Let’s dive right into this … I appreciate the questions and engagement.
Question from Isaac:
Do you have any information on Western realignment? (Like UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, or St. Mary’s?) Also, is the WCC the only conference actively courting UC Irvine?
Answer:
For now, the West is quiet—but quiet doesn’t always last. The UC San Diego move to the WCC blindsided everyone, so anything is possible.
The next major headline should be the Pac-12 v2.0 TV deal. We’ve heard pieces, but not the full picture. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mountain West finalizes its media package before the Pac-12 does.
Both leagues will land in decent spots. The MWC should pull slightly more money than before, and the Pac-12 schools that left will likely see modest gains in their new deals. Behind the scenes, the Pac-12 is exploring (and closing in on) new revenue streams and hiring leadership—healthy signs.
Now for a small Smurth-bomb: there’s growing optimism that the ACC could face turbulence in the coming years. The hope—emphasis on hope—is that Cal and Stanford could someday find their way back home to a rebuilt Pac-12. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.
As for UC Irvine, they’re stable. If they move, the Mountain West feels more likely than the WCC. The WCC has resources, thanks to Gonzaga’s exit, and has put out some feelers, but nothing has come of it yet.
And St. Mary’s? They’ll go to the highest bidder, which right now is still the WCC. I don’t think UC San Diego joined without knowing St. Mary’s is staying put for a few more years.
So for now, the West rests—but probably not for long.
Battle Cattle Asks:
Is it possible to restore college athletics to the structure we had in the early 2010s, but just add NIL and revenue-sharing components? Keeping the integrity of what made college athletics great, while still allowing players to make money? Or is that gone forever?
Answer:
Is it possible? Absolutely.
Is it likely? No.
In reality, things aren’t that different from 2010 aside from NIL and revenue sharing. The difference is that there’s now ten times more money, and expenses have ballooned with it. That’s the real driver of realignment.
The toothpaste is out of the tube and we’re not getting it back in. I often wonder what would have happened if the NCAA hadn’t lost its mind over the old “Fruits, Nuts, and Bagels” rule.
From the 2010–11 rulebook:
“An institution may provide fruit, nuts, and bagels to a student-athlete at any time.”
Yes, that was real. And in your 2010s timeline reference. People even debated whether cream cheese was a violation. If the NCAA hadn’t panicked when coaches and athletes simply asked for peanut butter, maybe the system would have evolved differently.
Some things are better now, some worse. The pageantry and alumni passion still exist, but everything feels a little more professional. And honestly, we made it that way through coaching contracts, TV deals and soaring revenues.
Question from Literally Everybody:
Is the OVC done for if this happens? Does the “moratorium” that was recently passed prevent them from dipping into Division II to reload?
Answer:
My first reaction was the same: the OVC is cooked. But after looking more closely, this might actually help them in the long term.
The moratorium isn’t new. Something similar happened in the late 2000s and ended in 2012, when schools were jumping divisions and TV money was just becoming a factor. The new freeze lasts until February 2027 and blocks new DII or DIII schools from moving up unless they had a written invitation before August 5, 2025.
Could a school still sneak through early? Technically yes, but it would take legal wrangling. Realistically, 2026–27 is the next real window.
If SEMO and UT Martin leave for the UAC, the OVC would be left with:
- SIU Edwardsville
- Tennessee State
- Lindenwood
- Morehead State
- Eastern Illinois
- Western Illinois
- Southern Indiana
That’s seven schools, the NCAA minimum to stay a multisport conference with both men’s and women’s basketball. (FYI: Another question below asks about football playing minimums)
Not cooked, but on thin ice. The league’s new ESPN deal includes a local rebroadcast carveout that gives it flexibility and visibility most don’t have. That’s a real advantage when trying to survive.
Question from SSN – Charleston Southern:
With UT Martin and SEMO rumored to the UAC and Tennessee Tech leaving, what’s next for the OVC–Big South alliance?
Answer:
Not to overlap too much with the above, but there’s still a little safety here.
To keep its FCS automatic playoff bid, a conference needs six eligible members. Those must be four-year schools that meet Division I standards.
I don’t think the OVC–Big South will just wave goodbye to UT Martin and SEMO. There’ll be an exit fee—small but helpful. And remember, the moratorium ends soon enough. Even if the league dips below six football members, it has a probationary window to replace them before losing its playoff status.
The foundation looks shaky, but there’s still time and a few options left to play.
Reader DCon Asks:
I saw that the NCAA revised its rules on gambling. What are the restrictions that still exist? What does this free people in college athletics to do?
Answer:
Great question. As someone who travels often through Las Vegas and has worked on sports betting projects with the University of Hawai‘i, this one hits home.
Right now, the core rules remain: no betting on anything tied to a professional league in the U.S. or Europe, which means no college sports or NCAA-sponsored events. That late-night badminton match in Thailand your app offers? Technically allowed.
The Division I Administrative Committee recently adopted a proposal to let student-athletes and athletic staff bet on professional sports. Divisions II and III will vote later this month, and if all agree, the rule will take effect on November 1. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that it doesn’t go through.
Even if it does, college sports betting and the sharing of insider info will remain off-limits. Ads or sponsorships related to betting will still be banned for NCAA Championships (for now).
It’s not a full green light, but it’s the first step. You can bet on that.
Question from 42,081 individuals:
What about the ASUN? Will they expand, too? Seven schools aren’t sustainable.
Answer:
Yes, expansion is coming. I expect the ASUN to get back to eight or nine members soon. Several Division II programs have explored moving up: West Florida, Lincoln Memorial, Nova Southeastern, and Tampa all make sense.
The ASUN is in a good place. The WAC–ASUN–UAC consortium gives them flexibility and shared infrastructure—a rare kind of stability in this climate.
To keep the Halloween theme going, I think of a line from World War Z:
Movimiento es vida.
Movement is life.
The WAC, ASUN, and UAC have lived that motto. Every move they’ve made has been about survival.
And if you’re wondering why take on DII schools, many already operate like mid-major DI programs. Some DIII schools do too. The ASUN may look light, but they’re not fragile.
Question (from an anonymous account in my DMs):
Who is the next FCS head coach to get hired by an FBS program?
Answer:
Brent Vigen or Tim Polasek — but since you only asked for one, I’ll go with Brent Vigen.
I’m working on a deeper project about FCS-to-FBS coaching candidates, so I won’t go too far into detail here, but stay tuned. Coach Vigen was really close to leaving for an FBS job last year. This time around, I think it happens.
He’s got the résumé. Vigen was part of the North Dakota State dynasty, spent six seasons under Craig Bohl at Wyoming, and has racked up 50-plus wins in Bozeman since 2021. Shoutout to Leon Costello too — the culture of success at Montana State is strong, but that shouldn’t take away from what Vigen’s built as a head coach.
Closing Thoughts
This was fun, and just remember …
Movement is life.
Thanks for participating everybody!
