Middle Tennessee Football Prediction: Game-By-Game Predictions for the Blue Raiders in 2020

College football programs fail to win five games in a season all the time; last year, 38 did it, while 35 did it in 2018, and 34 did it in 2017. Middle Tennessee doesn't fail to win five games.

One of the most consistent programs the country over the last decade (and more wins from 2012-18 than West Virginia, Texas, Washington State, and more than 70 other FBS programs), Middle Tennessee wins six, seven, or eight games every year. That's what Rick Stockstill has built in Murfreesboro. Last year's four-win team didn't feel like a Rick Stockstill team and now the Blue Raiders are using an unusual offseason to fix several issues that plagued the program's worst team in nearly a decade.

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Middle Tennessee, ranked 117th in the HERO Sports Preseason College Football Rankings, returns 82 percent of their offensive production but only 51 percent of their defensive production, the 101st-most in the country. They were unusually terrible across the board in Scott Shafter's third season as coordinator, ranking 101st in opponents' yards per play, 97th in third-down conversions, 104th in yards per rush, and a staggering 129th in sack rate. They had 11 sacks in 12 games, the fewest in Stockstill's 13 seasons. 

I'm predicting a Rice-like season for the Blue Raiders in 2020: Several close losses and a much better team than the record suggests. Closes losses against Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, FIU, and Rice keep them from returning to bowl eligibility.

That being said, there are eight (or nine) wins on this schedule, giving Middle Tennessee a wide range for their win total.