No. 4 seed Tarleton State hosts No. 12 seed Villanova in the FCS quarterfinals. The winner will face either Illinois State or No. 8 UC Davis.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 135-48
2024 Record: 126-40
Tarleton State vs. Villanova On TV
The matchup between Tarleton State and Villanova airs nationally on ESPN.
Kickoff is at 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 13. It takes place at Memorial Stadium in Stephenville, TX.
Tarleton State vs. Villanova Preview
Tarleton State is in the driver’s seat to reach Nashville on its side of the bracket. With No. 1 NDSU getting upset last week, Tarleton now owns home-field advantage. The Texans have the second-best odds to win the FCS championship at +175, trailing Montana State’s +100.
They first have to battle a hot Villanova team, though.
The Wildcats have won 10 straight. They walloped Harvard 52-7 in the first round, a game viewed as a 50/50 contest. Last week, Nova went to No. 5 seed Lehigh and won 14-7, handing the Mountain Hawks their first and only loss of the season.
Nova’s defense will need to continue meeting the moment. Tarleton leads the FCS with 44.1 points per game and is PFF’s No. 1 overall FCS offense. The Texans can attack you in multiple ways, throwing for 267.9 yards per game (No. 12 in the FCS) and rushing for 204.5 YPG (also No. 12). Their slow-mesh RPO concept puts linebackers and defensive backs in conflict, and Tarleton’s rushing attack is equally as concerning as its passing attack.
Multi-year starter Victor Gabalis has thrown for 2,687 yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions this season. His top target is Peyton Kramer, who has hauled in 50 catches for 920 yards and seven touchdowns. Cody Jackson has 799 receiving yards and six touchdowns, although he left last week’s game with an injury. Trevon West is another dangerous weapon with 41 catches for 713 yards and four scores. Dawson Hearne has scored six touchdowns at tight end.
Tarleton has shown off its depth at running back all year. Tre Page III still leads the team with 839 yards on the ground. But he hasn’t played since October. Tylan Hines was expected to be a top RB, but he got hurt in Week 0. He has returned for the last three games and has been fabulous, rushing for 80, 215, and 120 yards.
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Villanova’s defense allows 20.2 points per game (No. 18 in the FCS), 133.1 rushing YPG (No. 29), and 201.4 passing YPG (No. 40).
Shane Hartzell is a top linebacker in the FCS, tallying 87 tackles, 15 TFLs, and eight sacks this season. Zahmir Dawud is a talented cornerback and has 41 tackles, 10 pass breakups, and an interception. He will be tested all game.
Villanova hasn’t generated a lot of negative plays, averaging just 4.9 TFLs to rank No. 90 in the FCS. Keeping Tarleton behind schedule will be key. Villanova’s PFF pass-rush grade is No. 12 in the FCS, but its coverage grade is No. 69.
Tarleton’s offense is very explosive. Nova will have to match that when it has the ball, but be careful not to force anything. The Texans are +30 in turnover margin, leading the FCS by 12 (NDSU is No. 2 at +18). The Texans are also No. 1 in team interceptions with 23, led by Kasyus Kurns’ six.
Nova is scoring 31.0 points per game, ranking No. 32 in the FCS. It wants to run the ball to set up the pass. The Wildcats have been without standout RB David Avit since early November. But Ja’briel Mace has stepped up to now lead the squad with 736 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Pat McQuaide has had a strong season after transferring from Nicholls. He’s taken care of the ball, completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,744 yards, 23 TDs, and two interceptions. Luke Colella is the go-to target, recording 68 catches for 942 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Texans will have to contend with a physical offensive line again. They showed their ability to do that in last week’s 31-13 win over North Dakota, holding their powerful rushing attack to 136 yards on 28 attempts. Most of that damage was done on QB scrambles.
Tarleton’s offense gets a lot of love, but its defense is No. 10 in points allowed (18.0 PPG). AJ Owens leads the unit with 89 tackles, while Yasir Holmes has 13 TFLs.
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Tarleton State vs. Villanova Prediction
If Villanova wants to win on Saturday, Pat McQuaide has to play the best game of his career. It’s hard to see Nova finding much success on the ground, especially after seeing what Tarleton did to UND’s ground game last week.
Tarleton is No. 4 in FCS tackles for loss, totaling 97. Villanova’s run-blocking grade is No. 105 on PFF. Villanova will have to air it out, and that isn’t in its comfort zone, especially against a ball-hawking secondary.
Villanova will bring good physicality to this game. But Tarleton has shown it can match that physicality. And the overall team speed on the Texans looks superior to Nova’s. I don’t see Villanova’s offense keeping pace. The Wildcats will be playing from behind and out of their game, and that’s when turnovers could happen despite McQuaide taking good care of the ball this year. His 23:2 TD:INT ratio is much better than his 27:22 in two years at Nicholls.
A +30 turnover margin for Tarleton is wild. The Texans will have a chance to add to that on Saturday.
Prediction: Tarleton State 31-17
