No team has lost their Week 1 game and made the College Football Playoff. Of the 16 playoff teams since 2014, only two have lost a game in September, and five of the 13 one-loss playoff teams didn't lose until November. Odds are not in the favor of teams who lose early, though the loser of the biggest Week 1 game this season — Washington vs. Auburn — can become the third September loser and the first Week 1 loser to make the playoff.
A two-loss team will eventually make a four-team playoff, but the margin for error is thin, especially for a Washington team that plays only one top-25 (Sagarin Ratings) after Week 1 (vs. Stanford, Week 10). History, as shallow as it may be, however, is on their side if they finish 12-1. No one-loss Power Five conference champion (who played a conference championship game) has ever been left out of the College Football Playoff.
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Washington was in a similar situation in 2016. While they didn't play — or lose — a premier Week 1 game, they did lose a Week 11 game to a USC team that finished ninth in the CFP Rankings. They had a couple good wins over Stanford (18th in the Final CFP Rankings) and Utah (19th) but the rest of their regular-season schedule was laced with two- and three-win teams, a bucket that could be filled with UCLA, Colorado, Oregon State and others this season.
| Date | Opponent |
|---|---|
| Saturday, Sept. 1 | vs. Auburn |
| Saturday, Sept. 8 | vs. North Dakota |
| Saturday, Sept. 15 | at Utah |
| Saturday, Sept. 22 | vs. Arizona State |
| Saturday, Sept. 29 | vs. BYU |
| Saturday, Oct. 6 | at UCLA |
| Saturday, Oct. 13 | at Oregon |
| Saturday, Oct. 20 | vs. Colorado |
| Saturday, Oct. 27 | at Cal |
| Saturday, Nov. 3 | vs. Stanford |
| Saturday, Nov. 10 | BYE |
| Saturday, Nov. 17 | vs. Oregon State |
| Friday, Nov. 23 | at Washington State |
| Friday, Nov. 23 | Pac-12 Championship |
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In the 2016 Pac-12 Championship, Washington pummeled Colorado, who entered the game eighth in the Week 13 CFP Rankings (and finished 10th)to officially clinch a playoff spot. However, the Huskies would've likely earned a spot over Penn State with a worse win.
If they lose to Auburn in Week 1, win their other 11 regular-season games and, instead of beating a top-10 USC team in the Pac-12 Championship, beat a three-loss Utah or Arizona, Washington will make the College Football Playoff as a one-loss Power Five champion.
