Just when you think you know a little somethin' somethin' about college football odds, the unthinkable happens right out of the gate.
As you know by now, Howard not only covered the +45 against UNLV last Saturday, they beat the Runnin' Rebels outright by the score of 43-40. The Bison upset was the largest in college football point spread history.
It also capped off pretty much the worst week ever for UNLV.
RELATED: A $100 Parlay on California, Maryland, Liberty, and Howard Was Worth $197,684,000
Some of the predictions I made last week about Alabama and Navy were spot on. Others like Wyoming … not so much.
This week I'd advise you to keep a close eye on the weather in the south. If there are torrential rains and high winds, taking the under on impacted games could be a smart play. It sure was last year when Hurricane Matthew turned NC State versus Notre Dame into a sloppy 10-3 affair.
Let's get to some predictions and picks, including which point spreads you should be taking a very serious look at.
[All spreads are courtesy of Sportsbook.ag. Lines fluctuate as bets are made, so check out their website for up-to-the-minute odds.]
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Fresno State +44 at Alabama
Did I call it, or did I call it?
Like I said last week: The Crimson Tide are almost always money in big games and last week's 24-7 win over Florida State easily covered the -7.
That's why I'm going with the historical trend of taking a massive underdog in Tuscaloosa the week after a huge Tide win. Last year they crushed USC in the season opener and failed to cover at home the following week against Western Kentucky. It happened twice in 2015: After defeating Wisconsin in week one it only defeated Middle Tennessee by 27 in week two. They also faced off against an extremely overmatched UL Monroe squad in week 4 and won by the score of just 34-0.
It was the same deal in 2013 when they beat Johnny Manziel and #6 Texas A&M in week two only to slog its way to a 31-6 win over Colorado State the following week.
Take Fresno State and new coach Jeff Tedford to cover, and if Bama wins 45-0 I'll eat my words.
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Navy -13.5 versus Tulane
One of the more interesting betting lines this week comes out of Annapolis as Navy is once against favored by less than 14 points. I called this one last week against FAU as the line closed at most books around -9.5. People were betting on Lane Kiffin and not the fact that the Owls were awful at stopping the run last year and were no better in Friday night's 42-19 game against the Midshipmen.
Sure, Tulane routed Grambling last week, but Navy at -13.5 and at home is just too good to pass up.
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Buffalo +16.5 at Army
Opening at Buffalo 17.5, don't be surprised to see this line move even more Saturday morning.
The Bulls have a highly underrated weapon in quarterback Tyree Jackson. The 6-foot-8, 245-pound signal-caller made some nice throws last week against Minnesota and kept his team close before falling 17-7 to the Gophers. He should see a lot of opportunities on Saturday to outrun and run over an undersized Black Knights defense.
They may not win, but take the Bulls and all those fabulous points.
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South Florida -17.5 at Connecticut
I can't quite put my finger on it, but this feels like Quinton Flowers' breakout game.
The under-the-radar Heisman hopeful has been pedestrian this season after throwing for just 186 yards last week on 19 of 32 passing against FCS foe Stony Brook. This is his chance to show a national audience on ESPN just how talented he is.
It won't hurt that he'll be throwing against a Huskies' defense that finished 107 nationally last year against the pass and just squeaked by Holy Cross last week 27-20.
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Kansas State -36.5 versus Charlotte
Let's review some of last week's biggest point spreads that didn't involve Howard.
Clemson -38 versus Kent State: Tigers won 56-3.
Penn State -30 versus Akron: Nittany Lions won 52-0.
Oklahoma -24 versus UTEP: Sooners won 56-7.
Considering Charlotte is on the road for the second straight week, and that it didn't cover the -14 last week to Eastern Michigan, I like the Wildcats to dominate this game by at least six touchdowns.
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Ball State and UAB
Call this the I-have-no-freakin'-clue game of the day.
The line is Ball State -12.5, but considering this is only UAB's second game of the season after a two year hiatus from football you have a wonderful recipe for Heck If I Know Casserole.
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Pittsburgh +21 at Penn State
This opened at plus 20, but betters have shifted the line one point already.
My theory on rivalry games: When in doubt, take the team getting a lot of points. I know the Panthers needed overtime last week against Youngstown State, but I have to imagine they will give such a hated rival everything it can handle on Saturday.
Plus, don't forget what Pitt did to an extremely talented Penn State squad last year.
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ALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL ODDS FOR WEEK 2
Friday, September 8
Ohio at Purdue (-4.5)
Oklahoma State (-28.5) at South Alabama
Saturday, September 9
Hawaii at UCLA (-22.5)
Central Michigan at Kansas (-5.5)
Nebraska at Oregon (-14)
Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin (-32)
Buffalo at Army (-16.5)
Western Michigan at Michigan State (-8)
Eastern Michigan at Rutgers (-4)
Old Dominion (-3) at UMass
Northwestern (-3.5) at Dule
South Florida (-17.5) at UConn
East Carolina at West Virginia (-24)
Cincinnati at Michigan (-34)
Louisville (-8.5) at North Carolina
Charlotte at Kansas State (-36.5)
Iowa (-2) at Iowa State
Wake Forest at Boston College (-2)
New Mexico State at New Mexico (-7.5)
Rice at UTEP (Pick)
Texas State at Colorado (-36.5)
UAB at Ball State (-12.5)
Middle Tennessee at Syracuse (-9)
Indiana (-2.5) at Virginia
Pittsburgh at Penn State (-21)
Fresno State at Alabama (-44)
Tulane at Navy (-13.5)
Western Kentucky (-8.5) at Illinois
UTSA at Baylor (-17)
Miami (FL) (-14.5) at Arkansas State
San Jose State at Texas (-27)
TCU (-3) at Arkansas
Louisiana at Tulsa (-16)
Marshall at NC State (-24)
Toledo (-9.5) at Nevada
Louisiana Monroe at Florida State (-31.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-2.5)
North Texas at SMU (-13)
Auburn at Clemson (-5.5)
Georgia at Notre Dame (-6.5)
Mississippi State (-7) at Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma at Ohio State (-7.5)
Memphis at UCF (-1)
Stanford at USC (-7)
UNLV at Idaho (-7)
Minnesota at Oregon State (-2)
San Diego State at Arizona State (-4)
Utah at BYU (-1)
Houston (-1) at Arizona
Boise State at Washington State (-8.5)
