prove it.
And if they can’t make it to the conference championship, at the very least they’ll want to make it to a bowl game.
Scoring hasn’t exactly been a strength for either team this season. New Mexico is seventh in the Mountain West in scoring offense, averaging 29.17 points per game, while Nevada is last with 14.5 PPG. On the other hand, the Lobos are seventh in scoring defense with 27 PPG allowed, and Nevada is right behind at eighth with 28.67 PPG given up.
I do believe this will be a low-scoring battle. But I think New Mexico’s offense, led by quarterback Jack Layne, and defense, led by linebacker Jaxton Eck, will play complementary football at home en route to a win.
