UTSA and head coach Jeff Traylor have faced a lot of criticism so far this season because of the Roadrunners’ sluggish start after expectations were high.
They put much of that to rest last week in a 61-13 drubbing over Rice. As they were not 50-point underdogs, the Owls failed to cover the spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
Hopefully this week’s selection will look a little more prepared to play.
Hawaii (Spread +3, Moneyline +120) vs. Colorado State
I worry about the Rainbow Warriors making the far trip to Fort Collins, but they made a similar trip to Colorado Springs two weeks ago and had no problems in a 44-35 win over Air Force. The weather should also be relatively warm for this Saturday afternoon affair.
CSU wasn’t looking great prior to last week’s win over Fresno State. The Rams were 1-4 and very well could have been 0-5 if it wasn’t for a favorable ruling on a late touchdown call against Northern Colorado which decided the game.
The Bulldogs continuously made mistakes and finished with four turnovers and 13 penalties in the loss to the Rams. Credit to CSU as it scored 21 points off those turnovers, and that doesn’t include the two TDs scored after Fresno State’s two turnovers on downs.
However, I don’t expect the Rams to have another showing like that and I believe Hawaii is simply the better team here and will find a way to win.
The Rainbow Warriors rank last in the Mountain West with just 99 rushing yards per game. However, they’re third-to-last in the league with only 203 rushing attempts. They just don’t run the ball a ton and have been beating teams behind freshman Micah Alejado’s arm. I expect them to continue to lean on the passing attack, but I think they find success this week on the ground against a CSU defense that’s allowing 180 rushing YPG.
If UH is able to find a little bit of success rushing, that should open things up even more for Alejado.
I also think the Rainbow Warriors will have some success getting into the backfield and disrupting the Rams’ offense with drive-stalling plays. That’s been one of their strengths this season, and they’re tied for first in the MW in both tackles for loss (37) and sacks (16). CSU has allowed 38 TFLs and 15 sacks.
Hawaii is 5-2 against the spread this year and 3-1 as an underdog. UH has been an underdog in each of the last four meetings against the Rams and has covered the spread in each.
Honorable Mentions
Central Michigan (+4.5, +165) vs. Bowling Green
I am a firm believer in letdowns after big wins, and I think Bowling Green falls in that category after a big win over Toledo.
I also am a believer in teams bouncing back after disappointing losses, and CMU falls in that category after losing to Akron two weeks ago.
The Chippewas are coming off their bye eager to get over that loss while BGSU is still riding high. The Falcons also won last week’s game without starting quarterback Drew Pyne, and it’s unclear if he’ll be back or not.
This makes it difficult for the Chippewas to prepare, but they’ve had two weeks so I think that’ll help.
CMU also plays multiple QBs including Angel Flores, who does a lot of damage with his legs. BGSU struggled against Ohio’s dual-threat QB Parker Navarro two weeks ago. The Chippewas are averaging 188.5 rushing YPG and I think can find success on the ground and churn out long possessions to keep this a low-scoring, close game. They lead the MAC in time of possession.
The underdog is 4-1 in these last five meetings.
UTSA (+4.5, +165) vs. North Texas
The Roadrunners showed some life last week, and I think that performance may have been a glimpse of what’s to come. We’ll certainly know more this week.
Regardless of what we’ve seen from UTSA so far, I have a lot of faith in Traylor, and with him still leading this team, I think UTSA will be dangerous. If they’re going to make any type of run at an American title, they’ll need a win this week.
UTSA is 27-16 ATS in conference games under Traylor.
Northern Illinois (+11.5, +350) vs. Ohio
This program has seen bumpy starts to the season under head coach Thomas Hammock, but they still always seem to clean things up come conference play.
Now at 1-5, the Huskies really have nothing to lose. But I expect they’ll keep battling to keep themselves in each game.
NIU is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog under Hammock.
